Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    It is by far the most famous building in the world and the lady who lives there, Queen Elizabeth 11, is easily the most famous woman on the planet. Her Majesty employs some 1,200 men and women, full and part-time, permanent and temporary in her various Royal residences with over 400 working for her at Buckingham Palace alone. So, what is she like to work for? Is she a generous employer? Does she encourage friendliness among those whose salaries she pays or does she prefer to keep her distance? Is it true she hates her servants to have facial hair – beards or moustaches? Why do the housemaids have to vacuum while walking backwards at all times? How are the servants told to react when they meet the Queen or any member of her family? What’s the money like? In many ways Her Majesty is a model employer, providing food, drink and accommodation, at the best address in London, to her staff, but one thing she does not offer is high wages. So why do most of them stay for many years? This book gives all the answers from the inside. Brian Hoey has written 26 books about Britain’s Royal Family and as a former reporter and presenter with BBC Television and Radio he has interviewed Prince Charles, Princess Anne ( whose official biography he wrote), the Duke of Edinburgh and the late Diana, Princess of Wales. Hoey was a television commentator at the wedding of Charles and Diana in 1981 and again, sadly, in 1997 at the funeral of Diana, He has also interviewed many of Hollywood’s Royalty including; Richard Burton and Elizabeth Taylor, Ray Milland, Cary Grant, David Niven, Gregory Peck, Sophia Loren, Kirk Douglas, Jean Simmons and he conducted the final TV interview with Charlie Chaplin.

    But radio came roaring back with a whole new concept. The war was over, the baby boom was on, the country was in clover, and a bold new beat was giving the syrupy songs of yesteryear a run for their money. Add transistors, 45 rpm records, and a young man named Elvis to the mix, and the result was the perfect storm that rocked, rolled, and reinvented radio.Visionary entrepreneurs like Todd Storz pioneered the Top 40 concept, which united a generation. But it took trendsetting “disc jockeys” like Alan Freed, Murray the K, Wolfman Jack, Cousin Brucie, and their fast-talking, too-cool-for-school counterparts across the land to turn time, temperature, and the same irresistible hit tunes played again and again into the ubiquitous sound track of the fifties and sixties. The Top 40 sound broke through racial barriers, galvanized coming-of-age kids (and scandalized their perplexed parents), and provided the insistent, inescapable backbeat for times that were a-changin’.Along with rock-and-roll music came the attitude that would literally change the “voice” of radio forever, via the likes of raconteur Jean Shepherd, who captivated his loyal following of “Night People”; the inimitable Bob Fass, whose groundbreaking Radio Unnameable inaugurated the anything-goes free-form style that would come to define the alternative frontier of FM; and a small-time Top 40 deejay who would ultimately find national fame as a political talk-show host named Rush Limbaugh.From Hunter Hancock, who pushed beyond the limits of 1950s racial segregation with rhythm and blues and hepcat patter, to Howard Stern, who blew through all the limits with a blue streak of outrageous on-air antics; from the heyday of summer songs that united carefree listeners to the latter days of political talk that divides contentious callers; from the haze of classic rock to the latest craze in hip-hop, Something in the Air chronicles the extraordinary evolution of the unique and timeless medium that captured our hearts and minds, shook up our souls, tuned in–and turned on–our consciousness, and went from being written off to rewriting the rules of pop culture.

    You read the papers. You look at the television. But you never think it will happen to you. It happened to me one evening.” One summer night in 1978, Hugues de Montalembert returned home to his New York City apartment to find two men robbing him. In a violent struggle, one of the assailants threw paint thinner in Hugues’ face. Within a few hours, he was completely blind.Eloquent and provocative, Invisible moves beyond the horrific events of that night to what happened to Hugues after he lost his sight: his rehabilitation, his solo travels around the world, and the remarkable way he learned to “see” even without the use of his eyes.Without a trace of self-pity, Hugues describes his transition from an up-and-coming painter to a blind man who had to learn to walk with a cane. His status changed in the eyes of other people as their reactions ranged from avoidance to making him their confidant. Hugues traveled to faraway places and learned to trust strangers and find himself at home in any situation.Part philosophy, part autobiography, part inspiration, Invisible will change the way readers understand reality and their place in the world.

    Herein, John Cage recalls the turning point in his career; Ben Johnston criticizes the operas of his teacher Harry Partch; La Monte Young attributes his creative discipline to a Morman childhood; and much more. The results are revelatory conversations with some of America's most radical musical innovators.

    Just read this till the end You don’t have to buy this book. Just read this till end & you will learn something that will change the way you do math forever. Warning: I am revealing this secret only to the first set of readers who will buy this book & plan to put this secret back inside the book once I have enough sales. So read this until the very end while you still can.School taught you the wrong way to do mathThe way you were taught to do math, uses a lot of working memory. Working memory is the short term memory used to complete a mental task. You struggle because trying to do mental math the way you were taught in school, overloads your working memory. Let me show you what I mean with an example:Try to multiply the 73201 x 3. To do this you multiply the following:1 x 3 =0 x 3 =2 x 3 =3 x 3 =7 x 3 =This wasn’t hard, & it might have taken you just seconds to multiply the individual numbers. However, to get the final answer, you need to remember every single digit you calculated to put them back together. It takes effort to get the answer because you spend time trying to recall the numbers you already calculated. Math would be easier to do in your head if you didn’t have to remember so many numbers. Imagine when you tried to multiply 73201 x 3, if you could have come up with the answer, in the time it took you to multiply the individual numbers. Wouldn’t you have solved the problem faster than the time it would have taken you to punch in the numbers inside a calculator? Do the opposite of what you were taught in schoolThe secret of doing mental math is to calculate from left to right instead of from right to left. This is the opposite of what you were taught in school. This works so well because it frees your working memory almost completely. It is called the LR Method where LR stands for Left to Right.Lets try to do the earlier example where we multiplied 73201 x 3. This time multiply from left to right, so we get:7 x 3 = 213 x 3 = 93 x 2 = 60 x 3 = 03 x 1 = 3Notice that you started to call out the answer before you even finished the whole multiplication problem. You don’t have to remember a thing to recall & use later. So you end up doing math a lot faster. The Smart ChoiceYou could use what you learnt & apply it to solve math in the future. This might not be easy, because we just scratched the surface. I've already done the work for you. Why try to reinvent the wheel, when there is already a proven & tested system you can immediately apply. This book was first available in video format & has helped 10,000+ students from 132 countries. It is available at ofpad.com/mathcourse to enroll. This book was written to reach students who consume the information in text format. You can use the simple techniques in this book to do math faster than a calculator effortlessly in your head, even if you have no aptitude for math to begin with.Imagine waking up tomorrow being able to do lightning fast math in your head. Your family & friends will look at you like you are some kind of a genius. Since calculations are done in your head, you will acquire better mental habits in the process. So you will not just look like a genius. You will actually be one. Limited Time BonusWeekly training delivered through email for $97 is available for free as a bonus at the end of this book for the first set of readers. Once we have enough readers, this bonus will be charged $97. Why Price Is So LowThis book is priced at a ridiculous discount only to get our first set of readers. When we have enough readers the price will go up.

    Infused with next-generation candor and optimism, Power Trip examines the ways in which oil and coal have shaped America as an international superpower—even as they posed political and environmental dangers to the nation and the world. Hard-hitting yet optimistic, Power Trip is a manifesto for the younger generations who are inheriting the earth.

    This guide also helps you understand the many data-mining techniques in use today.Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates

    The authors have extensive experience both managing data analysts and conducting their own data analyses, and have carefully observed what produces coherent results and what fails to produce useful insights into data. This book is a distillation of their experience in a format that is applicable to both practitioners and managers in data science.

    Theory and practice in the design of data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception. Aesthetics and data graphical displays. This is the second edition of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Recently published, this new edition provides excellent color reproductions of the many graphics of William Playfair, adds color to other images, and includes all the changes and corrections accumulated during 17 printings of the first edition.

    The general approach of this book to logic remains the same as in earlier editions. Following Aristotle, we regard logic from two different points of view: on the one hand, logic is an instrument or organon for appraising the correctness of reasoning; on the other hand, the principles and methods of logic used as organon are interesting and important topics to be themselves systematically investigated.