Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Levitt's and Stephen J. Dubner's book. This is a summary of Steven D. Levitt's and Stephen J. Dubner's book. It provides a detailed and concise description of their books' content, key ideas and facts. In Think Like a Freak, economist Steven Levitt and journalist Stephen Dubner advice how to master the economic way of thinking described in their previous bestsellers. To say it briefly, thinking like a Freak means being willing to think outside the box. The book offers advice, which may be useful to those who want to make better decisions and achieve better results when dealing with minor issues or major worldwide reforms. The kind of thinking, which is promoted in the book, is inspired by the economic approach. The economic approach is both simpler and broader than merely focusing on the economy. It claims to be independent of ideology, and it uses data in order to understand how the world works, how incentives thrive, how resources are distributed, and what prevents people from getting those resources. --------------------- Book summaries published by Brief, Concise and to the Point Publishing are designed to keep readers up to date and knowledgeable regarding new and significant books. Book summaries are perfect for people, especially busy professionals, who do not have the time to read books in their entirety. The main benefits of reading book summaries published by Brief, Concise and to the Point Publishing: 1. Our book summaries help you save your time and money. Instead of spending days or even weeks reading an important book, simply take one or two hours to read our concise book summary. It will introduce you to the book's primary content, ideas, arguments and facts. It will also help you decide whether it is worthwhile to invest your time and money in the entire book. 2. Our book summaries are truly comprehensive. Some other publishers' superficial book summaries do not exceed 15 to 20 pages, although they are presented as lengthy summaries. Our extensive book summaries include all the essential information you need to know. 3. Our books help you retain more information pertaining to the book's content. Academic studies have proven that people retain more of what they read in a summary as compared with what they remember after reading a book. Please note that according to the U.S. copyright law, the ideas and facts presented in books, as well as book titles, are not protected by copyright law.

    He is a leader in applying computer modeling to social science problems. His book The Evolution of Cooperation has been hailed as a seminal contribution and has been translated into eight languages since its initial publication. The Complexity of Cooperation is a sequel to that landmark book. It collects seven essays, originally published in a broad range of journals, and adds an extensive new introduction to the collection, along with new prefaces to each essay and a useful new appendix of additional resources. Written in Axelrod's acclaimed, accessible style, this collection serves as an introductory text on complexity theory and computer modeling in the social sciences and as an overview of the current state of the art in the field.The articles move beyond the basic paradigm of the Prisoner's Dilemma to study a rich set of issues, including how to cope with errors in perception or implementation, how norms emerge, and how new political actors and regions of shared culture can develop. They use the shared methodology of agent-based modeling, a powerful technique that specifies the rules of interaction between individuals and uses computer simulation to discover emergent properties of the social system. The Complexity of Cooperation is essential reading for all social scientists who are interested in issues of cooperation and complexity.

    Poker's biggest players, such as Phil Ivey (2009 WSOP Main Event Finalist), Johnny Chan, Phil Hellmuth, Doyle Brunson and Daniel Negreanu give first-person accounts of their personal journeys and the key moments in their rise to the top of the poker pantheon. These stories will teach, inspire and make you laugh. Deal Me In humanizes the larger-than-life personalities, allowing the reader to understand more about poker strategy through the trials and errors of the best players in the game. Each poker legend tells his or her own story in the book including: Doyle Brunson, Phil Hellmuth, Daniel Negreanu, Phil Ivey, Annie Duke, Johnny Chan, Chris Jesus Ferguson, Carlos Mortensen, Chau Giang, Jennifer Harman, Allen Cunningham, Howard Lederer, Erik Seidel, Chad Brown, David Devilfish Ulliott, Layne Flack, Scotty Nguyen, Annette Obrestad, Tom Dwan and the 2008 Main Event winner Peter Eastgate.

    Macroeconomics1. Maximizing UtilityDecreasing Marginal Utility | Opportunity Costs2. Evaluating Production PossibilitiesProduction Possibilities Frontiers | Absolute and Comparative Advantage3. DemandDeterminants of Demand | Elasticity of Demand | Change in Demand vs. Change in Quantity Demanded4. SupplyDeterminants of Supply | Elasticity of Supply | Change in Supply vs. Change in Quantity Supplied5. Market EquilibriumHow Market Equilibrium is Reached | The Effect of Changes in Supply and Demand6. Government InterventionPrice Ceilings and Price Floors | Taxes and Subsidies7. Costs of ProductionMarginal Cost of Production | Fixed vs. Variable Costs | Short Run vs. Long Run | Sunk Costs | Economic Costs vs. Accounting Costs8. Perfect CompetitionFirms Are Price Takers | Making Decisions at the Margin | Consumer and Producer Surplus9. MonopolyMarket Power | Deadweight Loss with a Monopoly | Monopolies and Government10. OligopolyCollusion | Cheating the Cartel | Government Intervention in Oligopolies11. Monopolistic CompetitionCompeting via Product Differentiation | Loss of Surplus with Monopolistic CompetitionConclusion: The Insights and Limitations of Economics

    These documents reveal the clandestine dealings of clubs, players and agents at the highest echelons of international football. And the story they tell is astonishing.From the eye-popping details of player transfers including Neymar Jr, Pogba and Coutinho, to the loopholes and opaque tax structures that ensure maximum earnings for players and agents alike, this is a tale rife with rapacious greed and questionable deals. At the same time, it is the gripping story of a fan who wanted to free football from its corrupt overlords - and now finds himself on the run.

     I have described the fundamental concepts of Price Action in the Part I, the basic knowledge which any trader needs. In Part II, I have illustrate seven TRAP setups you can find on any chart, along with examples and studies for you to better understand the TRAP concept. The only consistent setup you will find on every day, every market and every time frame. • Common Trap • The “Stop-Loss” Trap • “The Giant” Trap • “Failed Breakout” Trap • “Back to Back” Trap (Double-Trap) • News Trap • Morning Specials Trap setups come with minimal risk and maximum potential reward. It’s very simple to understand and exploit. This EBook is written in simplest English, that everybody can understand the complexity of market within 1 week.

    On the heels of the most recent economic crisis, America is headed toward another: high inflation and dollar devaluation. Charles Goyette reveals the governmental errors that led to the current economic crisis and the bumpy road ahead. The signs are clear: Federal debt is compounding while growth has stalled, and America's foreign creditors are questioning the dollar's reserve currency status. Meanwhile, the "hidden" federal debt, much larger than the official debt, makes things even worse. So what can you do to safeguard your assets when the dollar heads south? This book is the essential guide for protecting yourself--and even profiting--in this time of financial turbulence. In clear detail, Goyette explains the alternative investments--from gold and silver to oil and agriculture-- that will remain strong in the face of mounting inflation. The Dollar Meltdown gives you the tools to maintain the value of your savings and captilize on the coming opportunities. Don't get left holding the bag after decades of government irresponsibility. The Dollar Meltdown shows you how to take the safety of your finances into your own hands.

    Robert Gibbons addresses scholars in applied fields within economics who want a serious and thorough discussion of game theory but who may have found other works overly abstract. Gibbons emphasizes the economic applications of the theory at least as much as the pure theory itself; formal arguments about abstract games play a minor role. The applications illustrate the process of model building--of translating an informal description of a multi-person decision situation into a formal game-theoretic problem to be analyzed. Also, the variety of applications shows that similar issues arise in different areas of economics, and that the same game-theoretic tools can be applied in each setting. In order to emphasize the broad potential scope of the theory, conventional applications from industrial organization have been largely replaced by applications from labor, macro, and other applied fields in economics. The book covers four classes of games, and four corresponding notions of equilibrium: static games of complete information and Nash equilibrium, dynamic games of complete information and subgame-perfect Nash equilibrium, static games of incomplete information and Bayesian Nash equilibrium, and dynamic games of incomplete information and perfect Bayesian equilibrium.

    A journey of self-realization and renewed assessment of our lives, marked by silly anecdotes, mindless distractions, and everyday truths. This book is a humorous retelling of the author’s personal blunders and mind-boggling human behavior in general, strung together by a series of hilarious open letters. It is a modest pursuit to deliver a little relief, and diversion from the pandemic’s grim realities. It’s also an attempt to reaffirm the need for a good laugh to help deal with the doom and gloom that now surrounds our lives. Each letter picks up a relatable theme of our lockdown life – be it our obsession with baking banana bread, growing out our beards, or finding the fanciest holiday homes in Goa. What comes out, is a light and delightful offering that anyone living in this era shouldn’t miss. “A breezy read that goes well with your evening tea (like Marie Gold) or finds a permanent spot on your nightstand. A perfect picker-upper if you're feeling down, it reminded me of Bill Bryson's 'A Short History of Nearly Everything' and Hugh Prather's 'Notes to Myself'.”- Manish Bhatt, Founder/CCO August Communications“Hits a cord with everyone who has left the rat race of ‘acquiring new skills’. It is honest, straightforward, and downright hilarious. I loved the book. I found it clutter-breaking, relatable and non-preachy.” - Shilpi Agarwal, Blogger @bookgasmicSome important information:o The book is part memoir, part random lists and part mean musings.o It celebrates the ability to find humor in unexpected predicaments and life in general.o It’s a collection of letters addressed to the most unlikely of receivers, filled with pithy observations, irreverent and ruthless humor about the little idiosyncrasies of life in lockdown.o Each of these perfectly bite sized letters are wonderful accompaniments to the massive mood swings that is our reality in the times of corona.o Under no circumstance, this book is to be taken seriously, seriously.Savor this quick pick-me-up with a hot cup, a pinch of salt and a great deal of grins."

    

    Auditing is perhaps our single best defense in ensuring the integrity of our financial reporting system. That's why this new Eighth Edition of Boynton and Johnson's Modern Auditing focuses on decision making and the critical role auditors play in providing assurance about the integrity of the financial reporting system. Known for its clear writing and accessibility, this text provides comprehensive and integrated coverage of current developments in the environment, standards, and methodology of auditing. Features * Real-world examples relate issues discussed in the chapter to ethics, audit decision making, and the integrity of the financial reporting system. * Focus on Audit Decisions sections highlight key factors that influence an auditor's decisions. * Includes discussion of the role of the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB) Auditing Standards, and a chapter feature highlights PCAOB standards that differ from Generally Accepted Auditing Standards for private companies. * Expanded case material related to the integrated audit case (Mt. Hood Furniture) provides a variety of databases that allow students to utilize generalized audit software (IDEA) to accomplish various audit tasks. Multiple databases allow the case to be reused with different data from term to term. * A flowchart style chapter preview begins each chapter. * Chapter summaries reinforce important audit decisions included in the chapter. * End-of-chapter material organized by audit decisions provides a clear link between audit decisions discussed in each chapter and the problem material.

    Mitch Feierstein reveals the true debts of Britain, the US government and the eurozone - the full picture, not the figures the politicians would have us believe.In Planet Ponzi, Feierstein explains clearly the background to the world's worst financial crisis for seventy years, predicts the next steps in this infinitely dangerous game and offers practical advice on measures which you personally can take to protect yourself and your family.

    And the subject of these stories—how small and seemingly meaningless decisions and actions by individuals often lead to significant unintended consequences for a large group—is more important than ever. In one famous example, Thomas C. Schelling shows that a slight-but-not-malicious preference to have neighbors of the same race eventually leads to completely segregated populations.The updated edition of this landmark book contains a new preface and the author's Nobel Prize acceptance speech.