Crafting an engrossing journey from the gushing Pennsylvania oil fields of the 1860s to today's fraught and fractious Middle East, Crude Volatility explains how past periods of stability and volatility in oil prices help us understand the new boom-bust era. Oil's notorious volatility has always been considered a scourge afflicting not only the oil industry but also the broader economy and geopolitical landscape; Robert McNally makes sense of how oil became so central to our world and why it is subject to such extreme price fluctuations.Tracing a history marked by conflict, intrigue, and extreme uncertainty, McNally shows how--even from the oil industry's first years--wild and harmful price volatility prompted industry leaders and officials to undertake extraordinary efforts to stabilize oil prices by controlling production. Herculean market interventions--first, by Rockefeller's Standard Oil, then, by U.S. state regulators in partnership with major international oil companies, and, finally, by OPEC--succeeded to varying degrees in taming the beast. McNally, a veteran oil market and policy expert, explains the consequences of the ebbing of OPEC's power, debunking myths and offering recommendations--including mistakes to avoid--as we confront the unwelcome return of boom and bust oil prices.

    The text offers a strong finance foundation focusing on Internet resources and sample number problems, cases, and calculator solutions using a Microsoft Excel appendix. The text introduces the time value of money using three approaches to reinforce the concept--interest tables, financial calculator keystrokes, and investment analysis calculator software created specifically for the Mayo books.

    Written not from a post-crisis perspective – but from a preventative point of view – this book traces the development of financial derivatives from bonds to credit default swaps, and shows how mathematical formulas went beyond pricing to expand their use to the point where they dwarfed the real economy. You'll learn how the deadly allure of their ice-cold beauty has misled generations of economists and investors, and how continued reliance on these formulas can either assist future economic development, or send the global economy into the financial equivalent of a cardiac arrest. Rather than rehash tales of post-crisis fallout, this book focuses on preventing the next one. By exploring the heart of the shadow economy, you'll be better prepared to ride the rough waves of finance into the turbulent future. Delve into one of the world's least-understood but highest-impact industries Understand the key principles of quantitative finance and the evolution of the field Learn what quantitative finance has become, and how it affects us all Discover how the industry's next steps dictate the economy's future How do you create a quadrillion dollars out of nothing, blow it away and leave a hole so large that even years of "quantitative easing" can't fill it – and then go back to doing the same thing? Even amidst global recovery, the financial system still has the potential to seize up at any moment. The Money Formula explores the how and why of financial disaster, what must happen to prevent the next one.

    For the introductory Finance course, given during the junior year and required at all undergraduate business schools.Keown enables students to see the big picture by letting them understand the logic that drives finance rather than having them memorize formulas.

    Using real-world examples and simple language, it lucidly illustrates what derivatives are and why they are so powerful. This second edition of "All About Derivatives" provides a rock-solid foundation on: The most common contracts available to you in today's marketKey concepts such as cost of carry, settlement, valuation, and payoffProven methods for establishing fair valueHow leverage can work for you--and against youThe various derivative contracts traded today, including forwards, futures, swaps, and optionsPricing methods and mathematics for determining fair valueHedging strategies for managing and reducing different types of riskINCLUDES A BRAND-NEW CHAPTER ON THE ROLEDERIVATIVES PLAYED IN THE 2008 FINANCIAL MELTDOWN

    One of the best young portfolio managers on Wall Street, and helping to run the hedge fund operation of one of the world's most prestigious firms, Keith McCullough finds himself a lone voice of reason as the economic crisis of 2008 looms large. Shown the door, his life takes a fascinating turn into the world of independent research and no-holds-barred criticism.Reveals the unvarnished truth of how Wall Street and hedge funds really operate Deftly details how to analyze the markets expertly and avoid group think using technical and fundamental measures Each topic is thoroughly discussed and followed up with lessons you can take away and put to use Written with the authority of someone who knows how Wall Street and hedge funds work, yet accessible to even a casual follower of finance, Diary of a Hedge Fund Manager mixes a constructive critique of the investment industry with fundamental lessons that any investor will find valuable.

    Many retirees or soon-to-be retirees have heard a plethora of advice. Take 100 (or 120) and subtract your age to get your equity allocation, put the rest in bonds or cash. Buy only bonds. Buy only high dividend stocks. Or some combination! Buy equity-indexed annuities or some "guaranteed" income product. All examples of a potentially harmful myth many folks believe to be smart, strategic moves.Investors believe preparing for retirement requires a radically different set of tools or a dizzying array of products. Navigating the world of retirement products and services can be a full-time job. But investing for retirement is, in practice, not much (if at all) different from investing. In Your Retirement Plan, Ken Fisher will give readers a workable strategy to either develop their own retirement investing plan or work more successfully with a professional to increase the likelihood of achieving long-term goals while avoiding common pitfalls. The book will include easy-to-follow steps likeHow to think, correctly, about investing time horizon. How to better figure how much income you need How to determine if a portfolio can provide that income How to figure how much to save each year to achieve retirement goals What pitfalls to avoid And more. . . . In this retirement planning book that's not just for retirees, Fisher will hand readers the tools and confidence they need to better plan for the future.

    The passive investment strategies for wealth building and income generation described in this book have traditionally been used by some of the world’s most sophisticated institutional investors, but are now available to nearly everyone thanks to recent regulatory changes. This handbook will guide you through the process of building your own diversified real estate portfolio by identifying and making investments with established and experienced private real estate operators. This is NOT another get-rich-quick real estate fix & flip scheme. You will NOT be encouraged to sign up for conferences or clubs to learn a no-money-down investment strategy. This IS a practical guide meant to help you avoid common mistakes and navigate more skillfully through an often byzantine industry. You will learn: - What a private real estate investment is; the mechanics of syndicates, funds, and crowdfunding - Fundamentals of basic real estate evaluation - How to evaluate operators and investments - Fees, incentives, and other loads - Common terms and structures - Strategies to evaluate and manage risk - How to create and execute a personalized investment strategy Most people underestimate the time requirements, complexity, risk, and general brain damage involved with buying real estate directly. Thankfully, private real estate investments provide most of the same benefits as direct ownership, while taking advantage of established real estate companies’ years of experience, market knowledge, industry reputation, negotiating leverage, and expertise. Even better, they allow investors to diversify their investment allocation across a range of real estate product types (multifamily, retail, office, self-storage, etc.) and throughout the capital stack (equity, debt, mezzanine, and preferred equity), all while working with specialists in each strategy. Written by an experienced practitioner with over $3 billion in transactional experience, this book challenges conventional wisdom and provides an inside look into how the industry actually works. Using the practical tips and strategies found here, you can build your own unique real estate portfolio, manage risk, avoid common mistakes, hopefully make money, and perhaps even have some fun along the way.

    This series is not for novices. This booklet explores the notion that, as a general rule, no magic policy rich in high-return/low-correlation alternative asset classes exists that will simultaneously preserve upside reward and protect against downside losses. And as long as I'm lowering your expectations, this booklet is most certainly not a blueprint for the "perfect portfolio." You're an adult, after all, so you know that the future efficient frontier lies well beyond our ken; presumably you already know all about the mechanics, long-term benefits, as well as the uncertainties, of wide diversification and factor tilt using low-cost, efficient vehicles and the risk/reward spectrum between all-fixed-income and all-equity portfolios. Rather, this booklet provides a way of navigating a global investment landscape that grows ever more linked by the month, and a way of thinking about diversification.

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    It offers guidance for those who want to make smart investments - even if they've never owned stocks before. This updated edition includes new concepts, improved chart graphics and new research tools. Key issues include: making money reading the daily financial pages; picking the best industry groups in the market; reading charts to improve stock selection and timing; reducing losses and mistakes; and turning a profit from reading and analyzing the news.

    Over the years sports debates have become muddled by many myths that do not match the numbers generated by those playing the games. In The Wages of Wins, the authors use layman's language and easy to follow examples based on their own academic research to debunk many of the most commonly held beliefs about sports.In this updated version of their book, these authors explain why Allen Iverson leaving Philadelphia made the 76ers a better team, why the Yankees find it so hard to repeat their success from the late 1990s, and why even great quarterbacks like Brett Favre are consistently inconsistent. The book names names, and makes it abundantly clear that much of the decision making of coaches and general managers does not hold up to an analysis of the numbers. Whether you are a fantasy league fanatic or a casual weekend fan, much of what you believe about sports will change after reading this book.

    But this book will help you to do something that humans have only recently understood how to do: to count to regions that no animal has ever reached. By the end of this book you'll be able to count to infinity... and beyond. On our way to infinity we'll discover how the ancient Babylonians used their bodies to count to 60 (which gave us 60 minutes in the hour), how the number zero was only discovered in the 7th century by Indian mathematicians contemplating the void, why in China going into the red meant your numbers had gone negative and why numbers might be our best language for communicating with alien life.But for millennia, contemplating infinity has sent even the greatest minds into a spin. Then at the end of the nineteenth century mathematicians discovered a way to think about infinity that revealed that it is a number that we can count. Not only that. They found that there are an infinite number of infinities, some bigger than others. Just using the finite neurons in your brain and the finite pages in this book, you'll have your mind blown discovering the secret of how to count to infinity.Do something amazing and learn a new skill thanks to the Little Ways to Live a Big Life books!

    Dozens of examples in innumeracy show us how it affects not only personal economics and travel plans, but explains mis-chosen mates, inappropriate drug-testing, and the allure of pseudo-science.