As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    His Incompleteness Theorem turned not only mathematics but also the whole world of science and philosophy on its head. Equally legendary were Gö's eccentricities, his close friendship with Albert Einstein, and his paranoid fear of germs that eventually led to his death from self-starvation. Now, in the first popular biography of this strange and brilliant thinker, John Casti and Werner DePauli bring the legend to life. After describing his childhood in the Moravian capital of Brno, the authors trace the arc of Gö's remarkable career, from the famed Vienna Circle, where philosophers and scientists debated notions of truth, to the Institute for Advanced Study in Princeton, New Jersey, where he lived and worked until his death in 1978. In the process, they shed light on Gö's contributions to mathematics, philosophy, computer science, artificial intelligence -- even cosmology -- in an entertaining and accessible way.

    The study of knots has led to important applications in DNA research and the synthesis of new molecules, and has had a significant impact on statistical mechanics and quantum field theory. Colin Adams’s The Knot Book is the first book to make cutting-edge research in knot theory accessible to a non-specialist audience. Starting with the simplest knots, Adams guides readers through increasingly more intricate twists and turns of knot theory, exploring problems and theorems mathematicians can now solve, as well as those that remain open. He also explores how knot theory is providing important insights in biology, chemistry, physics, and other fields. The new paperback edition has been updated to include the latest research results, and includes hundreds of illustrations of knots, as well as worked examples, exercises and problems. With a simple piece of string, an elementary mathematical background, and The Knot Book, anyone can start learning about some of the most advanced ideas in contemporary mathematics.

    Here, from author Jay Williams, is the moving story of the man behind the Renaissance myth.

    Written shortly before his death in 1940, How to Trade Stocks offered traders their first account of that famously tight-lipped operator's trading system. Written in Livermore's inimitable, no-nonsense style, it interweaves fascinating autobiographical and historical details with step-by-step guidance on: Reading market and stock behaviors Analyzing leading sectors Market timing Money management Emotional control In this new edition of that classic, trader and top Livermore expert Richard Smitten sheds new light on Jesse Livermore's philosophy and methods. Drawing on Livermore's private papers and interviews with his family, Smitten provides priceless insights into the Livermore trading formula, along with tips on how to combine it with contemporary charting techniques. Also included is the Livermore Market Key, the first and still one of the most accurate methods of tracking and recording market patterns Jesse Livermore is a stock market legend who made and lost four stock market fortunes in 40 years. Livermore's revolutionary timing techniques, money management systems, and high-momentum approach to trading are as valid today as they were three-quarters of a century ago. Richard Smitten teaches the “Jesse Livermore Trading System" and is developing "Trade Like Jesse Livermore" software. His other books include How to Trade Like Jesse Livermore and a number of novels About The Author: Jesse Livermore is a stock market legend who made and lost four stock market fortunes in 40 years. Livermore's revolutionary timing techniques, money management systems, and high-momentum approach to trading are as valid today as they were three-quarters of a century ago. Richard Smitten teaches the “Jesse Livermore Trading System" and is developing "Trade Like Jesse Livermore" software. His other books include How to Trade Li

    Zen and the Art of Poker is the first book to apply Zen theories to America's most popular card game, presenting tips that readers can use to enhance their game. Among the more than one hundred rules that comprise this book, readers will learn to: * Make peace with folding* Use inaction as a weapon* Make patience a central pillar of their strategy* Pick their times of confrontationUsing a concise and spare style, in the tradition of Zen practices and rituals, Zen and the Art of Poker traces a parallel track connecting the two disciplines by giving comments and inspirational examples from the ancient Zen masters to the poker masters of today.

    But for those of us who left math behind in high school, the numbers and figures hurled at us as we go about our days can sometimes leave us scratching our heads and feeling as if we’re fumbling through a mathematical minefield. In this eye-opening and extraordinarily accessible book, mathemati­cian Kit Yates illuminates hidden principles that can help us understand and navigate the chaotic and often opaque surfaces of our world. In The Math of Life and Death, Yates takes us on a fascinating tour of everyday situations and grand-scale applications of mathematical concepts, including exponential growth and decay, optimization, statistics and probability, and number systems. Along the way he reveals the mathematical undersides of controversies over DNA testing, medical screening results, and historical events such as the Chernobyl disaster and the Amanda Knox trial. Readers will finish this book with an enlightened perspective on the news, the law, medicine, and history, and will be better equipped to make personal decisions and solve problems with math in mind, whether it’s choosing the shortest checkout line at the grocery store or halting the spread of a deadly disease.

    Each chapter of The ETF Book offers concise coverage of various issues and is filled with in-depth insights on different types of ETFs as well as practical advice on how to select and manage them.

    joyfully shows you how to make nature's numbers dance."--Bill Nye (the science guy)The Magic of Math is the math book you wish you had in school. Using a delightful assortment of examples-from ice-cream scoops and poker hands to measuring mountains and making magic squares-this book revels in key mathematical fields including arithmetic, algebra, geometry, and calculus, plus Fibonacci numbers, infinity, and, of course, mathematical magic tricks. Known throughout the world as the "mathemagician," Arthur Benjamin mixes mathematics and magic to make the subject fun, attractive, and easy to understand for math fan and math-phobic alike."A positively joyful exploration of mathematics."-Publishers Weekly, starred review"Each [trick] is more dazzling than the last."-Physics World

    Jain uncovers the key elements of Buffett's approach that every investor should be aware of.With Buffett Beyond Value, you'll learn that, contrary to popular belief, Warren Buffett is not a pure value investor, but a unique thinker who combines the principles of both value and growth investing strategies. You'll also discover why understanding CEOs is more important than studying financial metrics; and why you need an appropriate psychological temperament to be a successful investor.Reveals Buffett's multifaceted investment principles Discusses how Buffett thinks differently from others about portfolio diversification, market efficiency, and corporate governance Highlights how you can build a diverse and profitable investment portfolio With this book as your guide, you'll learn how to successfully invest like Warren Buffett.

    His instructions were simple. There was only one rule. They could only invest in their ten best ideas to make money.It seemed like a foolproof plan to make a lot of money. What could possibly go wrong? These were some of the greatest minds at work in the markets today - from top European hedge fund managers to Wall Street legends.But most of the investors' great ideas actually lost money. Shockingly, a toss of a coin would have been a better method of choosing whether or not to invest in a stock.Nevertheless, despite being wrong most of the time, many of these investors still ended up making a lot of money.How could they be wrong most of the time and still be profitable? The answer lay in their hidden habits of execution, which until now have only been guessed at from the outside world.This book lays bare those secret habits for the first time, explaining them with real-life data, case studies and stories taken from Freeman-Shor's unique position of managing these investors on a day-to-day basis.A riveting read for investors of every level, this book shows you exactly what to do and what not to do when your big idea is losing or winning - and demonstrates conclusively why the most important thing about investing is always the art of execution.

    If it takes a book to get it across, I hope this book will do it. It ought to.”—Thomas Schelling, Distinguished University Professor, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland, and 2005 Nobel Prize Laureate in Economics “With humor, insight, piercing logic and a nod to history, Ziliak and McCloskey show how economists—and other scientists—suffer from a mass delusion about statistical analysis. The quest for statistical significance that pervades science today is a deeply flawed substitute for thoughtful analysis. . . . Yet few participants in the scientific bureaucracy have been willing to admit what Ziliak and McCloskey make clear: the emperor has no clothes.”—Kenneth Rothman, Professor of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Health The Cult of Statistical Significance shows, field by field, how “statistical significance,” a technique that dominates many sciences, has been a huge mistake. The authors find that researchers in a broad spectrum of fields, from agronomy to zoology, employ “testing” that doesn’t test and “estimating” that doesn’t estimate. The facts will startle the outside reader: how could a group of brilliant scientists wander so far from scientific magnitudes? This study will encourage scientists who want to know how to get the statistical sciences back on track and fulfill their quantitative promise. The book shows for the first time how wide the disaster is, and how bad for science, and it traces the problem to its historical, sociological, and philosophical roots. Stephen T. Ziliak is the author or editor of many articles and two books. He currently lives in Chicago, where he is Professor of Economics at Roosevelt University. Deirdre N. McCloskey, Distinguished Professor of Economics, History, English, and Communication at the University of Illinois at Chicago, is the author of twenty books and three hundred scholarly articles. She has held Guggenheim and National Humanities Fellowships. She is best known for How to Be Human* Though an Economist (University of Michigan Press, 2000) and her most recent book, The Bourgeois Virtues: Ethics for an Age of Commerce (2006).

    The framework of probabilistic graphical models, presented in this book, provides a general approach for this task. The approach is model-based, allowing interpretable models to be constructed and then manipulated by reasoning algorithms. These models can also be learned automatically from data, allowing the approach to be used in cases where manually constructing a model is difficult or even impossible. Because uncertainty is an inescapable aspect of most real-world applications, the book focuses on probabilistic models, which make the uncertainty explicit and provide models that are more faithful to reality.Probabilistic Graphical Models discusses a variety of models, spanning Bayesian networks, undirected Markov networks, discrete and continuous models, and extensions to deal with dynamical systems and relational data. For each class of models, the text describes the three fundamental cornerstones: representation, inference, and learning, presenting both basic concepts and advanced techniques. Finally, the book considers the use of the proposed framework for causal reasoning and decision making under uncertainty. The main text in each chapter provides the detailed technical development of the key ideas. Most chapters also include boxes with additional material: skill boxes, which describe techniques; case study boxes, which discuss empirical cases related to the approach described in the text, including applications in computer vision, robotics, natural language understanding, and computational biology; and concept boxes, which present significant concepts drawn from the material in the chapter. Instructors (and readers) can group chapters in various combinations, from core topics to more technically advanced material, to suit their particular needs.

    Lots of NFL data.

    Detailing the technical indicators and money management strategies that have worked best for him, T. Livingston breaks down what every savvy trader needs to profit in today’s stock market. Topics discussed include how to analyze the general market, which stocks to trade, when to buy, position sizing, profit targets, and selling rules. Swing Into It provides a variety of different examples so that the reader will be prepared for various market scenarios. Detailed sample trades are included so that the reader can see how Livingston thinks throughout each phase of his trades. If you’re looking to get started in swing trading or seeking to refine your trading system, Swing Into It belongs in your library.