Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    A cold-eyed killer who drank nothing stronger than weak tea, he fought with his bare hands, a sharpened shovel and piano wire. He was a larrikin who went by the book, unless the book was wrong. He set his own bar high and expected others to do the same.Stone Cold is the extraordinary story of one of Australia's most fearless fighters. It takes us into the jungles of New Guinea and Borneo and some of the fiercest battles of World War II. It goes to the cold heart of Korea, where Len emerged from the ranks to excel in the epic Battle of Kapyong and play a key role at the Battle of Maryang San. And it drops us into the centre of the American counterinsurgency war in Vietnam with Len's involvement in the CIA's shadowy black ops program, Phoenix.Action-packed and surprising, Stone Cold gives rich life to a warrior soldier and one of Australia's greatest diggers.

    He did not crave my company, cling to and cuddle me endlessly. He showed no need to bond with me, his father, and we did not. He exhausted me, he frustrated me and he scared me. I came to dread coming home from work sometimes, or those moments when it was my turn to wrestle him into bed and begin the long struggle to settle him. I said things that will forever haunt me, like “What is wrong with that child?” and “Is he always going to be this annoying?” What I didn't know then was that he was autistic.When that realisation came, so did the beginning of my mission to understand my son, and to understand autism. This book chronicles that search for understanding and answers. It documents one parent’s attempts to come to terms with, and accept, his child. It is raw and real, sometimes confused and frightened but also, I’d like to think, written with warmth and love and an ability to smile through difficult times.This book is for anyone starting out on a pathway with their child that they did not expect. It’s also for people who, like me, are a little further down that road but still learning, still asking questions and still getting it wrong sometimes. You are not alone.

    Remember! is an autobiography which recounts Marcel Scharfstein's life experience in the Warsaw Ghetto and in Nazi concentration camps of Poland and Germany during World War II.

    Though competing against one another for the flying assignments of their dreams, like the fearsome F-15 and F-16 fighters, a good mission sometimes takes a backseat to a good party or punch line in this classroom of cut-ups. The high stakes, however, loom over Lt. Wright. In a program where one out of three students fails, not everybody who starts UPT will finish it. And not everybody who does finish will get a desirable flying assignment. Some won’t even escape the Columbus Air Force Base. Will Lt. Wright get his dream assignment flying a C-141 cargo plane based out of beachside Charleston, South Carolina? Or be forced to perpetuate the If you ain’t a pilot… system as the dreaded FAIP (First Assignment Instructor Pilot) in Columbus, Mississippi? Though a military memoir, IF YOU AIN’T A PILOT… is a story of youthful innocence, a happy tale of the best of friends. Beneath the story’s surface layer of how an Air Force officer’s aeronautical rating determines his worth, similar thematic layers unfold around gender, race, and other ways people define each other. At its core, this story is about people, our relationships, and how we choose to treat each other. While 30 years have passed since the memoir’s events—and our aircraft, our enemy, and our pop-culture ties have changed—we still struggle with our differences. IF YOU AIN’T A PILOT taps into the mystic of Top Gun, the satirical wryness of Candide and Catch-22, and the allure of the air-travel genre captured by Mark Vanhoenacker’s recent Skyfaring: A Journey with a Pilot (2015), Tom Wolfe’s The Right Stuff, and James Salter’s The Hunters. Set at the end of the Cold War in the heart of Dixie, IF YOU AIN’T A PILOT…crosses Top Gun adrenaline with Pee-Wee’s Playhouse antics at a flight training base where Air Force idealism collides with Deep South heritage. Complete at 142,000 words, this comedic memoir written for a general audience charts the year when a newly commissioned officer is challenged not only by flight school but also by the Air Force dictum If you ain’t a pilot, you ain’t $#!+. That said, the primary mission for IF YOU AIN’T A PILOT...is to make readers laugh. While the story is written for a non-military audience, military pilots, civilian pilots, and any person who ever dreamed about flying as a kid will love IF YOU AIN’T A PILOT….

    Donovan Gray answers that question in Dude, Where's My Stethoscope? - a laugh-out-loud funny, heartbreaking and sometimes poignant collection of true-life medical short stories. We follow Dr. Gray through medical school and two decades of unforgettable ER and family practice. Humorously written in an engaging mash-up of formal prose and informal medical slang with a nod to pop culture and ancient mythology, Dude is a powerful book that captures the essence of what it is to be an emergency room doctor.

    As the voyage steams (sweats, rather) eastward from Seattle to New York, he meets a diverse, humorous, and motley bunch of individuals in full support of his spirit of adventure, evidence that one's wildest dreams are in fact worth pursuing. The story is a testament to the power of welcoming the stranger and the good that resides in us all. Read it to laugh, read it to learn, or read it simply to remember that you are human.They say once you start pedaling you can't stop. So buckle your helmet, don spandex if you dare, and get ready for the ride of a lifetime.

    This book is a must-read for anyone who wants to shed off some extra weight without counting calories. Click buy now with 1-click to own your copy today!

    But what is that energy-giving, life-breathing force that inspires and empowers us? How do we put the wind in our sails again, so we can get unstuck, reset our compass, and redirect our course? In "Fresh Air," "New York Times" bestselling author Chris Hodges reveals how breath--the breath of God--is the essence of life as it's meant to be. Fueled by the breath of God, we are not only refreshed in spirit ourselves; we have the power to create a life-giving environment of freedom and joyful purpose around us. Bold and encouraging, "Fresh Air" offers "breathing lessons" for those who long for a cool breeze to resuscitate their spirit, bring them closer to God, and make them enthusiastic, contagious life-breathers to those around them.

    With this book you will learn how to tap into every Kindle Fire feature, including many of the hidden ones not discussed in other books. From setting up your Kindle Page, managing your music, watching movies, and downloading content - this book covers everything. The task based full-color format allows you to quickly and easily find the exact task you want to accomplish and walks you through it in a delightfully concise and visual manner. My Kindle Fire makes it easy for you to:• Master all the basics, fast: reading, playing, watching, browsing, and more• Tweak your Kindle Fire for quicker access and longer battery life• Sample best-seller book chapters for free• Mark up any eBook with highlights, notes, and bookmarks• Convert your personal documents for use on Kindle Fire• Discover Calibre, a powerful eBook management tool• Control even the largest music libraries• Get instant answers from Wikipedia, and from Kindle Fire’s built-in dictionary• Listen to personalized Internet radio stations created just for you• Use your Kindle Fire as a digital photo frame• Prevent unwanted subscription charges• Set up any email account to work on your Kindle Fire• Explore any web content with Amazon’s innovative Silk browser• Use Amazon Cloud to get your stuff anywhere—even if you left your Kindle at home• And much much more…Unlike many other guides which might only briefly mention or skip over some very import Kindle Fire features My Kindle Fire covers everything. Here are just a few of the things you'll find in My Kindle Fire that aren't covered in other guides: • Full coverage of Calibre, a free application for Mac or PC that helps manage your eBook library• A large number of walkthroughs for managing music playlists, including how to use cloud playlists. • How to reinstall multiple apps at once in case you reset your Kindle Fire. • Step-by-step walkthroughs on configuring all types of email accounts. • Coverage on handling attachments in your email application. • Importing contacts from your existing email application or cloud service and how you can export your contacts in order to back them up. • How to use Copy and Paste on the Kindle Fire. • How to use social networking integration with Facebook and others. • Walkthroughs on using the Gallery app, Pandora, Audible, and other popular apps. • Shows you how to access files on other computers in your house right from your Kindle Fire.

    Afterward, the doctor comes out with the results."I'm afraid I have some very bad news," the doctor says. "You're dying, and you don't have much time left.""Oh, that's terrible!" says the man. "Give it to me straight, Doc. How long have I got?""Ten," the doctor says sadly."Ten?" the man asks. "Ten what? Months? Weeks? What?!""Nine..."

    You simply move more deeply into them. For anyone - the kettlebell novice to the 15-year veteran - this short (read: just 30 page) ebook provides the perfect foundation or refresher of the fundamental kettlebell techniques, including the kettlebell swing, goblet squat, snatch, Turkish get up, clean, and military press. Each movement has detailed instructions plus step-by-step photos to help the reader understand the movements as well as safely and effectively execute them. After we discuss the hows of each of the basic movements, we move into applying what we've learned with a simple, straightforward kettlebell program for strength, muscle, mobility, conditioning, and (for those who want it) weight loss. This 7-day program can be run through just once as a refresher or for up to six weeks as a standalone program. This book includes: *The following kettlebell exercises: Kettlebell swing, goblet squat, snatch, Turkish get up, clean, and military press. *Each kettlebell exercise features a detailed description of the movement, step-by-step photos and key points. *A straightforward and simple 7-day program (repeatable for up to 6 weeks) to help the novice acclimate to kettlebell training or for the kettlebell veteran hone their technique and skills.

    For example, I was once pinned down by a young lad who repeatedly asked me why I was hitting myself, when he knew full well that I had temporarily ceded hegemony over my hands and forearms. I tried to explain it to him, but he didn’t seem to comprehend. In retrospect, I can only conclude that my explanation was not articulate enough.To that end, I and Phil Plait have teamed up to create precisely 128 insults designed to weaken the resolve of aggressors, while educating them in their primary field of interest. Whether the person pummeling you is a student of mathematics or belles-lettres, we have the right words for the occasion.Zach WeinersmithPS: In the highly likely situation that the person pummeling you refuses to cease his aggression until he understands the meaning of the insult, we have also provided an appendix in which the insults are explained.

     This book is perfect for history lovers. Author James Weber did the research and compiled this huge list of events that changed the course of history forever. Some of them include: - The first civilization in Mesopotamia in 3,000 B.C. - The Norman Invasion of England in 1066 - The invention of the printing press by Johannes Guttenberg around 1450 - The French Revolution in 1789 - The first motorized airplane flight in 1903 - The Moonlanding in 1969 and many many more The book includes pictures and explanations to every event, making this the perfect resource for students and anyone wanting to broaden their knowledge in histoy. Download your copy now! Tags: history, world history, history books, history of the world, human history, world history textbook, history books for kids, earth history, geographic history, earth history kindle, human history, history books for kids age 9 12, history of the world part 1, a little history of the world, history books for kids age 7-9, history books for young readers, history books for children, history books for kindle,

    She is the girl with the blue tattoo.The story behind the distinctive tattoo is the stuff of legends. Some believed it was placed on her face during her captivity, following the brutal murders of her family members and the kidnapping of her and her sister. Others believe it was placed on her after her return.Rumors swelled. Her tattoo became a symbol of Native barbarianism and the triumph of American goodness, but like many stories of that era, the truth is far more complicated.This short book details the murders, her captivity, the aftermath, and her baffling return to her captors. Unravel the mystery of the woman who would become famous for all the wrong reasons and discover what her life story says about cultural identity, the power of resiliency, and what happens when fact and fiction bend and twist to muddy the waters.Read on to find out the truth!