Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    What made ancient India the Golden Bird in the first place? What did China, the Land of the Dragon, have in common with India, and when did these two ancient civilizations diverge on their paths to global success? Raina Singhwi Jain discusses the immediate need and measures for a quantum jump in our attitude towards development. While conventional wisdom suggests improvements in manufacturing, the ease of doing business and digital technology, Jain goes a step further, drawing surprising parallels between other areas that beg our attention—process engineering, communication design, journalism, and education. This is a work of reflection and a call to action, urging Indian denizens to act now for a revival of the genius that lies dormant within each one of us.

    But what is a “good” shot? Are all good shots created equally? And how might one identify players who are more or less likely to make and prevent those shots in the first place? The concept of basketball “analytics,” for lack of a better term, has been lauded, derided, and misunderstood. The incorporation of more data into NBA decision-making has been credited—or blamed—for everything from the death of the traditional center to the proliferation of three-point shooting to the alleged abandonment of the area of the court known as the midrange. What is beyond doubt is that understanding its methods has never been more important to watching and appreciating the NBA. In The Midrange Theory, Seth Partnow, NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, explains how numbers have affected the modern NBA game, and how those numbers seek not to “solve” the game of basketball but instead urge us toward thinking about it in new ways.The relative value of Russell Westbrook’s triple-doublesWhy some players succeed in the playoffs while others don’tHow NBA teams think about constructing their rosters through the draft and free agencyThe difficulty in measuring defensive achievementThe fallacy of the “quick two”From shot selection to evaluating prospects to considering aesthetics and ethics while analyzing the box scores, Partnow deftly explores where the NBA is now, how it got here, and where it might be going next.

    

    There is a lot of misinformation, speculation, and assumption going around, as well as a lot of bad advice given by people who never did their research. This book comes at it from a neutral perspective, without all the hype, in hopes to dispel some of the myths and rumors about essential oils. The Essential Oil Truth will help you gain a greater understanding of the true nature and beauty of essential oils and their proper use for your everyday life.

    This unique budgetary survival guide will enhance your instructional, technical, and managerial skills not only as the school′s leader but also as the school′s visionary, planning coordinator, and budgeting manager.

    Rather than provide answers, leaders ask questions to draw out what God has already put into others. ICF Professional Certified Coach and speaker Keith Webb teaches Christian leaders how to create powerful conversations to assist others to solve their own problems, reach goals, and develop their own leadership skills in the process. Whether leaders are working with employees, teenagers, or a colleague living in another city, they’ll find powerful tools and techniques to increase leadership effectiveness. Based on first-hand experience and taught around the world, The COACH Model for Christian Leaders is packed with stories and illustrations that bring the principles and practice to life and transform leaders’ conversations into powerful results.

    For over a decade,the authors have studied the world’s successful traders. Based on their learnings, they started practicing it and are now part of the 5%. Trade and Grow Rich teaches not just concepts but also methods with the help of anecdotes. This book has to be read one chapter at a time, rather than just being a one-time read. If you want to enjoy an adventurous journey to become a successful trader, then this is the book you are looking for!

    Cases, datasets, and examples allow for a more real-world perspective and explore relevant uses of regression techniques in business today.

    It provides comprehensive coverage of the subject from basic principles to state-of-art concepts and applications. The objective is to give the reader a sound understanding of the principles and the basis for applying them in a variety of both product and nonproduct situations. While statistical techniques are emphasized throughout, the book has a strong engineering and management orientation. Guidelines are given throughout the book for selecting the proper type of statistical technique to use in a wide variety of product and nonproduct situations. By presenting theory, and supporting the theory with clear and relevant examples, Montgomery helps the reader to understand the big picture of important concepts. Updated to reflect contemporary practice and provide more information on management aspects of quality improvement.

    The absence of a book, explaining the techniques in a simple language, has been felt acutely for a long time. This book has been written using a step-by-step approach, and attempts to fill the existing void. It includes several solved problems in addition to 1000 practice problems with answers. It also includes a special chapter which shows the application of the techniques to problems set in competitive exams like CAT, CET etc.People from all walks of life including school and college students, teachers, parents and also those from non-mathematical areas of study will discover the joys of solving mathematical problems using the wonderful set of techniques called Vedic Maths.

    Minimalist Budget will help you to turn your bloated expenses into a well-toned budget, spending on exactly what you need and nothing else. This book presents solutions for two major problems in our consumer society: (1) how to downsize your cravings without having to sacrifice the fun stuff, and (2) how to whip your finances into shape and follow a personalized budget. This is not a get rich quick book. But I can promise day-by-day, month-by-month, you’ll budget better and become richer as a consequence. Regardless of how much your income is we’ll find a way to budget, save, and increase your net worth. Since my youth, I’ve had to live on a budget that ranged from $100 to $200 a month if I was lucky. Even though I never knew how much I would have the next month, I was always able to have enough for my essential expenses, personal pleasures, and savings. If you’re tired of the false and impossible-to-follow promises of “finance gurus,” try out my simple, straightforward, easy-to-stick-to methods. Improve your spending habits: • Incorporate minimalism into your finances • How to avoid becoming a minimalist consumerist • Learn the psychological traps that make you overspend • Control your compulsive spending habits Feel financially secure every day: • Learn about two A-Z budgeting methods and how to make them work for you • Learn ratio-based budgeting and fixed-amount budgeting • Discover the best budgeting software programs • Design a bulletproof savings strategy to get out of debt, be prepared for emergencies, and set yourself up for retirement Stop hating your financial life: • Learn how to set SMART financial goals • Increase your self-confidence with budgeting • 50 small budgeting tips Financial education is not part of our educational system. It is normal that we don’t know how to budget when we step into the craziness we call adulthood. But it is not normal to stay ignorant about a field of life that (like it or not) guarantees our material survival. Money management is an essential skill for everybody who earns, shops or consumes. If you follow the budgeting tips in this book, you’ll be able to keep track of your finances. You’ll clearly know where your money goes, where it comes from and where can you save. You won’t feel stressed of running out of money unexpectedly, you’ll clear yourself out of debts and have savings for bigger expenses like a vacation, new car or unexpected events. Leave money struggles for yesterday. Grab a copy of Minimalist Budget by hitting buy now in the top right corner of this page.

    Over the years sports debates have become muddled by many myths that do not match the numbers generated by those playing the games. In The Wages of Wins, the authors use layman's language and easy to follow examples based on their own academic research to debunk many of the most commonly held beliefs about sports.In this updated version of their book, these authors explain why Allen Iverson leaving Philadelphia made the 76ers a better team, why the Yankees find it so hard to repeat their success from the late 1990s, and why even great quarterbacks like Brett Favre are consistently inconsistent. The book names names, and makes it abundantly clear that much of the decision making of coaches and general managers does not hold up to an analysis of the numbers. Whether you are a fantasy league fanatic or a casual weekend fan, much of what you believe about sports will change after reading this book.

    Siracusa's overview, wrap-up, and critique of everything new in OS X 10.10 Yosemite.

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.