Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    In this fun and informative guide, her first for puppies, she teaches you how to navigate each stage of a puppy's growth, from the first weeks through adolescence. You'll learn:- puppy-proofing your home- toilet training- building leash-walking and play skills- preventing nipping and excessive barking- caring for your puppy's health- and more!

    Based on the work of W. Edwards Deming and on Dr. Glasser's own choice theory, it is written for teachers who are trying to abandon the old system of boss-managing, which is effective for less than half of all students. William Glasser, M.D., explains that only through lead-management can teachers create classrooms in which all students not only do competent work but begin to do quality work. These classrooms are the core of a quality school. The book begins by explaining that to persuade students to do quality schoolwork, teachers must first establish warm, totally noncoercive relationships with their students; teach only useful material, which means stressing skills rather than asking students to memorize information; and move from teacher evaluation to student self-evaluation. There are no generalities in this book: It provides the specifics that classroom teachers seek as they begin the move to quality schools.

    Essentially, this is a book about you. It points to and from the source of your true identity. The clear seeing that it refers to is neither complex nor simple. It is not something exclusive for intellectual or spiritual elite, nor is it remote or hiding in the future. It is all inclusive, pure presence, closer than your breath. It is the heart of hearts, your birthright and innermost self. This is your invitation to remember what was never really forgotten.

    Beginning with the birth of dream research in the 1950s, award-winning science reporter Andrea Rock traces the brief but fascinating history of this emerging scientific field. She then takes us into modern sleep labs across the country, bringing the scientists to life as she interprets their intellectual breakthroughs and asks the questions that intrigue us all: Why do we remember only a fraction of our dreams? Why are dreams usually accompanied by intense emotion, such as fear or anxiety? Can we really control our dreams without waking up? Are universal dream interpretations valid? Is dreaming our way of consolidating long-term memories and filtering the day's mental detritus? Can dreams truly spark creative thought or help solve problems? Accessible and engaging, The Mind at Night shines a bright light on our nocturnal journeys, while revealing the crucial role dreams could play in penetrating the mystery of consciousness.

    10,000 Americans turn 65 each day, and their average life expectancy is another 20 years--and many will live longer. But will they just live or have a meaningful life? The truth is that many--if not most--people approaching the latter years do not have a plan, much less a strategy to thrive instead of just survive. Packed with information based on research as well as common-sense wisdom, here are some examples of what readers will discover: - How retiring at the wrong time increases the likelihood of dying 89%. - What can delay Alzheimer's onset an average of 9 years. - How everything that makes you happy comes in just 3 forms. - Which partner is most likely to initiate divorce after decades of marriage and why.

    Their accomplishments are unparalleled, with countless World Series of Poker and World Poker Tour championships to their names and well in excess of $100 million in winnings in private games. Now, this group of poker legends has banded together to create The Full Tilt Poker Strategy Guide, which will stand as an instant classic of the genre and is sure to become the industry standard.

    Dandruff. Split Ends. When your hair reaches rock bottom it's time for a little rehab. While we can't permanently undo the damage of the past, Hair Care Rehab: The Ultimate Hair Repair and Reconditioning Manual will give you the blueprint and tools you need to salvage and work with your stressed out hair. Who is this book for? Everyone! Brunette, blonde, straight, wavy, curly, thick, fine-- no matter your hair situation, rehab has you covered! This book takes readers through three phases of rehab: The Intervention: Discusses hair structure, type and form. Also defines hair damage, and teaches you how to work with overworked hair! The Detox: Presents a 5-Step strategy for hair repair that WORKS! Hair Therapy: Offers tips and solutions for 30+ common scalp and hair care issues. If your relationship with your hair is on the rocks, get the rehab you need today with Hair Care Rehab. Contents: Unit I: The Intervention Chapter 1: Let's Start Off With What Is Not True Chapter 2: Hair & Scalp: Just the Basics Chapter 3: Damage Defined Chapter 4: What s Your Drug of Choice? Unit II: The Detox Chapter 5: Getting Damage under Control Unit III: Hair Therapy & Treatment Chapter 6: The Hair Repair Manual Special Topics Alopecia (Hair Loss) Basic Hair Breakage Burns (Appliances) Chemical Burns Chlorine & Pool Water Damage Color Fading Contact Dermatitis Cradle Cap Crown-Area Hair Breakage Damaged, Highly Porous Hair Dandruff & Dry Scalp Dry, Brittle Hair Eczema Red, Itchy Scalp Fine, Limp Hair Frizzy Hair Graying Hair Green Hair Hair Loss & Thinning Head Lice Heat Damage Oily Hair Psoriasis Ringworm Seborrheic Dermatitis Shedding Single-Strand Knots Sluggish Hair Growth Split Ends Sun & Surf Damage Tangly Hair Thinning Hair Edges Thin Ends Unit IV: Outpatient Therapy Chapter 7: Special Hair Conditioning & Restoration Treatments Chapter 8: On the Shelf!

    Yet you'd have to fly every day for the next 26,000 years to assure yourself of dying in a crash. A leisurely canoe ride is more than 100 times deadlier. Think city streets are unsafe? You're more likely to come to harm in your own home, where every year you stand a 1 in 650 chance of being injured by your bed, mattress, or pillows—and each year 800 Americans die in accidents involving soft furnishings.We live in a world governed by fear, where packets of peanuts "may contain nuts" and children must be ever on the alert to "stranger danger." And yet, life expectancy has never been higher. Crime rates have plunged. Even unintentional injuries are down. So if we're so safe, why are we so afraid?How to Live Dangerously is a hilarious, straight-talking look at the things that terrify us. It considers life's real risks, not to mention the often ridiculous methods we've contrived to keep ourselves "safe." It encourages you to ignore fearmongers and embrace a new kind of freedom, in which we all worry a little less—and live a whole lot more.

    

    All test questions are answered and explained. It also provides extensive subject review covering all test topics. Topics reviewed include research methods, the biological basis of behavior, sensation and perception, states of consciousness, learning, cognition, personality, abnormal psychology, and treatment of disorders. This manual also presents an overview of the test, extra multiple-choice practice questions, test-taking tips, and an analysis of the test’s essay question with a sample essay.

    Schwartz, Ph.D., there is compelling scientific evidence that we no longer have to accept God on faith alone. Through a multidisciplinary approach, Harvard University-educated Dr. Schwartz blends psychology, quantum physics, and mathematics to examine the science of spirit. Faith and science are not mutually exclusive, and a better understanding of their relationship can lead us to recognize how God operates in everything.Trained in the scientific method as an "open-minded skeptic," Dr. Schwartz was taught how to raise questions, turn them into hypotheses, and design experiments to test them. He was not trained to consider the nature of God. And yet, his scientific research led him directly to the discovery of God's existence in intelligent evolution and everyday life.Scientifically rigorous and spiritually reassuring, this eye-opening book is a wake-up call for anyone who wonders about life's true meaning and who longs to believe in the existence of a universal intelligence.

    Will take 25-35 days

    Abhay Bang who suffered from Heart disease at the age of 44. You might wonder, how a doctor who never had addiction of cigarette & alcohol throughout his life suffered from heart attack?

    Incorporating everything that's new in pregnancy, childbirth, and the lifestyles of parents-to-be, complete with a preconception plan, information on choosing a practitioner, birthing alternatives, second pregnancies, twins, making love while pregnant, and coping with common and not so common pregnancy symptoms.