Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    Thorp invented card counting, proving the seemingly impossible: that you could beat the dealer at the blackjack table. As a result he launched a gambling renaissance. His remarkable success--and mathematically unassailable method--caused such an uproar that casinos altered the rules of the game to thwart him and the legions he inspired. They barred him from their premises, even put his life in jeopardy. Nonetheless, gambling was forever changed.Thereafter, Thorp shifted his sights to "the biggest casino in the world" Wall Street. Devising and then deploying mathematical formulas to beat the market, Thorp ushered in the era of quantitative finance we live in today. Along the way, the so-called godfather of the quants played bridge with Warren Buffett, crossed swords with a young Rudy Giuliani, detected the Bernie Madoff scheme, and, to beat the game of roulette, invented, with Claude Shannon, the world's first wearable computer.Here, for the first time, Thorp tells the story of what he did, how he did it, his passions and motivations, and the curiosity that has always driven him to disregard conventional wisdom and devise game-changing solutions to seemingly insoluble problems. An intellectual thrill ride, replete with practical wisdom that can guide us all in uncertain financial waters, A Man for All Markets is an instant classic--a book that challenges its readers to think logically about a seemingly irrational world.Praise for A Man for All Markets"In A Man for All Markets, [Thorp] delightfully recounts his progress (if that is the word) from college teacher to gambler to hedge-fund manager. Along the way we learn important lessons about the functioning of markets and the logic of investment."--The Wall Street Journal"[Thorp] gives a biological summation (think Richard Feynman's Surely You're Joking, Mr. Feynman!) of his quest to prove the aphorism 'the house always wins' is flawed. . . . Illuminating for the mathematically inclined, and cautionary for would-be gamblers and day traders"-- Library Journal

    Requiring essentially no background apart from mathematical maturity, the book can be used as a reference for self-study for anyone interested in complexity, including physicists, mathematicians, and other scientists, as well as a textbook for a variety of courses and seminars. More than 300 exercises are included with a selected hint set.

    This book explains the technical aspects of hacking, including stack based overflows, heap based overflows, string exploits, return-into-libc, shellcode, and cryptographic attacks on 802.11b.

    Designed for readers who don't need the academic formality, it's a fast and easy computer science guide. It teaches essential concepts for people who want to program computers effectively. First, it introduces discrete mathematics, then it exposes the most common algorithms and data structures. It also shows the principles that make computers and programming languages work.

    Through an exhaustive, evidence-based analysis of medical research, the study concludes that MS is a disease largely determined by lifestyle factors. Showing that people with MS who modify their diet, their exercise habits, and other aspects of their lifestyle can stabilize the illness and potentially recover, these recommendations will change the lives of thousands of people with MS and support their loved ones.

    Now that machine learning is thriving, even programmers who know close to nothing about this technology can use simple, efficient tools to implement programs capable of learning from data. This practical book shows you how.By using concrete examples, minimal theory, and two production-ready Python frameworks—Scikit-Learn and TensorFlow—author Aurélien Géron helps you gain an intuitive understanding of the concepts and tools for building intelligent systems. You’ll learn how to use a range of techniques, starting with simple Linear Regression and progressing to Deep Neural Networks. If you have some programming experience and you’re ready to code a machine learning project, this guide is for you.This hands-on book shows you how to use:Scikit-Learn, an accessible framework that implements many algorithms efficiently and serves as a great machine learning entry pointTensorFlow, a more complex library for distributed numerical computation, ideal for training and running very large neural networksPractical code examples that you can apply without learning excessive machine learning theory or algorithm details

    Everyone wants to build the next $100 million business and author Mark Roberge has actually done it using a unique methodology that he shares with his readers. As an MIT alum with an engineering background, Roberge challenged the conventional methods of scaling sales utilizing the metrics-driven, process-oriented lens through which he was trained to see the world. In this book, he reveals his formulas for success. Readers will learn how to apply data, technology, and inbound selling to every aspect of accelerating sales, including hiring, training, managing, and generating demand. As SVP of Worldwide Sales and Services for software company HubSpot, Mark led hundreds of his employees to the acquisition and retention of the company's first 10,000 customers across more than 60 countries. This book outlines his approach and provides an action plan for others to replicate his success, including the following key elements: Hire the same successful salesperson every time — The Sales Hiring Formula Train every salesperson in the same manner — The Sales Training Formula Hold salespeople accountable to the same sales process — The Sales Management Formula Provide salespeople with the same quality and quantity of leads every month — The Demand Generation Formula Leverage technology to enable better buying for customers and faster selling for salespeople Business owners, sales executives, and investors are all looking to turn their brilliant ideas into the next $100 million revenue business. Often, the biggest challenge they face is the task of scaling sales. They crave a blueprint for success, but fail to find it because sales has traditionally been referred to as an art form, rather than a science. You can't major in sales in college. Many people question whether sales can even be taught. Executives and entrepreneurs are often left feeling helpless and hopeless. The Sales Acceleration Formula completely alters this paradigm. In today's digital world, in which every action is logged and masses of data sit at our fingertips, building a sales team no longer needs to be an art form. There is a process. Sales can be predictable. A formula does exist.

    But developing these systems brings its own set of headaches. With lots of examples and practical advice, this book takes a holistic view of the topics that system architects and administrators must consider when building, managing, and evolving microservice architectures.Microservice technologies are moving quickly. Author Sam Newman provides you with a firm grounding in the concepts while diving into current solutions for modeling, integrating, testing, deploying, and monitoring your own autonomous services. You'll follow a fictional company throughout the book to learn how building a microservice architecture affects a single domain.Discover how microservices allow you to align your system design with your organization's goalsLearn options for integrating a service with the rest of your systemTake an incremental approach when splitting monolithic codebasesDeploy individual microservices through continuous integrationExamine the complexities of testing and monitoring distributed servicesManage security with user-to-service and service-to-service modelsUnderstand the challenges of scaling microservice architectures

    Book appears to have hardly been read and is in As new condition throughout.

    Written By Two Of Today'S Most Respected Computer Science Educators, Nell Dale And John Lewis, The Text Provides A Broad Overview Of The Many Aspects Of The Discipline From A Generic View Point. Separate Program Language Chapters Are Available As Bundle Items For Those Instructors Who Would Like To Explore A Particular Programming Language With Their Students. The Many Layers Of Computing Are Thoroughly Explained Beginning With The Information Layer, Working Through The Hardware, Programming, Operating Systems, Application, And Communication Layers, And Ending With A Discussion On The Limitations Of Computing. Perfect For Introductory Computing And Computer Science Courses, Computer Science Illuminated, Third Edition's Thorough Presentation Of Computing Systems Provides Computer Science Majors With A Solid Foundation For Further Study, And Offers Non-Majors A Comprehensive And Complete Introduction To Computing.

    The book will also be extremely useful for those preparing for other MBA entrance examinations like XAT, SNAP, CMAT, NMAT, etc. Quantitative Aptitude is quite challenging component of the CAT question paper and the other mentioned MBA entrance examinations. In his inimitable style, Arun Sharma, an acknowledged authority on the topic, provides a comprehensive package of theory and practice problems to enable aspirants to attempt questions with extra speed and confidence.

    Designed for two-semester, beginning graduate courses in Mathematical Statistics, and for senior undergraduate Mathematics, Statistics, and Actuarial Science majors, this text retains its ongoing features and continues to provide students with background material.

    AFFORDABLE.This book on investing in rental properties for beginners is the foundation of what I’ve built 47,000 person social media platform on – helping the average person get involved in rental properties on an average income, and building the cash flow of their dreams with 2-5 properties. That’s it.This will teach you (the ordinary investor) how to tailor your investment strategy to your pocketbooks (and no one else’s). You don’t need to ask your parents or friends for loans because the best approach to building a rental portfolio is by purchasing units in modest neighborhoods that offer really high rents (i.e. purchase a $44,000 rental that earns $1200 a month in rents).If being a real estate investor is your dream and being a landlord is not, this is the book for you! The author will personally take you through the steps she’s used on over 560 people to build their dream income and lifestyle.Here’s some of what you’ll discover in this book: Find what the best market/price for your investment portfolio should be for your budget; Learn how to invest out of state EASILY and EFFORTLESSLY to build your portfolio; How to find low cost properties and analyze them to make sure you are choosing the right property; How NOT to be swindled out of thousands by contractors; The Three KEY FACTORS that determine whether it’s a good deal or not; How vacancy rates is a MADE UP NUMBER and how to professionally analyze any rental market; The difference between a rental property owner versus landlord - and how that impacts your investment strategy; That there is such a thing as a profitable and compassionate real estate investor, and you can do your part to offer long term affordable housing and stop the middle class squeeze; If you’re ready to turn your dreams of being a real estate investor into a reality, then hit the BUY NOW button!

    The Productive Programmer offers critical timesaving and productivity tools that you can adopt right away, no matter what platform you use. Master developer Neal Ford not only offers advice on the mechanics of productivity-how to work smarter, spurn interruptions, get the most out your computer, and avoid repetition-he also details valuable practices that will help you elude common traps, improve your code, and become more valuable to your team. You'll learn to:Write the test before you write the codeManage the lifecycle of your objects fastidiously Build only what you need now, not what you might need later Apply ancient philosophies to software development Question authority, rather than blindly adhere to standardsMake hard things easier and impossible things possible through meta-programming Be sure all code within a method is at the same level of abstraction Pick the right editor and assemble the best tools for the job This isn't theory, but the fruits of Ford's real-world experience as an Application Architect at the global IT consultancy ThoughtWorks. Whether you're a beginner or a pro with years of experience, you'll improve your work and your career with the simple and straightforward principles in The Productive Programmer.