As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    In this revision, the author takes a structured approach to explaining how networks function.

    Mitchell covers the field of machine learning, the study of algorithms that allow computer programs to automatically improve through experience and that automatically infer general laws from specific data.

    The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. If machine brains surpassed human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become extremely powerful--possibly beyond our control. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on humans than on the species itself, so would the fate of humankind depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence.But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed Artificial Intelligence, to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation?

    Yet information graphics is rarely taught in schools or is the focus of on-the-job training. Now, for the first time, Dona M. Wong, a student of the information graphics pioneer Edward Tufte, makes this material available for all of us. In this book, you will learn:to choose the best chart that fits your data;the most effective way to communicate with decision makers when you have five minutes of their time;how to chart currency fluctuations that affect global business;how to use color effectively;how to make a graphic “colorful” even if only black and white are available.The book is organized in a series of mini-workshops backed up with illustrated examples, so not only will you learn what works and what doesn’t but also you can see the dos and don’ts for yourself. This is an invaluable reference work for students and professional in all fields.

    Whether you're a student, a professional, or just curious about statistical analysis, Head First's brain-friendly formula helps you get a firm grasp of statistics so you can understand key points and actually use them. Learn to present data visually with charts and plots; discover the difference between taking the average with mean, median, and mode, and why it's important; learn how to calculate probability and expectation; and much more.Head First Statistics is ideal for high school and college students taking statistics and satisfies the requirements for passing the College Board's Advanced Placement (AP) Statistics Exam. With this book, you'll:Study the full range of topics covered in first-year statistics Tackle tough statistical concepts using Head First's dynamic, visually rich format proven to stimulate learning and help you retain knowledge Explore real-world scenarios, ranging from casino gambling to prescription drug testing, to bring statistical principles to life Discover how to measure spread, calculate odds through probability, and understand the normal, binomial, geometric, and Poisson distributions Conduct sampling, use correlation and regression, do hypothesis testing, perform chi square analysis, and moreBefore you know it, you'll not only have mastered statistics, you'll also see how they work in the real world. Head First Statistics will help you pass your statistics course, and give you a firm understanding of the subject so you can apply the knowledge throughout your life.

    Predictive Analytics For Dummies explores the power of predictive analytics and how you can use it to make valuable predictions for your business, or in fields such as advertising, fraud detection, politics, and others. This practical book does not bog you down with loads of mathematical or scientific theory, but instead helps you quickly see how to use the right algorithms and tools to collect and analyze data and apply it to make predictions.Topics include using structured and unstructured data, building models, creating a predictive analysis roadmap, setting realistic goals, budgeting, and much more.Shows readers how to use Big Data and data mining to discover patterns and make predictions for tech-savvy businesses Helps readers see how to shepherd predictive analytics projects through their companies Explains just enough of the science and math, but also focuses on practical issues such as protecting project budgets, making good presentations, and more Covers nuts-and-bolts topics including predictive analytics basics, using structured and unstructured data, data mining, and algorithms and techniques for analyzing data Also covers clustering, association, and statistical models; creating a predictive analytics roadmap; and applying predictions to the web, marketing, finance, health care, and elsewhere Propose, produce, and protect predictive analytics projects through your company with Predictive Analytics For Dummies.

    With an emphasis on improvements and new features in Spark 2.0, authors Bill Chambers and Matei Zaharia break down Spark topics into distinct sections, each with unique goals. You’ll explore the basic operations and common functions of Spark’s structured APIs, as well as Structured Streaming, a new high-level API for building end-to-end streaming applications. Developers and system administrators will learn the fundamentals of monitoring, tuning, and debugging Spark, and explore machine learning techniques and scenarios for employing MLlib, Spark’s scalable machine-learning library. Get a gentle overview of big data and Spark Learn about DataFrames, SQL, and Datasets—Spark’s core APIs—through worked examples Dive into Spark’s low-level APIs, RDDs, and execution of SQL and DataFrames Understand how Spark runs on a cluster Debug, monitor, and tune Spark clusters and applications Learn the power of Structured Streaming, Spark’s stream-processing engine Learn how you can apply MLlib to a variety of problems, including classification or recommendation

    "His book is very compatible with XP. It is not about drawing pictures of a domain; it is about how you think of it, the language you use to talk about it, and how you organize your software to reflect your improving understanding of it. Eric thinks that learning about your problem domain is as likely to happen at the end of your project as at the beginning, and so refactoring is a big part of his technique. "The book is a fun read. Eric has lots of interesting stories, and he has a way with words. I see this book as essential reading for software developers--it is a future classic." --Ralph Johnson, author of Design Patterns "If you don't think you are getting value from your investment in object-oriented programming, this book will tell you what you've forgotten to do. "Eric Evans convincingly argues for the importance of domain modeling as the central focus of development and provides a solid framework and set of techniques for accomplishing it. This is timeless wisdom, and will hold up long after the methodologies du jour have gone out of fashion." --Dave Collins, author of Designing Object-Oriented User Interfaces "Eric weaves real-world experience modeling--and building--business applications into a practical, useful book. Written from the perspective of a trusted practitioner, Eric's descriptions of ubiquitous language, the benefits of sharing models with users, object life-cycle management, logical and physical application structuring, and the process and results of deep refactoring are major contributions to our field." --Luke Hohmann, author of Beyond Software Architecture "This book belongs on the shelf of every thoughtful software developer." --Kent Beck "What Eric has managed to capture is a part of the design process that experienced object designers have always used, but that we have been singularly unsuccessful as a group in conveying to the rest of the industry. We've given away bits and pieces of this knowledge...but we've never organized and systematized the principles of building domain logic. This book is important." --Kyle Brown, author of Enterprise Java(TM) Programming with IBM(R) WebSphere(R) The software development community widely acknowledges that domain modeling is central to software design. Through domain models, software developers are able to express rich functionality and translate it into a software implementation that truly serves the needs of its users. But despite its obvious importance, there are few practical resources that explain how to incorporate effective domain modeling into the software development process. Domain-Driven Design fills that need. This is not a book about specific technologies. It offers readers a systematic approach to domain-driven design, presenting an extensive set of design best practices, experience-based techniques, and fundamental principles that facilitate the development of software projects facing complex domains. Intertwining design and development practice, this book incorporates numerous examples based on actual projects to illustrate the application of domain-driven design to real-world software development. Readers learn how to use a domain model to make a complex development effort more focused and dynamic. A core of best practices and standard patterns provides a common language for the development team. A shift in emphasis--refactoring not just the code but the model underlying the code--in combination with the frequent iterations of Agile development leads to deeper insight into domains and enhanced communication between domain expert and programmer. Domain-Driven Design then builds on this foundation, and addresses modeling and design for complex systems and larger organizations.Specific topics covered include:Getting all team members to speak the same language Connecting model and implementation more deeply Sharpening key distinctions in a model Managing the lifecycle of a domain object Writing domain code that is safe to combine in elaborate ways Making complex code obvious and predictable Formulating a domain vision statement Distilling the core of a complex domain Digging out implicit concepts needed in the model Applying analysis patterns Relating design patterns to the model Maintaining model integrity in a large system Dealing with coexisting models on the same project Organizing systems with large-scale structures Recognizing and responding to modeling breakthroughs With this book in hand, object-oriented developers, system analysts, and designers will have the guidance they need to organize and focus their work, create rich and useful domain models, and leverage those models into quality, long-lasting software implementations.

    These themes include mathematical reasoning, combinatorial analysis, discrete structures, algorithmic thinking, and enhanced problem-solving skills through modeling. Its intent is to demonstrate the relevance and practicality of discrete mathematics to all students. The Fifth Edition includes a more thorough and linear presentation of logic, proof types and proof writing, and mathematical reasoning. This enhanced coverage will provide students with a solid understanding of the material as it relates to their immediate field of study and other relevant subjects. The inclusion of applications and examples to key topics has been significantly addressed to add clarity to every subject. True to the Fourth Edition, the text-specific web site supplements the subject matter in meaningful ways, offering additional material for students and instructors. Discrete math is an active subject with new discoveries made every year. The continual growth and updates to the web site reflect the active nature of the topics being discussed. The book is appropriate for a one- or two-term introductory discrete mathematics course to be taken by students in a wide variety of majors, including computer science, mathematics, and engineering. College Algebra is the only explicit prerequisite.

     Neural networks are a key element of deep learning and artificial intelligence, which today is capable of some truly impressive feats. Yet too few really understand how neural networks actually work. This guide will take you on a fun and unhurried journey, starting from very simple ideas, and gradually building up an understanding of how neural networks work. You won't need any mathematics beyond secondary school, and an accessible introduction to calculus is also included. The ambition of this guide is to make neural networks as accessible as possible to as many readers as possible - there are enough texts for advanced readers already! You'll learn to code in Python and make your own neural network, teaching it to recognise human handwritten numbers, and performing as well as professionally developed networks. Part 1 is about ideas. We introduce the mathematical ideas underlying the neural networks, gently with lots of illustrations and examples. Part 2 is practical. We introduce the popular and easy to learn Python programming language, and gradually builds up a neural network which can learn to recognise human handwritten numbers, easily getting it to perform as well as networks made by professionals. Part 3 extends these ideas further. We push the performance of our neural network to an industry leading 98% using only simple ideas and code, test the network on your own handwriting, take a privileged peek inside the mysterious mind of a neural network, and even get it all working on a Raspberry Pi. All the code in this has been tested to work on a Raspberry Pi Zero.

    Many examples are taken from real-world projects. The book focuses on high-level design as well as the gritty details of the Python syntax. The provided exercises inspire the reader to think about his or her own code, rather than providing solved problems. If you're new to Object Oriented Programming techniques, or if you have basic Python skills and wish to learn in depth how and when to correctly apply Object Oriented Programming in Python, this is the book for you. If you are an object-oriented programmer for other languages, you too will find this book a useful introduction to Python, as it uses terminology you are already familiar with. Python 2 programmers seeking a leg up in the new world of Python 3 will also find the book beneficial, and you need not necessarily know Python 2.

    This staggering amount of information—unprecedented in history—can tell us a great deal about who we are—the fears, desires, and behaviors that drive us, and the conscious and unconscious decisions we make. From the profound to the mundane, we can gain astonishing knowledge about the human psyche that less than twenty years ago, seemed unfathomable.Everybody Lies offers fascinating, surprising, and sometimes laugh-out-loud insights into everything from economics to ethics to sports to race to sex, gender and more, all drawn from the world of big data. What percentage of white voters didn’t vote for Barack Obama because he’s black? Does where you go to school effect how successful you are in life? Do parents secretly favor boy children over girls? Do violent films affect the crime rate? Can you beat the stock market? How regularly do we lie about our sex lives and who’s more self-conscious about sex, men or women?Investigating these questions and a host of others, Seth Stephens-Davidowitz offers revelations that can help us understand ourselves and our lives better. Drawing on studies and experiments on how we really live and think, he demonstrates in fascinating and often funny ways the extent to which all the world is indeed a lab. With conclusions ranging from strange-but-true to thought-provoking to disturbing, he explores the power of this digital truth serum and its deeper potential—revealing biases deeply embedded within us, information we can use to change our culture, and the questions we’re afraid to ask that might be essential to our health—both emotional and physical. All of us are touched by big data everyday, and its influence is multiplying. Everybody Lies challenges us to think differently about how we see it and the world.

    This book is both an example-driven programmer's guide and a keep-on-your-desk reference, with new chapters that explain everything you need to know to get the most out of JavaScript, including:Scripted HTTP and Ajax XML processing Client-side graphics using the canvas tag Namespaces in JavaScript--essential when writing complex programs Classes, closures, persistence, Flash, and JavaScript embedded in Java applicationsPart I explains the core JavaScript language in detail. If you are new to JavaScript, it will teach you the language. If you are already a JavaScript programmer, Part I will sharpen your skills and deepen your understanding of the language.Part II explains the scripting environment provided by web browsers, with a focus on DOM scripting with unobtrusive JavaScript. The broad and deep coverage of client-side JavaScript is illustrated with many sophisticated examples that demonstrate how to:Generate a table of contents for an HTML document Display DHTML animations Automate form validation Draw dynamic pie charts Make HTML elements draggable Define keyboard shortcuts for web applications Create Ajax-enabled tool tips Use XPath and XSLT on XML documents loaded with Ajax And much morePart III is a complete reference for core JavaScript. It documents every class, object, constructor, method, function, property, and constant defined by JavaScript 1.5 and ECMAScript Version 3.Part IV is a reference for client-side JavaScript, covering legacy web browser APIs, the standard Level 2 DOM API, and emerging standards such as the XMLHttpRequest object and the canvas tag.More than 300,000 JavaScript programmers around the world have made this their indispensable reference book for building JavaScript applications."A must-have reference for expert JavaScript programmers...well-organized and detailed."-- Brendan Eich, creator of JavaScript

    Not only are all of our business, scientific, and government transactions now computerized, but the widespread use of digital cameras, publication tools, and bar codes also generate data. On the collection side, scanned text and image platforms, satellite remote sensing systems, and the World Wide Web have flooded us with a tremendous amount of data. This explosive growth has generated an even more urgent need for new techniques and automated tools that can help us transform this data into useful information and knowledge.Like the first edition, voted the most popular data mining book by KD Nuggets readers, this book explores concepts and techniques for the discovery of patterns hidden in large data sets, focusing on issues relating to their feasibility, usefulness, effectiveness, and scalability. However, since the publication of the first edition, great progress has been made in the development of new data mining methods, systems, and applications. This new edition substantially enhances the first edition, and new chapters have been added to address recent developments on mining complex types of data- including stream data, sequence data, graph structured data, social network data, and multi-relational data.A comprehensive, practical look at the concepts and techniques you need to know to get the most out of real business dataUpdates that incorporate input from readers, changes in the field, and more material on statistics and machine learningDozens of algorithms and implementation examples, all in easily understood pseudo-code and suitable for use in real-world, large-scale data mining projectsComplete classroom support for instructors at www.mkp.com/datamining2e companion site