Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    He worked with - and relaxed with - scientific giants of that time such as Edward Teller, Enrico Fermi, Stan Ulam, John von Neumann, and John Wheeler, and here offers illuminating insights into the personalities, the strengths, and the quirks of these men. Well known for his ability to explain physics to nonspecialists, Ford also brings to life the physics of fission and fusion and provides a brief history of nuclear science from the discovery of radioactivity in 1896 to the ten-megaton explosion of “Mike” that obliterated a Pacific Island in 1952. Ford worked at both Los Alamos and Princeton's Project Matterhorn, and brings out Matterhorn's major, but previously unheralded contribution to the development of the H bomb. Outside the lab, he drove a battered Chevrolet around New Mexico, a bantam motorcycle across the country, and a British roadster around New Jersey. Part of the charm of Ford's book is the way in which he leavens his well-researched descriptions of the scientific work with brief tales of his life away from weapons.Contents: The Big Idea The Protagonists The Choice The Scientists, the Officials, and the President Nuclear Energy Some Physics Going West A New World The Classical Super Calculating and Testing Constructing Matterhorn Academia Cowers New Mexico, New York, and New Jersey The Garwin Design Climbing Matterhorn It's More Than a Boy Readership: A memoir for general readership in the history of science.Key Features: It contains real physics, clearly presented for non-specialists Combining historical scholarship and his own recollections, the author offers important insights into the people and the work that led to the first H bomb Personal anecdotes enliven the book

    This is Nick's story of his world record-breaking adventure and the extraordinary people who joined him along the way. On January 6th 2018, Nick Butter tied his laces and stepped out on to an icy pavement in Toronto, where he began to take the first steps of an epic journey that would see him run 196 marathons in every one of the world's 196 countries. Spending almost two years on the road and relying on the kindness of strangers to keep him moving, Nick's odyssey allowed him to travel slowly, on foot, immersing himself in the diverse cultures and customs of his host nations. Running through capital cities and deserts, around islands and through spectacular landscapes, Nick dodges bullets in Guinea-Bissau, crosses battlefields in Syria, survives a wild dog attack in Tunisia and runs around an erupting volcano in Guatemala. Along the way, he is often joined by local supporters and fellow runners, curious children and bemused passers-by. Telling their stories alongside his own, Nick captures the unique spirit of each place he visits and forges a new relationship with the world around him. Running the World captures Nick's journey as he sets three world records and covers over five thousand miles. As he recounts his adventures, he shares his unique perspective on our glorious planet, celebrates the diversity of human experience, and reflects on the overwhelming power of running.

    It presents the important traditional content of mineralogy including crystallography, chemical bonding, controls on mineral structure, mineral stability, and crystal growth to provide a foundation that enables students to understand the nature and occurrence of minerals. Physical, optical, and X-ray powder diffraction techniques of mineral study are described in detail, and common chemical analytical methods are outlined as well. Detailed descriptions of over 100 common minerals are provided, and the geologic context within which these minerals occur is emphasized. Appendices provide tables and diagrams to help students with mineral identification, using both physical and optical properties. Numerous line drawings, photographs, and photomicrographs help make complex concepts understandable. Introduction to Mineralogy not only provides specific knowledge about minerals but also helps students develop the intellectual tools essential for a solid, scientific education. This comprehensive text is useful for undergraduate students in a wide range of mineralogy courses.

    This is the story of Albert Einstein who born in Germany in 1879. Despite facing countless difficulties in his life, he earned his name in the field of science and proved that what extent a person can go to chose his way. No one born as a genius—man's hard work and passion makes him a genius. CONTENTS: 1. Early Life 2. School Years 3. University Years 4. Post-University Years 5. Scientific Discoveries 6. Personal Life 7. Interesting Facts about Einstein 8. Famous Words by Albert Einstein 9. An Overview of Einstein’s Life

    In keeping with previous versions, the 3rd edition uses numerous historical vignettes that show the evolution of the field. New pedagogical features--"Roadmaps" showing the development of a given topic, and "Design Boxes" giving examples of design decisions--will make the 3rd edition even more practical and user-friendly than before. The 3rd edition strikes a careful balance between classical methods of determining compressible flow, and modern numerical and computer techniques (such as CFD) now used widely in industry & research. A new Book Website will contain all problem solutions for instructors.

    Do you want your students to just take psychology or to experience psychology? Laura King's approach to introductory psychology embodies a balanced consideration of functioning behavior as well as dysfunction and a view of psychology as an integrated whole.

    Cameron Webb’s brief but biting assault on the wide spectrum of religiosity that dominates 21st century America, from the hateful and anti-intellectual dogma of the Christian Right to the whitewashed progressivism of religious moderates. It is also a fascinating and humbling journey into the heart of the universe's most mind-numbing wonders.Drawing on recent insights from cosmology and evolution, Despicable Meme paints a vivid portrait of a cosmos unlike anything ever imagined by the provincial, human-centered faiths of the past – a universe of countless worlds spread across unfathomable distances and times, and where, on at least one of those worlds, the slow march of time would combine with the purposeless mechanisms of chemistry and physics to create a being capable of believing that he alone is the reason for it all.With piercing intelligence and candor, Despicable Meme exposes the folly of that conceit and dispenses with the widespread but utterly improbable notion of a personal creator. But it saves its harshest criticism for the vapid accommodationism of religious liberals, those who unknowingly or uncaringly give cover to the misogynistic, racist, homophobic paranoia of the fanatics by refusing to condemn, or quietly tolerating, the outlandish and immoral doctrines that lie festering at the center of their own “moderate” faiths.Despicable Meme is not only a blistering condemnation of radical fundamentalism, it is an impassioned appeal to the rest of us to once and for all abandon the superstitions of the religion we were raised in and embrace the beauty of an endlessly wondrous, but godless, universe.Show less

    Essentials of Physical Anthropology, Third Edition, is rich with stunning and photorealistic art, thoughtful pedagogy, innovative media, and up-to-date, student-centered content that illuminate physical anthropology's most important themes.

    This text provides a basic treatment of discrete-event simulation, including the proper collection and analysis of data, the use of analytic techniques, verification and validation of models, and designing simulation experiments. It offers an up-to-date treatment of simulation of manufacturing and material handling systems, computer systems, and computer networks. Students and instructors will find a variety of resources at the associated website, www.bcnn.net, including simulation source code for download, additional exercises and solutions, web links and errata.

    Over the years their textbooks have introduced significant theoretical and pedagogical innovations in statics, dynamics, and mechanics of materials education. At the same time, their careful presentation of content, unmatched levels of accuracy, and attention to detail have made their texts the standard for excellence. The new Seventh Edition of Vector Mechanics for Engineers: Statics and Dynamics continues this tradition. The seventh edition is complemented by a media and supplement package that is targeted to address core course needs for both the student and the instructor.

    Updated with the latest advances in the field, Jerry FitzGerald and Alan Dennis' 10th Edition of Business Data Communications and Networking continues to provide the fundamental concepts and cutting-edge coverage applications that students need to succeed in this fast-moving field.Authors FitzGerald and Dennis have developed a foundation and balanced presentation from which new technologies and applications can be easily understood, evaluated, and compared.

    I've examined every one and Cipani's is clearly the best. The assessment part is great, and I particularly like the protocol format for interventions. Cipani's text nicely fills a big gap between research and application. Were I teaching a seminar to clinicians, I think the text would be perfect. -- Brian A. Iwata, PhD, University of FloridaProfessionals who work in mental health and educational settings are frequently faced with clients (children, adolescents, adults) who engage in serious problem behaviors. Such behaviors often impact the client's welfare and ability to live, work, and be educated in mainstream environments. Children and adolescents who manifest these behaviors are particularly vulnerable to these disruptions, which can have a far-reaching impact on their development and future prospects.This practical book, written both for clinician/educators and high-level students, creates a function-based behavioral diagnostic classification system, the first of its kind, as well as treatment protocols that fit such a diagnostic system. Heavily practitioner-oriented, the book will address the full range of behaviors - ranging from aggression, self-injury, stereotypic behavior (repetitive body movements), tantrums, and non-compliance - with real life and hypothetical cases to help clinicians think through the full range of treatment options. Unique in moving beyond functional assessment to assessment diagnosis and treatment, this book will be highly useful for mental health clinicians, students of Advanced Behavior Analysis, and special education practitioners among others.Professor Cipani has also prepared extensive ancillary material for use in teaching this book and will make it available to anyone who has adopted it for course use. Instructors who have adopted the title may inquire of Professor Cipani at ennioc26@hotmail.com

    Provides a review of introductory noncalculus-based physics for those who do not have a strong background in mathematics.

    The most popular applications-oriented approach to engineering technology fluid mechanics, this text covers all of the basic principles of fluid mechanics-both statics and dynamics-in a clear, practical presentation that ties theory directly to real devices and systems used in chemical process industries, manufacturing, plant engineering, waste water handling and product design. Readable and clearly written, the new 6th edition brings a much more attractive appearance to the book and includes many updates and additional features.