Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Joining the professional web designers and programmers are new audiences who need to know a little bit of code at work (update a content management system or e-commerce store) and those who want to make their personal blogs more attractive. Many books teaching HTML and CSS are dry and only written for those who want to become programmers, which is why this book takes an entirely new approach. • Introduces HTML and CSS in a way that makes them accessible to everyone—hobbyists, students, and professionals—and it’s full-color throughout • Utilizes information graphics and lifestyle photography to explain the topics in a simple way that is engaging • Boasts a unique structure that allows you to progress through the chapters from beginning to end or just dip into topics of particular interest at your leisureThis educational book is one that you will enjoy picking up, reading, then referring back to. It will make you wish other technical topics were presented in such a simple, attractive and engaging way!

    The term “complexity” can be misleading, however, because what makes West’s discoveries so beautiful is that he has found an underlying simplicity that unites the seemingly complex and diverse phenomena of living systems, including our bodies, our cities and our businesses. Fascinated by issues of aging and mortality, West applied the rigor of a physicist to the biological question of why we live as long as we do and no longer. The result was astonishing, and changed science, creating a new understanding of energy use and metabolism: West found that despite the riotous diversity in the sizes of mammals, they are all, to a large degree, scaled versions of each other. If you know the size of a mammal, you can use scaling laws to learn everything from how much food it eats per day, what its heart-rate is, how long it will take to mature, its lifespan, and so on. Furthermore, the efficiency of the mammal’s circulatory systems scales up precisely based on weight: if you compare a mouse, a human and an elephant on a logarithmic graph, you find with every doubling of average weight, a species gets 25% more efficient—and lives 25% longer. This speaks to everything from how long we can expect to live to how many hours of sleep we need. Fundamentally, he has proven, the issue has to do with the fractal geometry of the networks that supply energy and remove waste from the organism's body. West's work has been game-changing for biologists, but then he made the even bolder move of exploring his work's applicability to cities. Cities, too, are constellations of networks and laws of scalability relate with eerie precision to them. For every doubling in a city's size, the city needs 15% less road, electrical wire, and gas stations to support the same population. More amazingly, for every doubling in size, cities produce 15% more patents and more wealth, as well as 15% more crime and disease. This broad pattern lays the groundwork for a new science of cities. Recently, West has applied his revolutionary work on cities and biological life to the business world. This investigation has led to powerful insights into why some companies thrive while others fail. The implications of these discoveries are far-reaching, and are just beginning to be explored. Scale is a thrilling scientific adventure story about the elemental natural laws that bind us together in simple but profound ways. Through the brilliant mind of Geoffrey West, we can envision how cities, companies and biological life alike are dancing to the same simple, powerful tune, however diverse and unrelated they are to each other.From the Hardcover edition.

    Learn how to use CDs, bonds, and bond funds to manage risk/reward even during low interest rates. You will learn:How to choose your stocks/bonds allocationHow to become immune to changing interest ratesWhen to use CDs and individual bondsHow to choose a good bond fundHow to hedge against unexpected inflationContents:Foreword by Larry SwedroeIntroduction- Who Should Read This Book?- Start with a Sound Financial LifestyleWhy Bother With Bonds?- Stocks are risky in the short-run, and the long run too!- Bonds Make Risk More Palatable- Bonds Can Be A Safe Bet- Bonds Are An Attractive Investment DiversifierLife Is Complicated. Bonds Are Not.- What is a Money Market Fund?- Are CDs Better Than Bonds?- What Are Bonds?- What is a Bond Ladder?- Individual Bonds or a Bond Fund?Bonds: Risks and Returns- Yield, Price And Making Comparisons— How To Compare Individual Bond Returns— How to Compare Bond Fund Returns— Total Return: To Measure And Compare Performance- How To Reduce Risk From Interest Rates Changes— Duration: The Point of Indifference to Interest Rates— Duration: The Measure of Sensitivity to Interest Rates- How To Reduce Risk From Unexpected Inflation— Real versus Nominal Interest Rates— Why Include TIPS In Your Portfolio?- Credit Quality or Default RiskBuild The Bond Portion Of Your Portfolio- Start With Your Goals.- How Much Risk Is Right For You?— Understand How Much Risk You’re Taking— Take Your Risk In Stock Market, Not Bond Market— How Much in Bonds? How Much in Stocks?— Your Needs Change Over Time- The Importance of Low Cost— How Much To Diversify Bonds?— The Importance of Low Cost— Five Low-Cost Strategies You Can Do Yourself- Taxes Matter- Example Portfolios (both good and bad)Common Misconceptions Important to Correct- Stocks Are Safer In The Long Run- Holding a Bond (or CD) to Maturity Eliminates Risk- Stocks Are Safer Than Bonds- The Best Funds Have The Most Stars- A One Percent Fee Is Small- Rising Interest Rates are Bad for Bond Holders- You Can’t Beat the Market Using Index Funds- Use Multiple Investment Companies To Diversify- You Need Many Mutual Funds to Diversify- Frugal Means StingyReviews Worth Noting:“[As] stocks have surged and bond yields have dwindled, investors increasingly ask "Why bother with bonds?" Rick Van Ness takes this question and runs with it in his book sporting this provocative title. Sooner or later, this question will answer itself, and it will behoove all investors to get to know Rick before it does. Read it, enjoy it, and profit from it—before it's too late.”William J. BernsteinAuthor, The Four Pillars of Investing“In his simply stated and entertaining book, Rick Van Ness eloquently instructs the reader on how to do bonds right – in fact, better than any single book I’ve read.”Allan S. RothAuthor: How a Second Grader Beats Wall Street“If you are a DIY investor . . . you should read this book. It will steer you clear of areas you need to avoid and into where you should be. A quick read filled with valuable info!”Robert Wasilewski“This book should be part of America’s high school curriculum.”Andrew HallamAuthor: Millionaire Teacher

    Taylor discusses all the fundamental aspects of Austrian thought, from subjectivism and marginal utility to inflation and the business cycle. This new and revised edition is widely influential among economics students.For the newcomer, this work represents a concise introduction to both the historical setting of the Austrian School and to the ideas espoused by its members.This volume includes chapters on:Social Cooperation and Resource Allocation Economic Calculation The Subjective Theory of Value The Market and Market Prices Production in an Evenly Rotating Economy From an Evenly Rotating Economy to the Real World Inflation and the Business Trade Cycle96 pp. (pb)

    It splits the mechanical properties chapter into two separate chapters in order to provide additional and expanded coverage of such topics as fatigue, crack propagation and stress, rupture time, and temperature relationships in creep, to name just a few. In addition, all new topics are accompanied by new problems for a stronger understanding of recent developments in the field.

    Already used by people and companies around the world, many forecast that Bitcoin could radically transform the global economy. The value of a bitcoin has soared from less than a dollar in 2011 to well over $1000 in 2013, with many spikes and crashes along the way. The rise in value has brought Bitcoin into the public eye, but the cryptocurrency still confuses many people. Bitcoin for the Befuddled covers everything you need to know about Bitcoin—what it is, how it works, and how to acquire, store, and use bitcoins safely and securely. You'll also learn about Bitcoin's history, its complex cryptography, and its potential impact on trade and commerce. The book includes a humorous, full-color comic explaining Bitcoin concepts, plus a glossary of terms for easy reference.

    Readers will progress from building a basic physics engine to creating intelligent moving objects and complex systems, setting the foundation for further experiments in generative design. Subjects covered include forces, trigonometry, fractals, cellular automata, self-organization, and genetic algorithms. The book's examples are written in Processing, an open-source language and development environment built on top of the Java programming language. On the book's website (http://www.natureofcode.com), the examples run in the browser via Processing's JavaScript mode.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.