Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    Gravetter, and co-author Lori-Ann B. Forzano have written a text for research methods that helps you see how interesting and exciting experimental and non-experimental research can be. Inviting and conversational, RESEARCH METHODS FOR THE BEHAVIORAL SCIENCES, Third Edition, leads you through the research process from start to finish. The text opens with tips and strategies for generating research ideas, moves to selecting measures and participants, and then offers an examination of research strategy and design. This step-by-step approach emphasizes the decisions researchers must make at each stage of the process. The authors avoid a "cookbook" approach to the facts by linking terminology with applied concepts; their "lecture in a book" style emphasizes discussion and explanation of topics. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises and activities.

    Numerous case studies, followed by the author's analysis of the cases, helps you structure your thinking and apply professional standards to complex cases. Coverage includes ethics, legal research, and the professional literature in major topics in ethics (such as consent, confidentiality, and multiple relationships) and in applied settings (such as community mental health, private practice, schools, and teaching/research).

    Written by one of the world's leading experimental cosmologists, this short but deeply insightful book describes what scientists are revealing through precise measurements of the faint thermal afterglow of the Big Bang--known as the cosmic microwave background, or CMB--and how their findings are transforming our view of the cosmos.Blending the latest findings in cosmology with essential concepts from physics, Lyman Page first helps readers to grasp the sheer enormity of the universe, explaining how to understand the history of its formation and evolution in space and time. Then he sheds light on how spatial variations in the CMB formed, how they reveal the age, size, and geometry of the universe, and how they offer a blueprint for the formation of cosmic structure.Not only does Page explain current observations and measurements, he describes how they can be woven together into a unified picture to form the Standard Model of Cosmology. Yet much remains unknown, and this incisive book also describes the search for ever deeper knowledge at the field's frontiers--from quests to understand the nature of neutrinos and dark energy to investigations into the physics of the very early universe.

    It provides students who lack a strong science background the ideal balance of reliable nutrition information and practical consumer-oriented knowledge.

    Identity Theft. Corporate Espionage. National secrets compromised. Can anyone promise security in our digital world?The man who introduced cryptography to the boardroom says no. But in this fascinating read, he shows us how to come closer by developing security measures in terms of context, tools, and strategy. Security is a process, not a product – one that system administrators and corporate executives alike must understand to survive.This edition updated with new information about post-9/11 security.

    Over 80 per cent of adults in the UK use caffeine every day, but when does this habit become a reliance? Caffeine is a bitter addictive drug which attacks the central nervous system and makes you jittery. Fooling you into thinking you are more alert, caffeine will often disrupt your sleep and actually increase overall fatigue. Quite simply, it's bad for you with no real benefits.In The Easy Way to Quit Caffeine, Allen Carr addresses the difficulties that coffee-drinkers and soda consumers face in trying to quit caffeine. By explaining what caffeine does to your body, and providing simple step-by-step instructions to free you from your addiction, Carr shows you how to lead a happier, healthier and more chilled life.

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    The planet most like ours, it has still been thought impossible to reach, let alone explore and inhabit.Now with the advent of a revolutionary new plan, all this has changed. leading space exploration authority Robert Zubrin has crafted a daring new blueprint, Mars Direct, presented here with illustrations, photographs, and engaging anecdotes.The Case for Mars is not a vision for the far future or one that will cost us impossible billions. It explains step-by-step how we can use present-day technology to send humans to Mars within ten years; actually produce fuel and oxygen on the planet's surface with Martian natural resources; how we can build bases and settlements; and how we can one day "terraform" Mars--a process that can alter the atmosphere of planets and pave the way for sustainable life.

    The authors identify 10 qualities, attributes, and skills that help to explain Lincoln's effectiveness, despite seemingly insurmountable odds:1. Implementing and sustaining a mission and vision with focused and profound clarity2. Communicating ideas effectively with precise and straightforward language3. Building a diverse and competent team to successfully address the mission4. Engendering trust, loyalty, and respect through humility, humor, and personal example5. Leading and serving with emotional intelligence and empathy6. Exercising situational competence and responding appropriately to implement effective change7. Rising beyond personal and professional trials through tenacity, persistence, resilience, and courage8. Exercising purposeful visibility9. Demonstrating personal growth and enhanced competence as a lifetime learner, willing to reflect on and expand ideas10. Believing that hope can become a realityChapters devoted to each element explore the historical record of Lincoln's life and actions, then discuss the implications for modern educators. End-of-chapter exercises provide a structure for reflection, analysis of current behaviors, and guidance for future work, so that readers can create their own path to success--inspired by the example of one of the greatest leaders of all time.

    

    Whenyou upgrade to Extra Class, you gain access to the entire Amateur Radio frequency spectrum. Ues this book to ace the top-level ham radio licensing exam. Our expert instruction will lead you through all of the knowledge you need to pass the exam: rules, specific operating skills and more advanced electronics theory.

    The gear you select and how you use it can mean big results—or bigger disappointment.FASTER takes a scientific look at triathlon to see what truly makes you faster—and busts the myths and doublespeak that waste your money and race times. In this fascinating exploration of the forces at play in the swim-bike-run sport, astronautical engineer and triathlete Jim Gourley shows where to find free speed, speed on a budget, and the gear upgrades that are worth it.FASTER offers specific, science-based guidance on the fastest techniques and the most effective gear, answering questions like: •    Which wetsuit is best for me? •    What’s the best way to draft a swimmer? •    Should I buy a lighter bike? •    Deep dish or disc wheels? •    Are lighter shoes faster? •    Who’s right about running technique? Gourley reviews published studies in peer-reviewed journals to show what scientists have learned about swim drafting, pacing the bike leg, race strategy for short and long-course racing, and the fastest ways to handle transitions.FASTER will change how you think about your body, your gear, and the world around you. With science on your side, you'll make the smart calls that will make you a better, faster triathlete.

    Each chapter focuses on one theory or group of theories, providing brief biographies that shed light on how the theories were formed.

    The Great Ideas of Classical Physics 2. Describing MotionA Break from Aristotle 3. Describing Ever More Complex Motion 4. Astronomy as a Bridge to Modern Physics 5. Isaac NewtonThe Dawn of Classical Physics 6. Newton QuantifiedForce and Acceleration 7. Newton and the Connections to Astronomy 8. Universal Gravitation 9. Newton's Third Law 10. Conservation of Momentum 11. Beyond NewtonWork and Energy 12. Power and the Newtonian Synthesis 13. Further DevelopmentsStatic Electricity 14. Electricity, Magnetism, and Force Fields 15. Electrical Currents and Voltage 16. The Origin of Electric and Magnetic Fields 17. Unification IMaxwell's Equations 18. Unification IIElectromagnetism and Light 19. Vibrations and Waves 20. Sound Waves and Light Waves 21. The Atomic Hypothesis 22. Energy in SystemsHeat and Thermodynamics 23. Heat and the Second Law of Thermodynamics 24. The Grand Picture of Classical Physics