In 1967, they said the USSR would have one of the fastest-growing economies in the year 2000; in 2000, the USSR did not exist. In 1911, it was pronounced that there would be no more wars in Europe; we all know how that turned out. Face it, experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys. And yet every day we ask them to predict the future — everything from the weather to the likelihood of a catastrophic terrorist attack. Future Babble is the first book to examine this phenomenon, showing why our brains yearn for certainty about the future, why we are attracted to those who predict it confidently, and why it’s so easy for us to ignore the trail of outrageously wrong forecasts.In this fast-paced, example-packed, sometimes darkly hilarious book, journalist Dan Gardner shows how seminal research by UC Berkeley professor Philip Tetlock proved that pundits who are more famous are less accurate — and the average expert is no more accurate than a flipped coin. Gardner also draws on current research in cognitive psychology, political science, and behavioral economics to discover something quite reassuring: The future is always uncertain, but the end is not always near.

    Get the most recent updates on MLA citation in a convenient, 40-page resource based on The MLA Handbook, 8th Edition, with plenty of models. Browse our catalog or contact your representative for a full listing of updated titles and packages, or to request a custom ISBN.The unique collaborative effort of a professor of English and a professor of philosophy, Current Issues and Enduring Questions is an extensive resource for teaching argument, persuasive writing, and rigorous critical thinking. This extraordinarily versatile text and reader continues to address current student interests and trends in argument, research, and writing.Its comprehensive coverage of classic and contemporary approaches to argument includes Aristotelian, Toulmin, and a range of alternative views, including a new chapter on analyzing and writing about arguments in popular culture. Readings on contemporary controversies (including student loan debt, locavorism, and the boundaries of online privacy) and classical philosophical questions (such as How free is the will of the individual?) are sure to spark student interest and lively discussion and writing, and new e-Pages take advantage of what the Web can do by including videos, speeches, film trailers, and other multimodal arguments.

    Stephen Montgomery presents a fresh new look at the four temperaments, the four ancient "people patterns" that are the key to personality types. In this updated and expanded 2nd edition, Dr. Montgomery cites over 250 characters from well-known movies and TV shows The Wizard of Oz, Sex and the City, Harry Potter, Star Trek, Star Wars, The Fantastic Four, The Incredibles, The Lord of the Rings, Ghost Busters, and many more to help bring the temperaments alive for a modern audience.People Patterns features an easy-to-score personality quiz, and easy-to-read chapters on dating & mating, parents & children, and talent & career (with over 750 job suggestions grouped according to type). The book begins with a brief history of the four temperaments (tracing the idea back to Hippocrates), and it ends with port

    More and more parents are refusing to vaccinate their children for fear it causes autism, though this link can been consistently disproved. And about 40 percent of Americans believe that the threat of global warming is exaggerated, despite near consensus in the scientific community that manmade climate change is real.Why do people believe bunk? And what causes them to embrace such pseudoscientific beliefs and practices? Noted skeptic Massimo Pigliucci sets out to separate the fact from the fantasy in this entertaining exploration of the nature of science, the borderlands of fringe science, and—borrowing a famous phrase from philosopher Jeremy Bentham—the nonsense on stilts. Presenting case studies on a number of controversial topics, Pigliucci cuts through the ambiguity surrounding science to look more closely at how science is conducted, how it is disseminated, how it is interpreted, and what it means to our society. The result is in many ways a “taxonomy of bunk” that explores the intersection of science and culture at large.No one—not the public intellectuals in the culture wars between defenders and detractors of science nor the believers of pseudoscience themselves—is spared Pigliucci’s incisive analysis. In the end, Nonsense on Stilts is a timely reminder of the need to maintain a line between expertise and assumption. Broad in scope and implication, it is also ultimately a captivating guide for the intelligent citizen who wishes to make up her own mind while navigating the perilous debates that will affect the future of our planet.

    She is searching for a new girl to join her ranks, at least temporarily. Neva Mulroney falls into Ophelia's clutches, but she's got a few tricks of her own.

    The purpose of the present volume is to make Adler's contributions to the theory & practice of psychology available in a systematic & at the same time authentic form. To this end we made selections from his writings & organized them with the aim of approximating the general presentation of a college textbook. Because every word in the main body of the work is Adler's, the outcome of our efforts, if we have been successful, should be the equivalent of a textbook by Adler on Individual Psychology, the name which he gave to his system.

    Inspired by and expanding on a series of lectures presented by Leonard Peikoff, David Harriman presents a fascinating answer to the problem of induction-the epistemological question of how we can know the truth of inductive generalizations.Ayn Rand presented her revolutionary theory of concepts in her book Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology. As Dr. Peikoff subsequently explored the concept of induction, he sought out David Harriman, a physicist who had taught philosophy, for his expert knowledge of the scientific discovery process.Here, Harriman presents the result of a collaboration between scientist and philosopher. Beginning with a detailed discussion of the role of mathematics and experimentation in validating generalizations in physics-looking closely at the reasoning of scientists such as Galileo, Kepler, Newton, Lavoisier, and Maxwell-Harriman skillfully argues that the inductive method used in philosophy is in principle indistinguishable from the method used in physics.

    We cannot choose to avoid philosophy, we can only choose whether we understand it or not. Stefan Molyneux, host of Freedomain Radio – the largest and most popular philosophy show in the world, with over 600 million views and downloads – takes you on a spectacular journey through the most foundational philosophical questions of the ages, clearing up and clarifying the most thorny problems posed by philosophers throughout history: -How do we know what is real? -How do we know what is true? -How do we know what is right? -How do we know what is good? -How do we know we even have a choice? -How do we convince others? These are all questions that we – as individuals and societies – wrestle with every day. These questions have challenged, motivated and plagued mankind for thousands of years. “Essential Philosophy” answers these questions with rigourous, illuminating and entertaining logic, reasoning from deep first principles to spectacular final conclusions. There is no need for confusion, there is no need for despair, there is no need for fear – pick up this book now, absorb the true power of philosophy, and live a rational moral life to the fullest. And then, give “Essential Philosophy” to others, so that the world may one day live in reason and peace.

    I thoroughly enjoyed this book and would recommend it to anyone who wants to improve his reasoning skills."--Tim Challies, curriculum reviewer"Cartoon and comic illustrations, humorous examples, and a very reader-friendly writing style make this the sort of course students will enjoy."--Cathy Duffy, homeschool curriculum reviewer"I really like The Fallacy Detective because it has funny cartoons, silly stories, and teaches you a lot!"--11 Year OldWhat is a fallacy? A fallacy is an error in logic a place where someone has made a mistake in his thinking. This is a handy book for learning to spot common errors in reasoning.- For ages twelve through adult.- Fun to use -- learn skills you can use right away.- Peanuts, Dilbert, and Calvin and Hobbes cartoons.- Includes The Fallacy Detective Game.- Exercises with answer key.

    Northern New Mexico is home both to the most provocative new enterprises in quantum physics, information science, and the evolution of complexity and to the cosmologies of the Tewa Indians and the Catholic Penitentes. As it draws the reader into this landscape, juxtaposing the systems of belief that have taken root there, Fire in the Mind into a gripping intellectual adventure story that compels us to ask where science ends and religion begins."A must for all those seriously interested in the key ideas at the frontier of scientific discourse."--Paul Davies

    This book talks about how the atom emerges as a miniature but complete replica of the energy structure common to all forms of life - cosmic, planetary, human and subhuman.

     What did they do differently that made them so recognizable for their intellects? • They thought slowly and deliberately before making a snap judgment or decision • They questioned every fact and opinion (including their own) • They took the time to study the subject or object of their decision making to gather information before jumping to conclusions • They accepted and expected that human nature is ultimately biased and prone to make cognitive errors The Critical Thinker gives you a thorough description of the rules and principles of critical thinking practiced by Einstein, Plato and every great thinker in history. You will learn about the most important critical thinking principles as well as shortcuts to make better decisions in specific situations. These critical thinking principles will help your personal life, career, and friendships. Improve your critical, logical, observational, and rational thinking skills with the timeless principles presented in this book. Critical thinking skills will improve your relationships and your financial life too. • Learn the main principles of critical thinking. • Train your cognitive muscles to think faster and jump to the best conclusions effortlessly. • Find the most rewarding options in any opportunity. • Don’t just attack symptoms, solve your problems once and for all. Become a lie and cognitive bias detector. The Critical Thinker is a fitting read for everyone who wants to improve their critical thinking skills. Regardless of your stage of life or field of work (business, education, healthcare, or student) you’ll find the book equally useful. • Become a more effective communicator with more impactful points. • Detect the thinking errors of larger groups or individuals. • Powerful questions to effectively self-assess. • Best practices to employ critical thinking principles in your life immediately. Improving your critical thinking skills will help you save time, filter out irrelevant information efficiently, and prioritize your resources to get the best results. It will help you identify better problem-solving approaches rather than relying on standard methods that don’t suit your case. Critical thinking will enhance your communication skills, reasoning, and logic. You will also become more compassionate and understanding for the perspectives of others. Be solution-oriented, solve difficult tasks, and understand the world better. *Please note the following before purchasing the book: The book is not strictly about the philosophy of Socrates, Plato, and Aristotle. Their picture is used for cover art purposes.

    You may even end up ‘smarter than Google.’ But you will not readily put down this exhilarating adventure in ideas.” — George Gilder, author of Knowledge and Power and Life After Google   Can you outsmart an economist? Steven Landsburg, acclaimed author and professor of economics, dares you to try. In this whip-smart, entertaining, and entirely unconventional economics primer, he brings together over one hundred puzzles and brain teasers that illustrate the subject’s key concepts and pitfalls. From warm-up exercises to get your brain working, to logic and probability problems, to puzzles covering more complex topics like inferences, strategy, and irrationality, Can You Outsmart an Economist? will show you how to do just that by expanding the way you think about decision making and problem solving. Let the games begin!   “Entertaining as well as edifying. Read it, expand your mind, and have fun!”— N. Gregory Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics, Harvard University

    In this, the fourth edition, Jonathan Baron retains the comprehensive attention to the key questions addressed in the previous editions - How should we think? What, if anything, keeps us from thinking that way? How can we improve our thinking and decision making? - and his expanded treatment of topics such as risk, utilitarianism, Baye's theorem, and moral thinking. With the student in mind, the fourth edition emphasizes the development of an understanding of the fundamental concepts in judgment and decision making. This book is essential reading for students and scholars in judgment and decision making and related fields, including psychology, economics, law, medicine, and business.

    Inside: Logic Resource CD-ROM