Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

     99.99% of the world’s mysteries are yet to be discovered and/or solved. Why not… It’s time for you to rediscover science? One of the most compelling draws of the sciences for many people is the potential of discovering something that was not known before. Whether someone’s doing it for fame, for fortune, or just for the fun of it, discovering something new, leaving your own personal mark for the rest of humanity’s time in the universe, is a tempting prospect for many. How would you feel about naming a star, and for others to know that you named it? That star would be visible in the sky for the rest of your lifetime, and more than likely for your great-great-great-grandchildren’s lifetimes. Your discovery would be immortalized above for the life of the star. Inside this book you will discover: -String theory and how it came about -Black holes and quantum gravity -If Schrödinger’s Cat is really a cat? -Disagreements between Einstein and Bohr -The double slit experiment Attention! Quantum Physics is NOT for everyone! This book is not for people: -Who doesn’t want to impress their girl with science -Who are not curious about the universe -Who isn’t inspired to name their own science theory If you are ready to learn about quantum physics, Scroll Up And Click On The “BUY NOW” Button Now!

    This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    The many aspects of our lives that are governed by social networks make it critical to understand how they impact behavior, which network structures are likely to emerge in a society, and why we organize ourselves as we do. In Social and Economic Networks, Matthew Jackson offers a comprehensive introduction to social and economic networks, drawing on the latest findings in economics, sociology, computer science, physics, and mathematics. He provides empirical background on networks and the regularities that they exhibit, and discusses random graph-based models and strategic models of network formation. He helps readers to understand behavior in networked societies, with a detailed analysis of learning and diffusion in networks, decision making by individuals who are influenced by their social neighbors, game theory and markets on networks, and a host of related subjects. Jackson also describes the varied statistical and modeling techniques used to analyze social networks. Each chapter includes exercises to aid students in their analysis of how networks function.This book is an indispensable resource for students and researchers in economics, mathematics, physics, sociology, and business.

    One can trace its roots to the Calculus of Variations and the work of Euler and Lagrange. This natural and reasonable approach to mathematical programming covers numerical methods for finite-dimensional optimization problems. It begins with very simple ideas progressing through more complicated concepts, concentrating on methods for both unconstrained and constrained optimization.

    In How Not to Be Wrong, Jordan Ellenberg shows us how terribly limiting this view is: Math isn’t confined to abstract incidents that never occur in real life, but rather touches everything we do—the whole world is shot through with it.Math allows us to see the hidden structures underneath the messy and chaotic surface of our world. It’s a science of not being wrong, hammered out by centuries of hard work and argument. Armed with the tools of mathematics, we can see through to the true meaning of information we take for granted: How early should you get to the airport? What does “public opinion” really represent? Why do tall parents have shorter children? Who really won Florida in 2000? And how likely are you, really, to develop cancer?How Not to Be Wrong presents the surprising revelations behind all of these questions and many more, using the mathematician’s method of analyzing life and exposing the hard-won insights of the academic community to the layman—minus the jargon. Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia’s views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can’t figure out about you, and the existence of God.Ellenberg pulls from history as well as from the latest theoretical developments to provide those not trained in math with the knowledge they need. Math, as Ellenberg says, is “an atomic-powered prosthesis that you attach to your common sense, vastly multiplying its reach and strength.” With the tools of mathematics in hand, you can understand the world in a deeper, more meaningful way. How Not to Be Wrong will show you how.

    This concept is at the root of the computational worldview, which basically says that very complex systems — the world we live in — have their beginnings in simple mathematical equations. We've lately come to understand that such an algorithm is only the start of a never-ending story — the real action occurs in the unfolding consequences of the rules. The chip-in-a-box computers so popular in our time have acted as a kind of microscope, letting us see into the secret machinery of the world. In Lifebox, Rucker uses whimsical drawings, fables, and humor to demonstrate that everything is a computation — that thoughts, computations, and physical processes are all the same. Rucker discusses the linguistic and computational advances that make this kind of "digital philosophy" possible, and explains how, like every great new principle, the computational world view contains the seeds of a next step.

    “The result is a veritable pi

    The focus is on algorithms and hence the book is well suited for students in computer science and engineering. Motivation is provided from the application areas: all solutions and techniques from computational geometry are related to particular applications in robotics, graphics, CAD/CAM, and geographic information systems. For students this motivation will be especially welcome. Modern insights in computational geometry are used to provide solutions that are both efficient and easy to understand and implement. All the basic techniques and topics from computational geometry, as well as several more advanced topics, are covered. The book is largely self-contained and can be used for self-study by anyone with a basic background in algorithms. In the second edition, besides revisions to the first edition, a number of new exercises have been added.

    Starting from the basics of probability, the authors develop the theory of statistical inference using techniques, definitions, and concepts that are statistical and are natural extensions and consequences of previous concepts. This book can be used for readers who have a solid mathematics background. It can also be used in a way that stresses the more practical uses of statistical theory, being more concerned with understanding basic statistical concepts and deriving reasonable statistical procedures for a variety of situations, and less concerned with formal optimality investigations.

    To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Provies basic theoretical discussions of the principles of biopharmaceutics and pharmacokinetics, along with illustrative examples and practice problems and solutions to help the student gain skill in practical problem solving.

    We start counting our fingers and toes and end up balancing checkbooks and calculating risk. So powerful is the appeal of numbers that many people ascribe to them a mystical significance. Other numbers go beyond the supernatural, working to explain our universe and how it behaves. In Cosmic Numbers, mathematics professor James D. Stein traces the discovery, evolution, and interrelationships of the numbers that define our world. Everyone knows about the speed of light and absolute zero, but numbers like Boltzmann’s constant and the Chandrasekhar limit are not as well known, and they do far more than one might imagine: They tell us how this world began and what the future holds. Much more than a gee-whiz collection of facts and figures, Cosmic Numbers illuminates why particular numbers are so important—both to the scientist and to the rest of us.