You’ve seen all the goofy ideas and fads that don’t work. Now it’s time to get back to basics with a simple, time-tested, step-by-step plan that anyone can follow. Arm yourself with the truth about getting out of debt. Knowledge is power and you’re going to get it. Find out: • Whether your mortgage is good or bad (the answer may surprise you!) • About the Power Pay Off Plan (and how Sam saved 20 grand) • The secrets to successfully get out of debt • Where to find the money you need for debt free living • How much money you ought to be putting towards paying off debt • The truth about debt consolidation (including pitfalls to avoid) • How to use insurance to protect yourself from the unexpected • What to do next, once you’ve started on the road to wealth Your student loans, mortgage, car loans, and credit card balances can all be gone with the straightforward strategies you’ll learn in this book. You don’t have to feel stress, shame, or embarrassment over it for one moment longer. You’re going to take control and change your life for the better. You’ll also get free access to The Debt Destroyer. This wickedly good tool will create a customized plan for you to pay off debt and ensure that more of your money stays in your pocket. You don’t have to tackle this alone, and you don’t have to be rich to pull this off. If you want debt help on a budget - with straight talk and no tricks - you’ll find everything you need right here. Debt relief can be yours. Buy this book today and get started. It’s your turn.

    Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    For more than a decade, well-known consultant and business professor Wayne Winston has been teaching corporate clients and MBA students the most effective ways to use Microsoft Excel for data analysis, modeling, and decision making. Now this award-winning educator shares the best of his classroom experience in this practical, business-focused guide. Each chapter advances your data analysis and modeling expertise using real-world examples and learn-by-doing exercises. You also get all the book’s problem-and-solution files on CD—for all the practice you need to solve complex problems and work smarter with Excel.Learn how to solve real business problems with Excel!Create best, worst, and most-likely scenarios for sales Calculate how long it would take to recoup a project’s startup costs Plan personal finances, such as computing loan terms or saving for retirement Estimate a product’s demand curve Simulate stock performance over a year Determine which product mix will yield the greatest profits Interpret the effects of price and advertising on sales Assign a dollar value to customer loyalty Manage inventory and order quantities with precision Create customer service queues with short wait times Estimate the probabilities of equipment failure Model business uncertainties Get new perspectives on data with PivotTable dynamic views Help predict quarterly revenue, outcomes of sporting events, presidential elections, and more! On the CD:Practice files for all the book’s exercises Solutions for problem sets Fully searchable eBook A Note Regarding the CD or DVDThe print version of this book ships with a CD or DVD. For those customers purchasing one of the digital formats in which this book is available, we are pleased to offer the CD/DVD content as a free download via O'Reilly Media's Digital Distribution services. To download this content, please visit O'Reilly's web site, search for the title of this book to find its catalog page, and click on the link below the cover image (Examples, Companion Content, or Practice Files). Note that while we provide as much of the media content as we are able via free download, we are sometimes limited by licensing restrictions. Please direct any questions or concerns to booktech@oreilly.com.

    Survey Methodology describes the basic principles of survey design discovered in methodological research over recent years and offers guidance for making successful decisions in the design and execution of high quality surveys. Written by six nationally recognized experts in the field, this book covers the major considerations in designing and conducting a sample survey. Topical, accessible, and succinct, this book represents the state of the science in survey methodology. Employing the "total survey error" paradigm as an organizing framework, it merges the science of surveys with state-of-the-art practices. End-of-chapter terms, references, and exercises enhance its value as a reference for practitioners and as a text for advanced students.

    Each self-contained chapter consists of three sections. The first describes the statistic, including how it is used and what information it provides. The second section reviews how it works, how to calculate the formula, the strengths and weaknesses of the technique, and the conditions needed for its use. The final section provides examples that use and interpret the statistic. A glossary of terms and symbols is also included.New features in the second edition include:an interactive CD with PowerPoint presentations and problems for each chapter including an overview of the problem's solution; new chapters on basic research concepts including sampling, definitions of different types of variables, and basic research designs and one on nonparametric statistics; more graphs and more precise descriptions of each statistic; and a discussion of confidence intervals.This brief paperback is an ideal supplement for statistics, research methods, courses that use statistics, or as a reference tool to refresh one's memory about key concepts. The actual research examples are from psychology, education, and other social and behavioral sciences.Materials formerly available with this book on CD-ROM are now available for download from our website www.psypress.com. Go to the book's page and look for the 'Download' link in the right-hand column.

    Along the way we’ll learn how selection bias can explain why your boss doesn’t know he sucks (even when everyone else does); how to use Bayes’ Theorem to decide if your partner is cheating on you; and why Mark Zuckerberg should never be used as an example for anything. See the world in a whole new light, and make better decisions and judgements without ever going near a t-test. Think. Think Statistically.

    More and more leading businesses today use estimation questions in interviews to test applicants' abilities to think on their feet. Guesstimation enables anyone with basic math and science skills to estimate virtually anything--quickly--using plausible assumptions and elementary arithmetic.Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam present an eclectic array of estimation problems that range from devilishly simple to quite sophisticated and from serious real-world concerns to downright silly ones. How long would it take a running faucet to fill the inverted dome of the Capitol? What is the total length of all the pickles consumed in the US in one year? What are the relative merits of internal-combustion and electric cars, of coal and nuclear energy? The problems are marvelously diverse, yet the skills to solve them are the same. The authors show how easy it is to derive useful ballpark estimates by breaking complex problems into simpler, more manageable ones--and how there can be many paths to the right answer. The book is written in a question-and-answer format with lots of hints along the way. It includes a handy appendix summarizing the few formulas and basic science concepts needed, and its small size and French-fold design make it conveniently portable. Illustrated with humorous pen-and-ink sketches, Guesstimation will delight popular-math enthusiasts and is ideal for the classroom.

    Baseball Prospectus 2015 brings together an elite group of analysts to provide the definitive look at the upcoming season in critical essays and commentary on the thirty teams, their managers, and more than sixty players and prospects from each team.Baseball Prospectus 2015contains critical essays on each of the thirty teams and player comments for some sixty players for each of those teams; projects each player's stats for the coming season using the groundbreaking PECOTA projection system, which has been called "perhaps the game's most accurate projection model" (Sports Illustrated). Now in its twentieth edition, this New York Times bestselling insider's guide from Baseball Prospectus, America's leading provider of statistical analysis for baseball, remains hands down the most authoritative and entertaining book of its kind.

    Theory and practice in the design of data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception. Aesthetics and data graphical displays. This is the second edition of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Recently published, this new edition provides excellent color reproductions of the many graphics of William Playfair, adds color to other images, and includes all the changes and corrections accumulated during 17 printings of the first edition.

     Two hot topics team up in The Baseball Economist, and the result is a refreshing, clear- eyed survey of a playing field that has changed radically in recent years. Utilizing the latest economic methods and statistical analysis, writer, economics professor, and popular blogger J. C. Bradbury dissects burning baseball topics with his original Sabernomic perspective, such as: • Did steroids have nothing to do with the recent home run records? Incredibly, Bradbury's research, reviewed by Stanford economists, reveals steroids had little statistical significance. • Is the big-city versus small-city competition really lopsided? Bradbury shows why the Marlins and Indians are likely to dominate big-city franchises in the coming years. • Which players are ridiculously overvalued? Bradbury lists all players by team with their revenue value to the team listed in dollars—including a dishonor role of those players with negative values. • Is major league baseball a monopoly that can't govern itself? Bradbury sets out what rules the owners really need to play by, and what the players' union should be doing. • Does it help to lobby for balls and strikes? How would Babe Ruth perform in today's game? And who killed all the left-handed catchers, anyway? The Baseball Economist knows. Providing far more than a mere collection of numbers, Bradbury shines the light of his economic thinking on baseball, exposing the power of tradeoffs, competition, and incentives. Statistics alone aren't enough anymore. Fans, fantasy buffs, and players, as well as coaches at all levels who want to grasp what is really happening on the field today and in the coming years, will use and enjoy Bradbury's brilliant new understanding of the national pastime.

    By the mid-1990s the old school grizzled traders had been replaced by a new breed of quantitative analysts, applying mathematics to the "art" of trading and making of it a science. A similar phenomenon is happening in poker. The grizzled "road gamblers" are being replaced by a new generation of players who have challenged many of the assumptions that underlie traditional approaches to the game. One of the most important features of this new approach is a reliance on quantitative analysis and the application of mathematics to the game. This book provides an introduction to quantitative techniques as applied to poker and to a branch of mathematics that is particularly applicable to poker, game theory, in a manner that makes seemingly difficult topics accessible to players without a strong mathematical background.

    

    But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

    . ." and "The data bear this out. . . ." But the field of statistics is not just about data. Statistics is the entire process involved in gathering evidence to answer questions about the world, in cases where that evidence happens to be numerical data. Statistics For Dummies is for everyone who wants to sort through and evaluate the incredible amount of statistical information that comes to them on a daily basis. (You know the stuff: charts, graphs, tables, as well as headlines that talk about the results of the latest poll, survey, experiment, or other scientific study.) This book arms you with the ability to decipher and make important decisions about statistical results, being ever aware of the ways in which people can mislead you with statistics. Get the inside scoop on number-crunching nuances, plus insight into how you canDetermine the odds Calculate a standard score Find the margin of error Recognize the impact of polls Establish criteria for a good survey Make informed decisions about experiments This down-to-earth reference is chock-full of real examples from real sources that are relevant to your everyday life: from the latest medical breakthroughs, crime studies, and population trends to surveys on Internet dating, cell phone use, and the worst cars of the millennium. Statistics For Dummies departs from traditional statistics texts, references, supplement books, and study guides in the following ways:Practical and intuitive explanations of statistical concepts, ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations. Clear and concise step-by-step procedures that intuitively explain how to work through statistics problems. Upfront and honest answers to your questions like, "What does this really mean?" and "When and how I will ever use this?" Chances are, Statistics For Dummies will be your No. 1 resource for discovering how numerical data figures into your corner of the universe.

    This text is highly regarded because of its engaging and understandable introduction to statistics. The author's commitment to providing student-friendly guidance through the material and giving students opportunities to apply their newly learned skills in a real-world context has made Elementary Statistics the #1 best-seller in the market.