Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Theoretical, yet applied. Statistics for Business and Economics, Eleventh Edition, gives you the best of both worlds. Using a rich array of applications from a variety of industries, McClave/Sincich/Benson clearly demonstrates how to use statistics effectively in a business environment.The book focuses on developing statistical thinking so the reader can better assess the credibility and value of inferences made from data. As consumers and future producers of statistical inferences, readers are introduced to a wide variety of data collection and analysis techniques to help them evaluate data and make informed business decisions. As with previous editions, this revision offers an abundance of applications with many new and updated exercises that draw on real business situations and recent economic events. The authors assume a background of basic algebra.

    The authors help students learn key sociological concepts through real research examples related to the dynamic interplay of race, class, gender, and other social variables.

    But what is a “good” shot? Are all good shots created equally? And how might one identify players who are more or less likely to make and prevent those shots in the first place? The concept of basketball “analytics,” for lack of a better term, has been lauded, derided, and misunderstood. The incorporation of more data into NBA decision-making has been credited—or blamed—for everything from the death of the traditional center to the proliferation of three-point shooting to the alleged abandonment of the area of the court known as the midrange. What is beyond doubt is that understanding its methods has never been more important to watching and appreciating the NBA. In The Midrange Theory, Seth Partnow, NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, explains how numbers have affected the modern NBA game, and how those numbers seek not to “solve” the game of basketball but instead urge us toward thinking about it in new ways.The relative value of Russell Westbrook’s triple-doublesWhy some players succeed in the playoffs while others don’tHow NBA teams think about constructing their rosters through the draft and free agencyThe difficulty in measuring defensive achievementThe fallacy of the “quick two”From shot selection to evaluating prospects to considering aesthetics and ethics while analyzing the box scores, Partnow deftly explores where the NBA is now, how it got here, and where it might be going next.

    eGrade Plus offers an integrated suite of teaching and learning resources, including an online version of Black's Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, in one easy-to-use Web site. Organized around the essential activities you perform in class, eGrade Plus helps you: Create class presentation using a wealth of Wiley-provided resources. you may easily adapt, customize, and add to his content to meet the needs of your course. Automate the assigning and grading of homework or quizzes by using Wiley-provided question banks, or by writing your won. Student results will be automatically graded and recorded in your gradebook. Track your students' progress. An instructor's gradebook allows you to an analyze individual and overall class results to determine each student's progress and level of understanding. Administer your course. eGrade Plus can easily be integrated with another course management system, gradebook, or other resources you are using in your class. Provide students with problem-solving support. eGrade Plus can link homework problems to the relevant section of the online text, providing context-sensitive help. Best of all, instructors can arrange to have eGrade Plus packaged FREE with new copies of Business Statistics for Contemporary Decision Making, Fourth Edition Update, All instructors have to do is adopt the eGrade Plus version of this book and activate their eGrade Plus course.

    It's compelling, it's straightforward, and it can change your life. Zombie Economics is for anyone in the midst of financial uncertainty, a place where carelessness and timidity will cost you. From the creeping spread of unpaid bills to the lumbering advance of creditors, Zombie Economics confronts the biggest threats to your personal economy, takes aim, and then takes them down. Specific chapters include: A Basement Full of Ammo Saving yourself by saving money They'll Eat the Fat Ones First Using fitness as a financial asset Shooting Dad in the Head Ending your relationships with the financially infected With simple, easy-to-use techniques for identifying-and eliminating-your financial weak spots, Zombie Economics turns victims into survivors. Watch a Video"

    This book develops statistical thinking over rote drill and practice. The Nature of Statistics; Organizing Data; Descriptive Measures; Probability Concepts; Discrete Random Variables; The Normal Distribution; The Sampling Distribution of the Sample Menu; Confidence Intervals for One Population Mean; Hypothesis Tests for One Population Mean; Inferences for Two Population Means; Inferences for Population Standard Deviations; Inferences for Population Proportions; Chi-Square Procedures; Descriptive Methods in Regression and Correlation; Inferential Methods in Regression and Correlation; Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) For all readers interested in Introductory Statistics.

    Progressive Insurance tracks real-time customer driving patterns and uses that information to offer rates truly commensurate with individual safety. Google accurately predicts local flu outbreaks based upon thousands of user search queries. Amazon provides remarkably insightful, relevant, and timely product recommendations to its hundreds of millions of customers. Quantcast lets companies target precise audiences and key demographics throughout the Web. NASA runs contests via gamification site TopCoder, awarding prizes to those with the most innovative and cost-effective solutions to its problems. Explorys offers penetrating and previously unknown insights into healthcare behavior.How do these organizations and municipalities do it? Technology is certainly a big part, but in each case the answer lies deeper than that. Individuals at these organizations have realized that they don't have to be Nate Silver to reap massive benefits from today's new and emerging types of data. And each of these organizations has embraced Big Data, allowing them to make astute and otherwise impossible observations, actions, and predictions.It's time to start thinking big.In Too Big to Ignore, recognized technology expert and award-winning author Phil Simon explores an unassailably important trend: Big Data, the massive amounts, new types, and multifaceted sources of information streaming at us faster than ever. Never before have we seen data with the volume, velocity, and variety of today. Big Data is no temporary blip of fad. In fact, it is only going to intensify in the coming years, and its ramifications for the future of business are impossible to overstate.Too Big to Ignore explains why Big Data is a big deal. Simon provides commonsense, jargon-free advice for people and organizations looking to understand and leverage Big Data. Rife with case studies, examples, analysis, and quotes from real-world Big Data practitioners, the book is required reading for chief executives, company owners, industry leaders, and business professionals.

    At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics.The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.

    We’ve comea long way since then. With this book, Drs. Romero and Balch liftthe veil from many of these once-opaque concepts in high-techfinance. We can all benefit from learning how the cooperationbetween wetware and software creates fitter models. This bookdoes a fantastic job describing how the latest advances in financialmodeling and data science help today’s portfolio managerssolve these greater riddles. —Michael Himmel, ManagingPartner, Essex Asset ManagementI applaud Phil Romero’s willingness to write about the hedgefund world, an industry that is very private, often flamboyant,and easily misunderstood. As with every sector of the investmentlandscape, the hedge fund industry varies dramaticallyfrom quantitative “black box” technology, to fundamental researchand old-fashioned stock picking. This book helps investorsdistinguish between these diverse opposites and understandtheir place in the new evolving world of finance. —Mick Elfers,Founder and Chief Investment Strategist, Irvington Capital

    Predictive Analytics For Dummies explores the power of predictive analytics and how you can use it to make valuable predictions for your business, or in fields such as advertising, fraud detection, politics, and others. This practical book does not bog you down with loads of mathematical or scientific theory, but instead helps you quickly see how to use the right algorithms and tools to collect and analyze data and apply it to make predictions.Topics include using structured and unstructured data, building models, creating a predictive analysis roadmap, setting realistic goals, budgeting, and much more.Shows readers how to use Big Data and data mining to discover patterns and make predictions for tech-savvy businesses Helps readers see how to shepherd predictive analytics projects through their companies Explains just enough of the science and math, but also focuses on practical issues such as protecting project budgets, making good presentations, and more Covers nuts-and-bolts topics including predictive analytics basics, using structured and unstructured data, data mining, and algorithms and techniques for analyzing data Also covers clustering, association, and statistical models; creating a predictive analytics roadmap; and applying predictions to the web, marketing, finance, health care, and elsewhere Propose, produce, and protect predictive analytics projects through your company with Predictive Analytics For Dummies.

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    

    of Wisconsin-Madison) and Wichern (Texas A&M U.) present the newest edition of this college text on the statistical methods for describing and analyzing multivariate data, designed for students who have taken two or more statistics courses. The fifth edition includes the addition of seve

    R is one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages available, and enables the user to apply a wide variety of statistical methods ranging from simple regression to generalized linear modelling. Statistics: An Introduction using R is a clear and concise introductory textbook to statistical analysis using this powerful and free software, and follows on from the success of the author's previous best-selling title Statistical Computing. * Features step-by-step instructions that assume no mathematics, statistics or programming background, helping the non-statistician to fully understand the methodology. * Uses a series of realistic examples, developing step-wise from the simplest cases, with the emphasis on checking the assumptions (e.g. constancy of variance and normality of errors) and the adequacy of the model chosen to fit the data. * The emphasis throughout is on estimation of effect sizes and confidence intervals, rather than on hypothesis testing. * Covers the full range of statistical techniques likely to be need to analyse the data from research projects, including elementary material like t-tests and chi-squared tests, intermediate methods like regression and analysis of variance, and more advanced techniques like generalized linear modelling. * Includes numerous worked examples and exercises within each chapter. * Accompanied by a website featuring worked examples, data sets, exercises and solutions: http: //www.imperial.ac.uk/bio/research/crawl... Statistics: An Introduction using R is the first text to offer such a concise introduction to a broad array of statistical methods, at a level that is elementary enough to appeal to a broad range of disciplines. It is primarily aimed at undergraduate students in medicine, engineering, economics and biology - but will also appeal to postgraduates who have not previously covered this area, or wish to switch to using R.