Beginning at the intermediate level and ending at a level appropriate for the graduate student, this is a core text for upper level undergraduate and taught graduate microeconomics courses.

    Now, two science professors give us the tools to dismantle misinformation and think clearly in a world of fake news and bad data.It's increasingly difficult to know what's true. Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news abound. Our media environment has become hyperpartisan. Science is conducted by press release. Startup culture elevates bullshit to high art. We are fairly well equipped to spot the sort of old-school bullshit that is based in fancy rhetoric and weasel words, but most of us don't feel qualified to challenge the avalanche of new-school bullshit presented in the language of math, science, or statistics. In Calling Bullshit, Professors Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West give us a set of powerful tools to cut through the most intimidating data.You don't need a lot of technical expertise to call out problems with data. Are the numbers or results too good or too dramatic to be true? Is the claim comparing like with like? Is it confirming your personal bias? Drawing on a deep well of expertise in statistics and computational biology, Bergstrom and West exuberantly unpack examples of selection bias and muddled data visualization, distinguish between correlation and causation, and examine the susceptibility of science to modern bullshit.We have always needed people who call bullshit when necessary, whether within a circle of friends, a community of scholars, or the citizenry of a nation. Now that bullshit has evolved, we need to relearn the art of skepticism.

    It was a time of economic miracles, an era when steady jobs were easy to find and families could see their living standards improving year after year. And then, around 1973, the good times vanished. The world economy slumped badly, then settled into the slow, erratic growth that had been the norm before the war. The result was an era of anxiety, uncertainty, and political extremism that we are still grappling with today. In An Extraordinary Time, acclaimed economic historian Marc Levinson describes how the end of the postwar boom reverberated throughout the global economy, bringing energy shortages, financial crises, soaring unemployment, and a gnawing sense of insecurity. Politicians, suddenly unable to deliver the prosperity of years past, railed haplessly against currency speculators, oil sheikhs, and other forces they could not control. From Sweden to Southern California, citizens grew suspicious of their newly ineffective governments and rebelled against the high taxes needed to support social welfare programs enacted when coffers were flush. Almost everywhere, the pendulum swung to the right, bringing politicians like Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan to power. But their promise that deregulation, privatization, lower tax rates, and smaller government would restore economic security and robust growth proved unfounded. Although the guiding hand of the state could no longer deliver the steady economic performance the public had come to expect, free-market policies were equally unable to do so. The golden age would not come back again. A sweeping reappraisal of the last sixty years of world history, An Extraordinary Time forces us to come to terms with how little control we actually have over the economy.

    

    Fully updated with the 2009 practice guidelines, this book will take you through every step of a project - from planning and establishing roles to closing and reviewing - offering practical and easy-to-understand advice on using PRINCE2. It also shows how to use the method when approaching the key concerns of project management, including setting up effective controls, managing project risk, managing quality and controlling change. PRINCE2 allows you to divide your project into manageable chunks, so you can make realistic plans and know when resources will be needed. PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition provides you with a comprehensive guide to its systems, procedures and language so you can run efficient and successful projects.PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition includes: Part I: How PRINCE Can Help You - Chapter 1: So What's a Project Method and Why Do I Need to Use One? - Chapter 2: Outlining the Structure of PRINCE2 - Chapter 3: Getting Real Power from PRINCE2Part II: Working Through Your Project - Chapter 4: Checking the Idea Before You Start - Chapter 5: Planning the Whole Project: Initiation - Chapter 6: Preparing for a Stage in the Project - Chapter 7: Controlling a Stage - Chapter 8: Building the Deliverables - the Work of the Teams - Chapter 9: Finishing the Project - Chapter 10: Running Effective Project BoardsPart III: Help with PRINCE Project Management - Chapter 11: Producing and Updating the Business Case - Chapter 12: Deciding Roles and Responsibilities - Chapter 13: Managing Project Quality - Chapter 14: Planning the Project, Stages, and Work Packages - Chapter 15: Managing Project Risk - Chapter 16: Controlling Change and Controlling Versions - Chapter 17: Monitoring Progress and Setting Up Effective ControlsPart IV: The Part of Tens - Chapter 18: Ten Ways to Make PRINCE Work Well - Chapter 19: Ten Tips for a Good Business Case - Chapter 20: Ten Things for Successful Project Assurance Part V: Appendices - Appendix A: Looking into PRINCE Qualifications - Appendix B: Glossary of the Main PRINCE2 Terms

    

    This volume provides a comprehensible guide to his work by a wide range of experts who are actively engaged in new work on Wittgenstein. The essays, which are both expository and original, address central themes in his philosophy of mind, language, logic, and mathematics and clarify the connections among the different stages in the development of his work.

    Trump reveals the secrets of his success in this candid and unprecedented book of business wisdom and advice. Over the years, everyone has urged Trump to write on this subject, but it wasn’t until NBC and executive producer Mark Burnett asked him to star in The Apprentice that he realized just how hungry people are to learn how great personal wealth is created and first-class businesses are run. Thousands applied to be Trump’s apprentice, and millions have been watching the program, making it the highest rated debut of the season.In Trump: How To Get Rich, Trump tells all–about the lessons learned from The Apprentice, his real estate empire, his position as head of the 20,000-member Trump Organization, and his most important role, as a father who has successfully taught his children the value of money and hard work.With his characteristic brass and smarts, Trump offers insights on how to• invest wisely• impress the boss and get a raise• manage a business efficiently• hire, motivate, and fire employees• negotiate anything• maintain the quality of your brand• think big and live largePlus, The Donald tells all on the art of the hair!With his luxury buildings, award-winning golf courses, high-stakes casinos, and glamorous beauty pageants, Donald J. Trump is one of a kind in American business. Every day, he lives the American dream. Now he shows you how it’s done, in this rollicking, inspirational, and illuminating behind-the-scenes story of invaluable lessons and rich rewards.From the Hardcover edition.

    It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importance of big data by noting that observations are not all equally important: the amount of information in a data set is often proportional to only the square root of the number of observations, not the absolute number. The third idea is likelihood, the calibration of inferences with the use of probability. Intercomparison is the principle that statistical comparisons do not need to be made with respect to an external standard. The fifth pillar is regression, both a paradox (tall parents on average produce shorter children; tall children on average have shorter parents) and the basis of inference, including Bayesian inference and causal reasoning. The sixth concept captures the importance of experimental design for example, by recognizing the gains to be had from a combinatorial approach with rigorous randomization. The seventh idea is the residual the notion that a complicated phenomenon can be simplified by subtracting the effect of known causes, leaving a residual phenomenon that can be explained more easily.The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom presents an original, unified account of statistical science that will fascinate the interested layperson and engage the professional statistician."

    While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the storm” maps shown on TV every hurricane season.Many of us are ill equipped to interpret the visuals that politicians, journalists, advertisers, and even employers present each day, enabling bad actors to easily manipulate visuals to promote their own agendas. Public conversations are increasingly driven by numbers, and to make sense of them we must be able to decode and use visual information. By examining contemporary examples ranging from election-result infographics to global GDP maps and box-office record charts, How Charts Lie teaches us how to do just that.

    Suskind moves from the frenzied trading floors of lower Manhattan to the power corridors inside the Beltway and introduces a larger than life cast of politicians and advisors, titans of high finance, reformers, lobbyists, and others who faced a crisis unlike anything they had ever imagined. Based on hundreds of hours of interviews and exhaustive research, filled with piercing insight and startling disclosures, Confidence Men goes beyond the headlines and previous accounts, bringing into focus the unprecedented struggle between the nation's two capitals; New York and Washington, one of private gain, the other of public purpose;that continues to divide and roil America.

    We don't do a chemical analysis on food we eat.Trust and cooperation are the first problems we had to solve before we could become a social species. In the 21st century, they have become the most important problems we need to solve — again. Our global society has become so large and complex that our traditional trust mechanisms no longer work.Bruce Schneier, world-renowned for his level-headed thinking on security and technology, tackles this complex subject head-on. Society can't function without trust, and yet must function even when people are untrustworthy.Liars and Outliers reaches across academic disciplines to develop an understanding of trust, cooperation, and social stability. From the subtle social cues we use to recognize trustworthy people to the laws that punish the noncompliant, from the way our brains reward our honesty to the bank vaults that keep out the dishonest, keeping people cooperative is a delicate balance of rewards and punishments. It's a series of evolutionary tricks, social pressures, legal mechanisms, and physical barriers.In the absence of personal relationships, we have no choice but to substitute security for trust, compliance for trustworthiness. This progression has enabled society to scale to unprecedented complexity, but has also permitted massive global failures.At the same time, too much cooperation is bad. Without some level of rule-breaking, innovation and social progress become impossible. Society stagnates.Today's problems require new thinking, and Liars and Outliers provides that. It is essential that we learn to think clearly about trust. Our future depends on it.

    Now, America finds itself cash poor, and to a great extent power follows money. In The End of Influence, renowned economic analysts Stephen S. Cohen and J. Bradford DeLong explore the grave consequences this loss will have for America's place in the world. America, Cohen and DeLong argue, will no longer be the world's hyperpower. It will no longer wield soft cultural power or dictate a monolithic foreign policy. More damaging, though, is the blow to the world's ability to innovate economically, financially, and politically. Cohen and DeLong also explore American's complicated relationship with China, the misunderstood role of sovereign wealth funds, and the return of state-led capitalism. An essential read for anyone interested in how global economics and finance interact with national policy, The End of Influence explains the far-reaching and potentially long-lasting but little-noted consequences of our great fiscal crisis.

    Already used by people and companies around the world, many forecast that Bitcoin could radically transform the global economy. The value of a bitcoin has soared from less than a dollar in 2011 to well over $1000 in 2013, with many spikes and crashes along the way. The rise in value has brought Bitcoin into the public eye, but the cryptocurrency still confuses many people. Bitcoin for the Befuddled covers everything you need to know about Bitcoin—what it is, how it works, and how to acquire, store, and use bitcoins safely and securely. You'll also learn about Bitcoin's history, its complex cryptography, and its potential impact on trade and commerce. The book includes a humorous, full-color comic explaining Bitcoin concepts, plus a glossary of terms for easy reference.

    But how does virality actually work? In The Rules of Contagion, epidemiologist Adam Kucharski explores topics including gun violence, online manipulation, and, of course, outbreaks of disease to show how much we get wrong about contagion, and how astonishing the real science is.Why did the president retweet a Mussolini quote as his own? Why do financial bubbles take off so quickly? And why are disinformation campaigns so effective? By uncovering the crucial factors driving outbreaks, we can see how things really spread -- and what we can do about it.Whether you are an author seeking an audience, a defender of truth, or simply someone interested in human social behavior, The Rules of Contagion is an essential guide to modern life.