Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Burger teaches at Wiliams College; Starbird at The University of Texas at Austin. Here, they “reveal the hidden powers of deep understanding (earth), failure (fire), questions (air), the flow of ideas (water), and the quintessential element of change that brings all four elements together. By mastering and applying these practical and proven strategies, readers develop better thinking habits and learn how to create their own successes.”Brilliant people aren't a special breed--they just use their minds differently. By using the straightforward and thought-provoking techniques in "The 5 Elements of Effective Thinking," you will regularly find imaginative solutions to difficult challenges, and you will discover new ways of looking at your world and yourself--revealing previously hidden opportunities.The book offers real-life stories, explicit action items, and concrete methods that allow you to attain a deeper understanding of any issue, exploit the power of failure as a step toward success, develop a habit of creating probing questions, see the world of ideas as an ever-flowing stream of thought, and embrace the uplifting reality that we are all capable of change. No matter who you are, the practical mind-sets introduced in the book will empower you to realize any goal in a more creative, intelligent, and effective manner. Filled with engaging examples that unlock truths about thinking in every walk of life, "The 5 Elements of Effective Thinking" is written for all who want to reach their fullest potential--including students, parents, teachers, businesspeople, professionals, athletes, artists, leaders, and lifelong learners.Whenever you are stuck, need a new idea, or want to learn and grow, "The 5 Elements of Effective Thinking" will inspire and guide you on your way.

    From exercises to help you put your worries into perspective, to relaxation methods for when anxiety attacks, Dr Aaron Balick shows you how to feel more at ease and sustain a sense of calm

    A look, a tap of the paw, a pose, a movement of the ears: their entire bodies express their emotions and feelings. Get to know your cat better through 50 detailed poses. They will help you understand your cat, but also to establish basic rules in order to live in harmony with him.

    Whenever you find yourself worrying, procrastinating, or questioning your potential -- FEAR is getting the best of you.Specifically, there are seven common fears you must learn to defeat if you want to live a happy and successful life:1) The fear of what other people think.2) The fear of change.3) The fear of making the wrong decision.4) The fear of missing out on something better.5) The fear of not being good enough.6) The fear of failure being permanent.7) The fear of being "due" for a setback.Every major worry and self-destructive thought is rooted in one of these seven fears.In this inspirational fable, Mickey McGavin is a pro boxer struggling to overcome the seven fears that are holding him back--in the ring and in life. With the help of a former world champion who becomes his trainer and mentor, McGavin learns he must defeat the fears in his mind before he can defeat his opponents in the ring.Boxing is the metaphor for life in this story, but the techniques used for defeating fear are universal.No matter your goal, FEAR is your ultimate opponent and this book will show you how to defeat the fears that hold you back from living the life you were born to live.Read this life-changing book and discover why victory -- in sports, in business, and in life -- always favors the fearless.

    

    

    In this fun and informative guide, her first for puppies, she teaches you how to navigate each stage of a puppy's growth, from the first weeks through adolescence. You'll learn:- puppy-proofing your home- toilet training- building leash-walking and play skills- preventing nipping and excessive barking- caring for your puppy's health- and more!

    Charles McCoy explains how to break the cycle and move into a creative mode that enables the solving of complex problems.

    “Photography Demystified—Your Guide to Understanding Photography, Gaining Creative Control and Taking Amazing Photographs!” has been designed to resolve your frustrations and photography difficulties. This book will give you the tools, education and practical applications needed to understand how to take great pictures! PLUS, a section entirely dedicated to assignments has been included! Video tutorials are also available at no charge! http://mckaylive.com/bonus/Along with my wife Ally, I own McKay Photography Academy. Leading hundreds of photographic tours around the world, I have taught over twelve thousand people just like you how to excel in photography. Having earned my Master of Photography and Photographic Craftsmen degrees from Professional Photographers of America, the leading photography organization in the world, I have been a full time professional photographer for over twenty nine years and am passionate about teaching others how to achieve great results in their photography. My motivation is to see that everyone can enjoy photography and take the frustration out of the process!Beginning photographers, camera buffs, photo enthusiast, and many others who struggle with understanding photography concepts, exposure, and their camera manuals have already experienced my proven methods of teaching beginner’s photography. This book will do the same for you!•Terry L from Santa Cruz, CA says: “Taking someone off automatic settings to manual settings can be daunting at times. Fortunately, I have had the experience of learning from David McKay. David has taken me further into the world of photography than I could have ever imagined.”•Keith W from Austin, TX writes: “David is one of those rare individuals that combine passion, extensive knowledge and a laid-back style in teaching photography. What else can I say; it is refreshing to learn from someone this talented.” •Steve of Steve Scurich Photography in Santa Barbara,CA states: “The ability to take decades of complex photography knowledge and boil it down into concepts that are clear, understandable and easy to implement, is David’s gift to the world. Personally, I am forever grateful for the inspiration and encouragement he’s given me.”•Denise Mann from San Antonio, TX says: “David McKay is passionate about photography and equally as passionate about teaching it to those eager to learn.”•Jeff G from Sacramento CA says: “David McKay is a great photographer—not every photographer can be a great educator, David is! David is able to take complicated topics and break them down to something easy to digest and practical to implement—you are inspired to go out and use what you just learned!”•Kara from San Jose, CA writes: “You can’t help but to feel his love for photography and his passion for teaching.

    Using Cohen's trademark style-with tips, statistics, quotes, and stories from parents and students, as well as expert advice-this guide tackles the most important topics on parents''minds, including:• What parents should never say or do when dropping their child off on campus• Staying connected (but not too connected) to your child• When to visit, how often to visit, what to expect when visiting• Helping your child make good choices & supporting the wrong ones• What every parent must know about safety issues

    Dennett has engaged questions about science and the workings of the mind. His answers have combined rigorous argument with strong empirical grounding. And a lot of fun.Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking offers seventy-seven of Dennett’s most successful "imagination-extenders and focus-holders" meant to guide you through some of life’s most treacherous subject matter: evolution, meaning, mind, and free will. With patience and wit, Dennett deftly deploys his thinking tools to gain traction on these thorny issues while offering readers insight into how and why each tool was built.Alongside well-known favorites like Occam’s Razor and reductio ad absurdum lie thrilling descriptions of Dennett’s own creations: Trapped in the Robot Control Room, Beware of the Prime Mammal, and The Wandering Two-Bitser. Ranging across disciplines as diverse as psychology, biology, computer science, and physics, Dennett’s tools embrace in equal measure light-heartedness and accessibility as they welcome uninitiated and seasoned readers alike. As always, his goal remains to teach you how to "think reliably and even gracefully about really hard questions."A sweeping work of intellectual seriousness that’s also studded with impish delights, Intuition Pumps offers intrepid thinkers—in all walks of life—delicious opportunities to explore their pet ideas with new powers.

    Whether it's a job change, shifting deadlines, a micromanaging executive, a toxic co-worker, a high-pressure project, or an intense negotiation with a vendor, the administrative profession is not for the faint of heart.If you're looking to maintain the status quo and be "just an assistant," this book is not for you. But, if you want the confidence and ability to conquer the challenges that most try to avoid, then you're in the right place.The Leader Assistant outlines four pillars—embody the characteristics, employ the tactics, engage in relationships, and exercise self-care—that will help you rediscover your passion for the profession and become a confident, future-proof, game-changing Leader Assistant. If you neglect even one pillar, you'll head for burnout, stagnation, and anonymity. You are meant for so much more. Are you ready to be the Leader Assistant the world needs?

    It’s a good thing to strive for more kindness and compassion. But wishing that humanity becomes entirely inoffensive is pointless because there’s always something that offends someone. Fortunately, there’s another path... The ancient Stoics observed that some things are in our control and others are not. We cannot control the foul language of people, opinions that oppose our own, and that there will always be a bunch of trolls that intend to trigger us for fun. What happens in our environment isn’t up to us. But what is up to us, is the way we handle it. Many choose to spend heaps of time and energy on the mere words of others, which withholds them to pursue meaningful goals and to be at peace in an unruly universe. What a waste! Unoffendable explores philosophical ideas backed by personal anecdotes to figure out how we can thrive in a world full of jerks, bullies, and people we simply don’t agree with.

    Through stories, insights and practical exercises, readers learn how to make that shift in their lives so that they can have the better, happier life they deserve.