It shows how causality has grown from a nebulous concept into a mathematical theory with significant applications in the fields of statistics, artificial intelligence, philosophy, cognitive science, and the health and social sciences. Pearl presents a unified account of the probabilistic, manipulative, counterfactual and structural approaches to causation, and devises simple mathematical tools for analyzing the relationships between causal connections, statistical associations, actions and observations. The book will open the way for including causal analysis in the standard curriculum of statistics, artifical intelligence, business, epidemiology, social science and economics. Students in these areas will find natural models, simple identification procedures, and precise mathematical definitions of causal concepts that traditional texts have tended to evade or make unduly complicated. This book will be of interest to professionals and students in a wide variety of fields. Anyone who wishes to elucidate meaningful relationships from data, predict effects of actions and policies, assess explanations of reported events, or form theories of causal understanding and causal speech will find this book stimulating and invaluable. Professor of Computer Science at the UCLA, Judea Pearl is the winner of the 2008 Benjamin Franklin Award in Computers and Cognitive Science.

    In this book, one of the world's preeminent philosophers takes issue with an idea that has found an all-too-prominent place in popular culture and philosophical thought: the idea that while factual claims can be rationally established or refuted, claims about value are wholly subjective, not capable of being rationally argued for or against. Although it is on occasion important and useful to distinguish between factual claims and value judgments, the distinction becomes, Hilary Putnam argues, positively harmful when identified with a dichotomy between the objective and the purely subjective.Putnam explores the arguments that led so much of the analytic philosophy of language, metaphysics, and epistemology to become openly hostile to the idea that talk of value and human flourishing can be right or wrong, rational or irrational; and by which, following philosophy, social sciences such as economics have fallen victim to the bankrupt metaphysics of Logical Positivism. Tracing the problem back to Hume's conception of a matter of fact as well as to Kant's distinction between analytic and synthetic judgments, Putnam identifies a path forward in the work of Amartya Sen. Lively, concise, and wise, his book prepares the way for a renewed mutual fruition of philosophy and the social sciences.

    The long, lavish, and utterly unpredictable sentences that Schiff has assembled contort as much to discover what can’t be contained as what can.     This is a book of extremes relentlessly contemporary in scope. And like the eighty-blade sportsman’s knife also described here, Revolver keeps opening and reopening to the daunting possibilities of transformation—“Splayed it is a bouquet of all the ways a point mutates.”from “Silverware by J. A. Henckels”Let me beas streamlined as my knife when I say this.As cold as my three-pronged fork thatcools the meat even as it steadies it.A pettiness in me was honedin this cutlers’ town, later bombed,in which Adolf Eichmann, who was born therealongside my wedding pattern, could hearthe constant sharpening of kniveslike some children hear the corn in their hometownstalking to them through the wind.The horizon is just the score they breathe throughlike a box of chickensbreathing through a slit.

    Rick Telander, an award-winning sports writer and author, proves more than up to the task by curating this truly exceptional collection. The only shared traits among all these diverse styles, voices, and stories are the extraordinarily high caliber of writing, and the pure passion they tap into that can only come from sports.

    We cannot choose to avoid philosophy, we can only choose whether we understand it or not. Stefan Molyneux, host of Freedomain Radio – the largest and most popular philosophy show in the world, with over 600 million views and downloads – takes you on a spectacular journey through the most foundational philosophical questions of the ages, clearing up and clarifying the most thorny problems posed by philosophers throughout history: -How do we know what is real? -How do we know what is true? -How do we know what is right? -How do we know what is good? -How do we know we even have a choice? -How do we convince others? These are all questions that we – as individuals and societies – wrestle with every day. These questions have challenged, motivated and plagued mankind for thousands of years. “Essential Philosophy” answers these questions with rigourous, illuminating and entertaining logic, reasoning from deep first principles to spectacular final conclusions. There is no need for confusion, there is no need for despair, there is no need for fear – pick up this book now, absorb the true power of philosophy, and live a rational moral life to the fullest. And then, give “Essential Philosophy” to others, so that the world may one day live in reason and peace.

    What is the meaning of life? What was Hitler's religion? What's the deal with the Flying Spaghetti Monster? And what was Mother Teresa's dark secret? This book is highly recommended for everyone curious about America's most misunderstood minority, as well as for those who wish to better understand their atheist friends, neighbors or coworkers.

    There are many contradictory beliefs about God that claim to be the truth. But since truth never contradicts itself, who really has the truth? Utilizing objective evidence like a detective does in an investigation, the facts point to the one belief that can be proven beyond a reasonable doubt. One truth that applies to everyone if they believe it or not. Follow the evidence and see for yourself.Setting feelings and what others believe aside for a moment learn why objective evidence is the best way to find truth in any investigation, including the truth about God. See for yourself exactly why Christianity is the most reasonable belief available based on the facts and why it applies to everyone, everywhere even if they do not believe it. Learn the two things we all encounter daily that the Bible states is absolute proof of God's existence and leave every person without excuse, even those who have never read the Bible. Learn why trying to be a good person is not good enough.Weigh the objective evidence for yourself and make a reasonable decision about God and then pass the evidence on to others so they can discover the truth. Everyone deserves the opportunity to examine the evidence for themselves.Perfect for the seeker and the believer who want to eliminate doubts and have a reasonable assurance that their faith is actually placed in the truth.If you are a believer you have an obligation to share the truth. Let this book show your friends and family the sound foundation your belief rests upon. It's not about religion, it's about truth.

    

    But she drugged Adam to sleep with her for the last time, wishing that he would remember her after she was gone.And her only condition for the divorce was that Adam must design a wedding dress for her.It was a promise he made to her when they were kids.But Adam mistook Agnes the little girl he met at that time.What's more, the whole Cloude family helped Agnes to hide the truth.Thalia was depressed. She wanted to leave and die alone later. But then she found out that she was pregnant, with Adam's baby...

    Unlike other logic puzzle books, every puzzle includes statistics - such as the average completion time, the record completion time, and the percentage of people to complete the puzzle - to bring out the competitor in each puzzler and better inform them on how easy or difficult each puzzle is.?Features 200 grid-based logic puzzles?Includes puzzles statistics for added excitement?Ideal for kids and adults

    It helps to make walking for fitness part of your lifestyle and not just a fly-by-night fad. Done the right way walking a minimum of 10,000 steps a day should become a cornerstone of a fit and healthy lifestyle and this book gives a plan to make that happen.Here are just a few things that are covered in this awesome little fitness ebook:- The Origin of the 10,000 Steps Habit- How Far Is 10,000 Steps?- 13 Health Benefits of Step Walking- 4 Walking Items that can help you Get Started- Creating a Walking Plan that REALLY Works- 16 Shortcuts Hacks "Pad" Your Daily Step Count- Make your Own Warm Up and Cool Down Routines- 6 Obstacles That can Derail a Walking Habit (and Their Solutions)- Power Walking: How to Turn 10,000 Steps into a Dynamic Activity- The Importance of Injury Prevention

    The Magic Monastery differs from its predecessors in that it contains not only traditional tales--mostly unpublished--but also stories specially written by Shah to complete the book as 'a course in non-linear thinking.'

    No one is better qualified to talk about Springsteen than the man himself, and he’s often as articulate and provocative in interviews and speeches as he is emotive onstage and in recordings. While many rock artists seem to suffer through interviews, Springsteen has welcomed them as an opportunity to speak openly, thoughtfully, and in great detail about his music and life. This volume starts with his humble beginnings in 1973 as a struggling artist and follows him up to the present, as Springsteen has achieved almost unimaginable wealth and worldwide fame. Included are feature interviews with well-known media figures, including Charlie Rose, Ted Koppel, Brian Williams, Nick Hornby, and Ed Norton. Fans will also discover hidden gems from small and international outlets, in addition to radio and TV interviews that have not previously appeared in print. This collection is a must-have for any Springsteen fan.

    Forced to question everything that he has ever believed, should he simply follow the path that has been laid out for him, or will pursuing the truth help him to find what has always been missing? As the tangled web of lies unfolds and uncertainty takes over, a startling chain of events are set in motion that will see Aaron make the journey of a lifetime to discover not only who he really is, but ultimately who he wants to be.Awarded a B.R.A.G. Medallion and shortlisted for the inaugural Quagga Prize for Literary Fiction, if you love engrossing books that will take you on a journey, buy Finding Arun now.

    That is, it is a piece of bad logic. Just as it is a good idea to avoid eating bad food, it is also a rather good idea to avoid bad reasoning. Unfortunately, bad reasoning is all too common—it pours out of the television and infests the web like an army of venomous spiders. Perhaps even worse than the fallacies inflicted from the outside are self-inflicted fallacies. These can lead people to make poor decisions about matters great and small.Fortunately, there is a defense against bad reasoning, namely knowledge. This concise book provides the reader with definitions and examples of seventy-six common fallacies—the knowledge a person needs to defend herself in a world awash in fallacies.In addition to combining the content of my 42 Fallacies and 30 More Fallacies, this book features some revisions as well as a new section on common formal fallacies. The focus is on providing the reader with definitions and examples of these common fallacies rather than being a handbook on winning arguments or a text on general logic.The book presents the following 73 informal fallacies:Accent, Fallacy ofAccident, Fallacy ofAd HominemAd Hominem Tu QuoqueAmphiboly, Fallacy ofAnecdotal Evidence, Fallacy OfAppeal to the Consequences of a BeliefAppeal to Authority, FallaciousAppeal to BeliefAppeal to Common PracticeAppeal to EmotionAppeal to EnvyAppeal to FearAppeal to FlatteryAppeal to Group IdentityAppeal to GuiltAppeal to NoveltyAppeal to PityAppeal to PopularityAppeal to RidiculeAppeal to SpiteAppeal to TraditionAppeal to SilenceAppeal to VanityArgumentum ad HitlerumBegging the QuestionBiased GeneralizationBurden of ProofComplex QuestionComposition, Fallacy ofConfusing Cause and EffectConfusing Explanations and ExcusesCircumstantial Ad HominemCum Hoc, Ergo Propter HocDivision, Fallacy ofEquivocation, Fallacy ofFallacious ExampleFallacy FallacyFalse DilemmaGambler’s FallacyGenetic FallacyGuilt by AssociationHasty GeneralizationHistorian’s FallacyIllicit ConversionIgnoring a Common CauseIncomplete EvidenceMiddle GroundMisleading VividnessMoving the Goal PostsOversimplified CauseOverconfident Inference from Unknown StatisticsPathetic FallacyPeer PressurePersonal AttackPoisoning the WellPositive Ad HominemPost HocProving X, Concluding YPsychologist's fallacyQuestionable CauseRationalizationRed HerringReification, Fallacy ofRelativist FallacySlippery SlopeSpecial PleadingSpotlightStraw ManTexas Sharpshooter FallacyTwo Wrongs Make a RightVictim FallacyWeak AnalogyThe book contains the following three formal (deductive) fallacies:Affirming the ConsequentDenying the AntecedentUndistributed Middle