Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    He received his Ph.D. at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Kyungmook Lee is Professor of Organizational Behavior and Human Resource Management at Seoul National University Business School where he currently serves as Senior Associate Dean for academic affairs. He received his Ph.D. at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Traditional sales and marketing methods have failed to keep pace with the way modern, internet-savvy consumers purchase goods and services. Modern messaging apps, which allow for real-time conversations and instant feedback, have transformed the way we interact in our personal and professional lives, yet most businesses still rely on 20th century technology to communicate with 21st century customers. Online forms, email inquiries, and follow-up sales calls don't provide the immediacy that modern consumers expect. Conversational marketing and sales are part of a new methodology that's centered around having real-time, one-on-one conversations with customers via chatbots and messaging, enabling powerful lead generation and optimal sales conversion. In this book, conversational marketing pioneer David Cancel shares his knowledge and experience to give marketers and sales professionals the innovative tools and proven techniques they need to carve out success in an increasingly dynamic business environment.Effective customer communication is crucial to any business, particularly in sales and marketing. By allowing your business to communicate with customers in real time--when it's most convenient for them--conversational marketing improves the customer experience, generates more leads, and helps you convert more leads into customers.Merge inbound and outbound tactics into a more productive dialogIntegrate conversational marketing techniques into your existing sales and marketing workflowGenerate higher-quality leads and shorten sales cyclesImprove the customer experience with real-time communicationFace-to-face meetings, phone calls, and email exchanges remain important to customer relations, but adding a layer of immediate, individual conversation drives the customer experience--and sales--sky-high. With a multi-layered approach that combines traditional methods and cutting-edge technologies, Conversational Marketing and Sales can help you maximize your business's performance and potential for years to come.

    It has saved me hours in troubleshooting complicated operations problems." -Trotter Cashion, cofounder, Mashion DevOps can help developers, QAs, and admins work together to solve Linux server problems far more rapidly, significantly improving IT performance, availability, and efficiency. To gain these benefits, however, team members need common troubleshooting skills and practices. In DevOps Troubleshooting: Linux Server Best Practices , award-winning Linux expert Kyle Rankin brings together all the standardized, repeatable techniques your team needs to stop finger-pointing, collaborate effectively, and quickly solve virtually any Linux server problem. Rankin walks you through using DevOps techniques to troubleshoot everything from boot failures and corrupt disks to lost email and downed websites. You'll master indispensable skills for diagnosing high-load systems and network problems in production environments. Rankin shows how to Master DevOps' approach to troubleshooting and proven Linux server problem-solving principles Diagnose slow servers and applications by identifying CPU, RAM, and Disk I/O bottlenecks Understand healthy boots, so you can identify failure points and fix them Solve full or corrupt disk issues that prevent disk writes Track down the sources of network problems Troubleshoot DNS, email, and other network services Isolate and diagnose Apache and Nginx Web server failures and slowdowns Solve problems with MySQL and Postgres database servers and queries Identify hardware failures-even notoriously elusive intermittent failures

    This hands-on guide shows you how to get the most out of this free and powerful tool -- whether you're new to Google Analytics or have been using it for years.Google Analytics shows you how to track different market segments and analyze conversion rates, and reveals advanced techniques such as marketing-campaign tracking, a valuable feature that most people overlook. And this practical book not only provides complete code samples for web developers, it also explains the concepts behind the code to marketers, managers, and others on your team.Discover exactly how the Google Analytics system worksLearn how to configure the system to measure data most relevant to your business goalsTrack online marketing activities, including cost-per-click ads, email, and internal campaignsTrack events -- rather than page views -- on sites with features such as maps, embedded video, and widgetsConfigure Google Analytics to track enterprise data, including multiple domainsUse advanced techniques such as custom variables and CRM integration

    Ware's updated review of empirical research and interface design examples will do much to accelerate innovation and adoption of information visualization." —Ben Shneiderman, University of Maryland"Colin Ware is the perfect person to write this book, with a long history of prominent contributions to the visual interaction with machines and to information visualization directly. It goes a long way towards joining science to the practical design of information visualization systems." —from the foreword by Stuart Card, PARCMost designers know that yellow text presented against a blue background reads clearly and easily, but how many can explain why, and what really are the best ways to help others and ourselves clearly see key patterns in a bunch of data? When we use software, access a web site, or view graphics, our understanding is greatly enhanced or impeded by the way information is presented. By explaining in detail how we think visually, this book provides guidance on how to construct effective interactive information displays.This book combines a strictly scientific approach to human perception with a practical concern for the rules governing the effective visual presentation of information. Surveying the research of leading psychologists and neurophysiologists, author Colin Ware isolates key principles at work in vision and perception, and from them derives specific and effective visualization techniques suitable for a wide range of scenarios. Information Visualization offers practical guidelines that can be applied by anyone, and covers all facets of visual perception: color, organization, space perception, motion, and texture.* Major revision of this classic work, with a new chapter on visual thinking, new sections on face perception and flow visualization, an appendix on how to evaluate visualizations,and a greatly expanded chapter on color and color sequences. *New to this edition is the full-color treatment throughout, to better display over 400 illustrations.*From a leading researcher in the field of human perception who has brought together, in a single resource, all current scientific insight into the question of data visualization.

    With this practical book, you’ll learn techniques for extracting and transforming features—the numeric representations of raw data—into formats for machine-learning models. Each chapter guides you through a single data problem, such as how to represent text or image data. Together, these examples illustrate the main principles of feature engineering.Rather than simply teach these principles, authors Alice Zheng and Amanda Casari focus on practical application with exercises throughout the book. The closing chapter brings everything together by tackling a real-world, structured dataset with several feature-engineering techniques. Python packages including numpy, Pandas, Scikit-learn, and Matplotlib are used in code examples.

    Web Development With Clojure shows you how to apply Clojure programming fundamentals to build real-world solutions. You'll develop all the pieces of a full web application in this powerful language. If you already have some familiarity with Clojure, you'll learn how to put it to serious practical use. If you're new to the language, the book provides just enough Clojure to get down to business.You'll learn the full process of web development using Clojure while getting hands-on experience with current tools, libraries, and best practices in the language. You'll develop Clojure apps with both the Light Table and Eclipse development environments. Rather than frameworks, Clojure development builds on rich libraries. You'll acquire expertise in the popular Ring/Compojure stack, and you'll learn to use the Liberator library to quickly develop RESTful services. Plus, you'll find out how to use ClojureScript to work in one language on the client and server sides.Throughout the book, you'll develop key components of web applications, including multiple approaches to database access. You'll create a simple guestbook app and an app to serve resources to users. By the end, you will have developed a rich Picture Gallery web application from conception to packaging and deployment.This book is for anyone interested in taking the next step in web development.Q&A with Dmitri SotnikovWhy did you write Web Development with Clojure?When I started using Clojure, I found that it took a lot of work to find all the pieces needed to put together a working application. There was very little documentation available on how to organize the code, what libraries to use, or how to package the application for deployment. Having gone through the process of figuring out what works, I thought that it would be nice to make it easier for others to get started.What are the advantages of using a functional language?Over the course of my career, I have developed a great appreciation for functional programming. I find that it addresses a number of shortcomings present in the imperative paradigm. For example, in a functional language any changes to the data are created via revisions to the existing data. So they only exist in the local scope. This fact allows us to safely reason about individual parts of the program in isolation, which is critical for writing and supporting large applications.Why use Clojure specifically?Clojure is a simple and pragmatic language that is designed for real-world usage. It combines the productivity of a high-level language with the excellent performance seen in languages like C# or Java. It's also very easy to learn because it allows you to use a small number of concepts to solve a large variety of problems.If I already have a preferred web development platform, what might I get out of this book?If you're using an imperative language, you'll get to see a very different approach to writing code. Even if you're not going to use Clojure as your primary language, the concepts you'll learn will provide you with new ways to approach problems.Is the material in the book accessible to somebody who is not familiar with Clojure?Absolutely. The book targets developers who are already familiar with the basics of web development and are interested in learning Clojure in this context. The book introduces just enough of the language to get you productive and allows you to learn by example.

    If you have read the Swift Programming Guide, and want to explore more, this book is for you.Swift is a great language for systems programming, but also lends itself for very high-level programming. We'll explore both high-level topics (for example, programming with generics and protocols), as well as low-level topics (for example, wrapping a C library and string internals).

    The technology is powerful but it is still a tool—one used by people to apply human ingenuity, imagination, and problem-solving skills to see trends, patterns, anomalies, and relationships in what were once inscrutable or unmanageable issues. In their years spent working with hundreds of companies, governments, and non-profit organizations, Josh Sullivan and Angela Zutavern have consulted with a wide range of leaders developing new capabilities that lead to new business models, the creation of breakthrough products and services, and potential solutions to vexing global problems. Their stories include Ford developing not just smarter cars but also smarter roads and cities; an oceanographer obtaining a holistic map of the oceans, with ramifications for both the fishing industry but for humanity at large; and health care entrepreneurs developing new products that significantly reduce heart attack fatalities.These are but a few examples of leaders tapping the power of the digital world and creatively collaborating with computers. New capabilities are developed that then give birth to new business models as leaders envision and shape the future. Businesses are reaching goals that until recently seemed difficult, if not impossible, to attain. The winnings will go to organizations that take steps to deliver "impossible strategies," and The Mathematical Corporation provides leaders with the new way to think and work in this era of data science and drive the revolution.

    Bannon had long sensed that deep within America's soul lurked an explosive tension. Cambridge Analytica had the data to prove it, and in 2016 Bannon had a presidential campaign to use as his proving ground.Christopher Wylie might have seemed an unlikely figure to be at the center of such an operation. Canadian and liberal in his politics, he was only twenty-four when he got a job with a London firm that worked with the U.K. Ministry of Defense and was charged putatively with helping to build a team of data scientists to create new tools to identify and combat radical extremism online. In short order, those same military tools were turned to political purposes, and Cambridge Analytica was born. Wylie's decision to become a whistleblower prompted the largest data crime investigation in history. His story is both exposé and dire warning about a sudden problem born of very new and powerful capabilities. It has not only exposed the profound vulnerabilities and profound carelessness in the enormous companies that drive the attention economy, it has also exposed the profound vulnerabilities of democracy itself. What happened in 2016 was just a trial run. Ruthless actors are coming for your data, and they want to control what you think.

    AdWords lets every business-from eBay PowerSellers to Fortune 500 companies-create targeted, cost-efficient advertising campaigns on the Web, and accounts for the bulk of Google's $6 billion in annual revenues This all-new guide helps advertisers get a handle on AdWords complexities and nuances, adopt AdWords best practices, and turn clicks into ka-ching! Topics covered include conducting quick and cheap market research, crafting a message that cuts through the clutter, choosing AdWords settings, bidding on keywords, setting a maximum daily spend, improving the Web page that an ad points to, testing strategies, tracking results, and using Web analytics tools Includes an exclusive offer from Google-AdWords credits equivalent to the price of the book-plus a companion Web site with up-to-the-minute AdWords tips and tricks, narrated video walkthroughs, and free trials of the author's software

    Millions of people use Google Drive and its popular word processor, Docs, every day. You too can use Drive and Docs to perform the following tasks: * Write letters and reports* Enter data into Sheets, Google's free online spreadsheet program* Give presentations using Slides* Collaborate online with classmates and colleagues on important documents* Convert documents to different file formats * Print documents, drawings, and spreadsheets* Export PDFs * Make pie charts, bar charts, and simple tables* Publish documents and spreadsheets onlineThere are a lot of features, including some unfamiliar ones for people who are used to Microsoft Office. "Google Drive & Docs In 30 Minutes" cuts through the clutter, using screenshots, step-by-step instructions, and plain English. After covering registration, file creation and other basics, the book zeroes in on the most important time-saving tips and productivity tools. Highlights include:* Converting files between Microsoft Office and Google Drive formats.* Best practices for organizing files in Google Drive.* What to expect with collaboration in Google Drive.* Using Google Drive on phones and tablets: What works, and what doesn't.* Accessing older versions of files.* How to publish your documents to the Web for colleagues or members of the public to view.* Sorting and filtering data in Google Spreadsheets (with examples).* Using Web Forms to gather data.* Google Slides: Is it a suitable alternative to Microsoft PowerPoint or Apple Keynote?* Working with offline files.* Downloading third-party apps."Google Drive And Docs In 30 Minutes" is an In 30 Minutes™ guide. Other books in the series include "Dropbox In 30 Minutes", "Google Blogger For Small Businesses In 30 Minutes", and "Excel Basics In 30 Minutes".

    But, as Mandi Walls explains in this Velocity report, DevOps is really about changing company culture—replacing traditional development and operations silos with collaborative teams of people from both camps. The DevOps movement has produced some efficient teams turning out better products faster. The tough part is initiating the change. This report outlines strategies for managers looking to go beyond tools to build a DevOps culture among their technical staff. Topics include: Documenting reasons for changing to DevOps before you commit Defining meaningful and achievable goals Finding a technical leader to be an evangelist, tools and process expert, and shepherd Starting with a non-critical but substantial pilot project Facilitating open communication among developers, QA engineers, marketers, and other professionals Realigning your team’s responsibilities and incentives Learning when to mediate disagreements and conflicts Download this free report and learn how to the DevOps approach can help you create a supportive team environment built on communication, respect, and trust. Mandi Walls is a Senior Consultant with Opscode.