But as risk expert Gerd Gigerenzer shows, the surprising truth is that in the real world, we often get better results by using simple rules and considering less information. In Risk Savvy, Gigerenzer reveals that most of us, including doctors, lawyers, financial advisers, and elected officials, misunderstand statistics much more often than we think, leaving us not only misinformed, but vulnerable to exploitation. Yet there is hope. Anyone can learn to make better decisions for their health, finances, family, and business without needing to consult an expert or a super computer, and Gigerenzer shows us how.Risk Savvy is an insightful and easy-to-understand remedy to our collective information overload and an essential guide to making smart, confident decisions in the face of uncertainty.

    How does professional baseball evaluate hitters? Is a singles hitter like Wade Boggs more valuable than a power hitter like David Ortiz? Should NFL teams pass or run more often on first downs? Could professional basketball have used statistics to expose the crooked referee Tim Donaghy? Does money buy performance in professional sports?In Mathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. Mathletics blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples.After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player--and much, much more.

    If you have not yet bought the original copy, make sure to purchase it before buying this unofficial summary from aBookaDay. SPECIAL OFFER $2.99 (Regularly priced: $3.99) OVERVIEW This review of The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine by Michael Lewis provides a chapter by chapter detailed summary followed by an analysis and critique of the strengths and weaknesses of the book. The main theme explored in the book is how corruption and greed in Wall Street caused the crash of the subprime mortgage market in 2008. Despite being completely preventable, the big firms in Wall Street chose to ignore the oncoming fall in favor of making money. Michael Lewis introduces characters—men outside of the Wall Street machine—who foresaw the crisis and, through several different techniques, were able to predict how and when the market would fall. Lewis portrays these men—Steve Eisman, Mike Burry, Charlie Ledley, and Jamie Mai—as the underdogs, who were able to understand and act upon the obvious weaknesses in the subprime market. Lewis’s overall point is to demonstrate how the Wall Street firms were manipulating the market. They used loans to cash in on the desperation of middle-to-lower class Americans, and then ultimately relied on the government to bail them out when the loans were defaulted. Using anecdotes and interviews from the men who were involved first-hand, the author makes the case that Wall Street, and how they conducted business in regards to the subprime mortgage market, is truly corrupt beyond repair, and the men he profiles in this novel were trying to make the best out of a bad situation. By having the words from the sources themselves, this demonstrates Lewis’s search for the truth behind what actually happened. Ultimately, we as an audience can not be sure if the intentions of these underdogs were truly good, but Lewis does an admirable job presenting as many sides to the story as possible. The central thesis of the work is that the subprime mortgage crisis was caused by Wall Street firms pushing fraudulent loans upon middle-to-lower class Americans that they would essentially not be able to afford. Several people outside of Wall Street were able to predict a crash in the market when these loans would be defaulted on, and bought insurance to bet against the market (essentially, buying short). Over a time period from roughly 2005-2008, the market crashed and huge banks and firms lost billions of dollars, filed for bankruptcy, or were bailed out by the government. These men, the characters of Lewis’s novel, were able to bet against the loans and made huge amounts of money, but it was not quite an easy journey. Michael Lewis is a non-fiction author and financial journalist. He has written several novels—notably Liar’s Poker in 1989, Moneyball in 2003, and The Blind Side in 2006. Born in New Orleans, he attended Princeton University, receiving a BA degree in Art History. After attending London School of Economics and receiving his masters there, he was hired by Salomon Brothers where he experienced much about what he wrote about in Liar’s Poker. He is currently married, with three children and lives in Berkeley, California. SUMMARY PROLOGUE: POLTERGEIST Michael Lewis begins his tale of the remarkable—and strange—men who predicted the immense fall of the housing market by immediately exposing himself as the exact opposite type of person from them. He explains to the reader that he has no background in accounting, business, or money managing.

    When hearing those words just a couple of years back, people used to say: It’s a scam, financial bubble IThere is no point in investing, the price is too low INo country will ever recognize cryptocurrency IIt’s an obvious pyramid scheme IIt’s a sort of amusement for nerds IIt's not serious, it will collapse in a couple of years. Until recently, cryptocurrency had been viewed as a sort of amusement for a handful of the chosen who bought and sold something and believed that a new currency would make a hit one day! You surely were also among those people who did not take Bitcoin and cryptocurrency seriously, but the current events gag even the biggest skeptics. Current Bitcoin price is 6,644$* The price of the most popular cryptocurrency repeatedly breaks all the unthinkable records. Capitalization is about $120 billion World recognition The world's largest economies – India and Japan – recognized Bitcoin as the official currency. The US authorities recognized cryptocurrency as the asset. And this is just the beginning. Mining on an industrial scale The cryptocurrency market is extremely fast-changing, and it is almost impossible to monitor the situation and make the right decisions on your own. Most people have no proper experience, time and money for that. My book gives basic yet quite extensive information for those people who do not chase a rainbow but want to build a long-term profitable business in one of the cryptocurrency areas: from mining to investing. So, this book is not about: Illegal ways of making money Praising cryptocurrency and urging you to invest in it to the last penny Fraud techniques and making a fast buck Boring and pointless theory Ways to earn millions without investments and risks This book will help you get to learn the following: Which way of making money in cryptocurrency market suits you best. Where should you start if you have just $500. What information about cryptocurrency the experts withhold (Take the rose-colored glasses off!). How to elaborate a personal strategy, set up your own cryptocurrency business and earn your first $3,000-10,000 as early as 2018. I can also guarantee that you: Puzzle out the main present-day currency trend even if you are clueless about economics, finance and technology. Understand whether you really want to invest in cryptocurrency (perhaps, this type of business doesn’t suit you at all and you will save your time) Get to learn how to check the risks and not to invest in the first available currency Having considered my experience, protect yourself from possible failures and pouring money down the drain which will inevitably happen if you go it blind.

    The realistic content of its examples and exercises, the clarity and brevity of its presentation, and the soundness of its pedagogical approach have received the highest remarks from both students and instructors. Now this bestseller is available in a new 6th edition.

    With it you can prime yourself with the key concepts of statistics before getting involved in the associated calculations. Using words and diagrams instead of figures, formulae and equations, Derek Rowntree makes statistics accessible to those who are non-mathematicians. And just to get you into the spirit of things. Rowntree has included questions in his argument; answer them as you go and you will be able to tell how far you have mastered the subject.

    

    It requires, in short, an understanding of probability. In this Very Short Introduction, John Haigh introduces the ideas of probability--and the different philosophical approaches to probability--and gives a brief account of the history of development of probability theory, from Galileo and Pascal to Bayes, Laplace, Poisson, and Markov. He describes the basic probability distributions and discusses a wide range of applications in science, economics, and a variety of other contexts such as games and betting. He concludes with an intriguing discussion of coincidences and some curious paradoxes.

    It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

    That's why you need to learn to think and trade like an institution. In this book you will learn: • How to work with Price Action • Price Action strategies that you can immediately put to use • How Volume Profile works • My favorite Volume Profile strategies • How to find your own trading style and what are the best trading instruments to trade • How to manage trading around macroeconomic news • How to do your market analysis from A to Z • How to manage your positions • How to do a proper money management • How to deal with trading psychology • How to do a proper backtest and how to get started with trading your backtested strategies • What are the most common trading mistakes and how to avoid them • The exact ways and rules I apply to my own trading You will learn all this in a simple, poignant way along with many examples and pictures. Book has 195 pages.

    In The End of Theory, Richard Bookstaber discusses why the human condition and the radical uncertainty of our world renders the standard economic model--and the theory behind it--useless for dealing with financial crises. What model should replace it? None. At least not any version we've been using for the past two hundred years. Instead, Bookstaber argues for a new approach called agent-based economics, one that takes as a starting point the fact that we are humans, not the optimizing automatons that standard economics assumes we are.Bookstaber's groundbreaking paradigm promises to do a far better job at preventing crises and managing those that break out. As he explains, our varied memories and imaginations color our economic behavior in unexpected hues. Agent-based modeling embraces these nuances by avoiding the mechanistic, unrealistic structure of our current economic approach. Bookstaber tackles issues such as radical uncertainty, when circumstances take place beyond our anticipation, and emergence, when innocent, everyday interactions combine to create sudden chaos. Starting with the realization that future crises cannot be predicted by the past, he proposes an approach that recognizes the human narrative while addressing market realities.Sweeping aside the historic failure of twentieth-century economics, The End of Theory offers a novel and innovative perspective, along with a more realistic and human framework, to help prevent today's financial system from blowing up again.

    Gonick’s The Cartoon Guide to Calculus is a refreshingly humorous, remarkably thorough guide to general calculus that, like his earlier Cartoon Guide to Physics and Cartoon History of the Modern World, will prove a boon to students, educators, and eager learners everywhere.

    Told through the eyes of a fictional insider, this engaging story provides a detailed look at the hedge fund business in the late 1990s and through the first decade of the twenty-first century.A Tale From the Hedge Fund World chronicles the life of a poor boy who ends up amassing more wealth than he ever thought possible. From studying Wall Street charts while sitting on the sidelines of football practice to realizing how so much money can be made in a short period of time, this book provides a bird's eye view of the inner workings of Wall Street and what it takes to make it there.Puts the word of hedge funds in perspective and reveals the competitive and lucrative nature of this field Other titles by Biggs: Hedgehogging and Wealth, War & WisdomAlso describes the bursting of the mortgage bubble and the great financial crisis that followed No one knows more about the hedge fund world of the past twenty years than Barton Biggs. His new fable offers an entertaining look at this field and those who aspire to excel within it.

    What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.This sixtieth anniversary edition includes not only the original text but also an introduction by Harold Kuhn, an afterword by Ariel Rubinstein, and reviews and articles on the book that appeared at the time of its original publication in the New York Times, tthe American Economic Review, and a variety of other publications. Together, these writings provide readers a matchless opportunity to more fully appreciate a work whose influence will yet resound for generations to come.

    While such visualizations can better inform us, they can also deceive by displaying incomplete or inaccurate data, suggesting misleading patterns—or simply misinform us by being poorly designed, such as the confusing “eye of the storm” maps shown on TV every hurricane season.Many of us are ill equipped to interpret the visuals that politicians, journalists, advertisers, and even employers present each day, enabling bad actors to easily manipulate visuals to promote their own agendas. Public conversations are increasingly driven by numbers, and to make sense of them we must be able to decode and use visual information. By examining contemporary examples ranging from election-result infographics to global GDP maps and box-office record charts, How Charts Lie teaches us how to do just that.