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Market Mind Games: Profiting from the New Psychology of Risk, Uncertainty, and the Convergence of Trading with Investing
Denise Shull - 2011
Read this first and you will learn that the surest path to success will be to start with yourself; solve that conundrum and challenges like understanding how you do and should react to markets will come to be solvable."--Marvin Zonis, Professor Emeritus, Booth School of Business, The University of Chicago"When it comes to fast-moving global financial markets, professional investors strive to evaluate complex economic conditions from data analysis, economic reasoning, and professional judgment. This is what is taught in business schools. Denise Shull demonstrates how investment decision making is also determined by unconscious emotions and perceptions. "Market Mind Games" is a fascinating book that proposes a new and unexpected hypothesis about the factors that drive financial decision-making."--A.G. Malliaris, Professor of Economics and Finance, Loyola University Chicago"Denise Shull wants us to get in touch with our feelings, not to beat our bare chests and utter primordial screams. Far from it--her techniques are focused on making more money."--"Financial Times""Denise Shull's gem of a book is long overdue. . . . "Market Mind Games"] has made the ability to analyze and overcome our unconscious biases and prejudices available to everyone."--Dr. Donald T. Wargo, Department of Economics, Temple University""Market Mind Games" is iconoclastic to say the very least Pay attention to the last word in the subtitle: "risk." This book will change your perspective on how to approach and think about the markets and your life "--Michael J. Levas, Founder, Senior Managing Principal, and Director of Trading, Olympian Capital Management, LLC"Denise changes the way you look at yourself and investing. Her insights and methods are necessary to succeed in the markets, period."--Jared Levy, Portfolio Manager and author of "Your Options Handbook """Market Mind Games" offers a new school of trading psychology. Truly an important work that needs to be on the bookshelf of every serious market participant."--Mike Bellafiore, author of "One Good Trade""Masterful explanation of not only why emotionless trading is a myth, but how we can take advantage of our natural wiring to gain an edge."--Derek Hernquist, Chief Investment Officer, Integrative Capital, LLC"Shull details ways to learn how you 'feel' before you 'act' so that your buy, sell, or hold decisions become more successful."--E. Bernstein, OPUS Trading"A must-read for those who want to make their livelihood as a professional investor, trader, or algorithmic trading developer."--Larry Tabb, founder and CEO, Tabb Group"Denise Shull enlightens the reader how to effectively unlock one's psychological capital and translate that awareness into clear and concise investment decisions."--Grant Mashek, Managing Member, Palm Equity, LLC"Shull's book is not only a great read but lays out an entirely more effective approach to thinking about any decision that involves the unknown--market related or not."--Leslie Shaw, Ph.D., Behavioral Economics, and trained psychoanalystAbout the Book:What if the mystery of market crashes stems from a simple but total misunderstanding of our own minds? Could everything we think we know about ourselves--intelligence and rationality versus emotion and irrationality--be wildly off the mark? Simply put: yes.With these words, Denise Shull introduces her radical--and supremely rational-- approach to risk. Her vision stems from the indisputable fact that human beings can't make any decision at all without emotion and that emotion gets the first--and last--word when it comes to our perceptions and judgments.Shull should know. She started out managing major accounts for IBM and then chose to research unconscious emotional patterns instead of getting her MBA. Next she became a trader and trading desk manager while continuing to study biopsychology.We are all taught that sidelining our emotions is the best way to make good decisions-- Shull declares the converse: "emotions inform us." Attempting to control them actually increases the risks we take. Shull advocates treating feelings as data, and she convincingly argues that doing so eradicates the baffling question that repeats itself in our heads after making a poor investing decision: "What was I thinking?"Through a series of "lectures," Shull logically but engagingly connects emotions, beliefs, and context to our innate reaction to uncertainty and risk (yes, the two are different). In "Market Mind Games," she merges more than 20 years of studying risk decisions into a single, astoundingly effective strategy.A reasonable approach to emotion is the best and only way to win the investing game. The methods Shull details in "Market Mind Games" shake the foundation of conventional market and decision psychology. And, most important, they work.
Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies
Tim Koller - 1990
Valuation provides up-to-date insights and practical advice on how to create, manage, and measure an organization's value. Along with all-new case studies that illustrate how valuation techniques and principles are applied in real-world situations, this comprehensive guide has been updated to reflect the events of the Internet bubble and its effect on stock markets, new developments in academic finance, changes in accounting rules (both U. S. and IFRS), and an enhanced global perspective. This edition contains the solid framework that managers at all levels, investors, and students have come to trust.
Street Smarts: High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies
Laurence A. Connors - 1996
This 245 page manual is considered by many to be one of the best books written on trading futures. Twenty-five years of combined trading experience is divulged as you will learn 20 of their best strategies. Among the methods you will be taught are: * Swing Trading - The backbone of Linda's success. Not only will you learn exactly how to swing trade, you will also learn specific advanced techniques never before made public! * News - Among the strategies revealed is an intra-day news strategy they use to exploit the herd when the 8:30am economic reports are released. This strategy will be especially appreciated by bond traders and currency traders. * Pattern Recognition - You will learn some of the best short-term set-up patterns available. Larry and Linda will also teach you how they combine these patterns with other strategies to identify explosive moves. * ADX - In our opinion, ADX is one of the most powerful and misunderstood indicators available to traders. Now, for the first time, they reveal a handful of short-term trading strategies they use in conjunction with this terrific indicator. * Volatility - You will learn how to identify markets that are about to explode and how to trade these exciting situations. * Also, included are chapters on trading volatility, trading Crabel, trading the smart money index, trading gap reversals, a special chapter on professional money management, and many other trading strategies!
Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading
Larry R. Williams - 1999
With his expert guidance, you'll learn about such fundamentals as how the market moves, what are the three most dominant cycles, when to exit a trade, and how to hold on to winners until the end of your chosen time frame. Along with in-depth analysis of the most effective short-term trading strategies and details on the best theory and implementation of money management, Long-Term Secrets to Short-Term Trading features Williams's winning technical indicators, as well as his thoughts on a broad range of topics. Here is a sampling: * "A short-term trader has one objective; to catch the current trend of the market. That's it. That's all you should try to do!" * "The shorter your time frame of trading the less money you'll make." * "You will never make big money until you learn to hold on to your winners, and the longer you hold the more potential you have for profiteering. . . . It takes time to make money regardless of the activity." * "Wealth is not amassed with just good market calls. It also requires correct money management." * "I think you need to fear the market and fear yourself. . . . Without fear there is no respect, if you do not respect the markets and fear yourself you will become one more dead body on the long trail of commodity market casualties scattered across the land." Filled with invaluable insight, precise rules and formulas, and helpful advice from one of today's most respected market players, this comprehensive and practical resource will serve as the basis for, if not indeed become, your short-term trading "gospel."
Zero Hour: Turn the Greatest Political and Financial Upheaval in Modern History to Your Advantage
Harry S. Dent - 2017
Dent Jr., bestselling author of The Demographic Cliff and The Sale of a Lifetime, predicted the populist wave that has driven the Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and other recent shocks around the world. Now he returns with the definitive guide to protect your investments and prosper in the age of the anti-globalist backlash.The turn of the 2020s will mark an extremely rare convergence of low points for multiple political, economic, and demographic cycles. The result will be a major financial crash and global upheaval that will dwarf the Great Recession of the 2000s—and maybe even the Great Depression of the 1930s. We’re facing the onset of what Dent calls “Economic Winter.” In Zero Hour, he and Andrew Pancholi (author of The Market Timing Report newsletter) explain all of these cycles, which influence everything from currency valuations to election returns, from economic growth rates in Asia to birthrates in Europe. You’ll learn, for instance: • Why the most-hyped technologies of recent years (self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain) won’t pay off until the 2030s. • Why China may be the biggest bubble in the global economy (and you’d be a fool to invest there). • Why you should invest in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, and pull out of real estate and automotive. • Why putting your faith in gold is a bad idea. Fortunately, Zero Hour includes a range of practical strategies to help you turn the upheaval ahead to your advantage, so your family can be prepared and protected.
The Poker Face of Wall Street
Aaron Brown - 2006
In both worlds, real risk means real money is made or lost in a heart beat, and neither camp is always rational with the risk it takes. As a result, business and financial professionals who want to use poker insights to improve their job performance will find this entertaining book a "must read." So will poker players searching for an edge in applying the insights of risk-takers on Wall Street.
Stock Market Investing for Beginners: Essentials to Start Investing Successfully
Tycho Press - 2013
All forms of investment share a common purpose: to provide for a better future. Stock market investing is one of the best tools you can use to build a more secure financial foundation for you and your family. However, for those of us who aren't professional stockbrokers, the process of stock market investing can seem complex and bewildering. Stock Market Investing for Beginners will arm you with the information you need to understand the basics of stock market investing, and start taking control of your financial future. Stock Marketing Investing for Beginners will take the frustration and intimidation out of stock market investing, so that you can make the investments that are right for your financial goals. Stock Market Investing for Beginners gives you the tools to start investing wisely and successfully, with: Straightforward explanation of the fundamentals of stock market investing 10 key stock marketing investing questions answered 5 strategies for picking winners Useful advice on buying, selling, owning, and diversifying Invaluable tips on building your financial portfolio through stock marketing investing The sooner you start investing, the better off you will be. Stock Market Investing for Beginners will show you how to make a small investment now, for a better tomorrow.
The Ponzi Factor: The Simple Truth About Investment Profits
Tan Liu - 2018
First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as self-evident." --Arthur SchopenhauerThe Ponzi Factor is the most comprehensive research ever compiled on the negative-sum nature of capital gains (non-dividend stocks). The book shows why, as a whole, ALL investors will lose money from buying and selling stocks.Most people don’t realize that profits from buying and selling stocks come from other investors who are also buying and selling stocks. When one investor buys low and sells high, another investor is also buying high and needs to sell for even higher. Companies like Google, Telsa, Facebook never pay their investors. Their investors’ profits are dependent on the inflow of money from new investors, which by definition, is how a Ponzi scheme works.This book is not for everyone. If you are a finance junkie who wants to rationalize why companies don’t have to pay their investors and believe a system that shuffles money between investor can magically create more money than people contribute, then this book is not for you. On the other hand, if you understand why we can’t create money by shuffling it with imaginary paper, and that investors invest because they want money, not value, then you will learn something you will never forget: The mechanics of how the stock market works and what really makes a stock price move.A stock without dividends is a Ponzi asset. It’s not how equity instruments were designed to work historically and not how ownership instruments are supposed to work logically. The Ponzi Factor is not a perspective or an opinion. It is a proof that is based on definition, logic, and it is supported by observable facts and history. This is not a story that will disappear after another market crash. It is an idea that will remain relevant for as long as the stock market exists.Lastly, to critics, the naysayer, and the finance junkies who think the imaginary value = cash. The author will award $20,000 to anyone who can show why non-dividend stocks DO NOT meet the definition of a Ponzi scheme. That’s $20,000 in cash, not value. (Details on this book's website. The Ponzi Factor. Proof by Definition.)
Dual Momentum Investing: An Innovative Strategy for Higher Returns with Lower Risk
Gary Antonacci - 2014
Morris, Chief Technical Analyst and Chairman, Investment Committee of Stadion Money Management, LLC, and author of "Investing with the Trend""Dual Momentum Investing" details the author's own momentum investing method that combines U.S. stock, world stock, and aggregate bond indices--a formula proven to dramatically increase profits while lowering risk.Antonacci reveals how momentum investors could have achieved long-run returns nearly twice as high as the stock market over the past 40 years, while avoiding or minimizing bear market losses--and he provides the information and insight investors need to achieve such success going forward. His methodology is designed to pick up on major changes in relative strength and market trend.Gary Antonacci has over 30 years experience as an investment professional focusing on under exploited investment opportunities. In 1990, he founded Portfolio Management Consultants, which advises private and institutional investors on asset allocation, portfolio optimization, and advanced momentum strategies. He writes and runs the popular blog and website optimalmomentum.com. Antonacci earned his MBA at Harvard.
The Stock Market Cash Flow: Four Pillars of Investing for Thriving in Today's Markets (Rich Dad Advisors)
Andy Tanner - 2014
The book begins by addressing many of the challenges stock market investors face today and the various ways many investors use the stock market to achieve their goals.A valuable discussion of where paper assets fit (and do not fit) in the context of Rich Dad principles and its place among the other assets classes such as real estate business and commodities.The bulk of the book educates investors on "Andy's 4 pillars of stock market income" and effectively simplifies the four concepts to help investors begin to harness their power.The book concludes with ideas for an individual action plan suited to the goals of the reader
Value Investing
James Montier - 2009
In short order, Montier shreds the 'efficient market hypothesis', elucidates the pertinence of behavioral finance, and explains the crucial difference between investment process and investment outcomes. Montier makes his arguments with clear insight and spirited good humor, and then backs them up with cold hard facts. Buy this book for yourself, and for anyone you know who cares about their capital!" --Seth Klarman, President, The Baupost Group LLC The seductive elegance of classical finance theory is powerful, yet value investing requires that we reject both the precepts of modern portfolio theory (MPT) and pretty much all of its tools and techniques.In this important new book, the highly respected and controversial value investor and behavioural analyst, James Montier explains how value investing is the only tried and tested method of delivering sustainable long-term returns.James shows you why everything you learnt at business school is wrong; how to think properly about valuation and risk; how to avoid the dangers of growth investing; how to be a contrarian; how to short stocks; how to avoid value traps; how to hedge ignorance using cheap insurance. Crucially he also gives real time examples of the principles outlined in the context of the 2008/09 financial crisis.In this book James shares his tried and tested techniques and provides the latest and most cutting edge tools you will need to deploy the value approach successfully.It provides you with the tools to start thinking in a different fashion about the way in which you invest, introducing the ways of over-riding the emotional distractions that will bedevil the pursuit of a value approach and ultimately think and act differently from the herd.
The Complete Guide to Option Selling: How Selling Options Can Lead to Stellar Returns in Bull and Bear Markets
James Cordier - 2004
The strategy of buy-and-hold has been replaced by buy-and-hope. Trying to grow your assets means worrying about how the next geopolitical crisis or government announcement will affect your portfolio. In an age of stunted economics and uncertain interest rates, attempting to guess market direction can seem futile.The good news is, you don't have to anymore. There is a better way to invest. It's time to borrow a page from the pros and radically change your entire philosophy to building a solid, high-yielding portfolio.The Complete Guide to Option Selling takes you through the process step by step. Updated to help you draw steady, high pro ts in an age of skittish markets, this classic text covers the ins and outs of:The Fundamentals of Option Selling Why writing options works so well, what kind of investor writes options, and how futures options could be the missing piece to your puzzleOption-Selling Strategy and Risk Management Choosing the right options to sell, the most powerful spread strategies, the mechanics of selling, and protecting yourself from downside risk like a proMarket Analysis and Writing Options How to find the best markets to take premium, the secret of seasonal trends, and tips on building your premium ladder You don't need a fancy Greek calculator to succeed in writing options. All you need is a little knowledge, a lot of common sense, and The Complete Guide to Option Selling.PRAISE FOR THE COMPLETE GUIDE TO OPTION SELLING: "A must-read. Cordier and Gross have covered all the bases in this book about the (arguably) best option strategy--writing options." -- LAWRENCE MCMILLAN, bestselling author of Options as a Strategic Investment and editor of The Option Strategist Newsletter and Daily Volume Alerts"The Complete Guide to Option Selling offers investors a truly unique, practical, and valuable perspective into another dimension of option strategy. A very cool book and interesting angle!" -- JARED A. LEVY, risk manager and author of Your Options Handbook and The Bloomberg Visual Guide to Options"James and Michael not only have an excellent ability to analyze market fundamentals, but more importantly, to design the appropriate option strategy to take advantage of their market outlook." -- DANIEL P. COLLINS, editor-in-Chief, Futures Magazine"The Complete Guide to Option Selling is an excellent reminder that selling options is less stressful and more forgiving than traditional direction trading strategies. This book has what it takes and is valuable to both novice and experienced traders." -- JACK WALKER, author of Volatility Trading Digest"Cordier and Gross comprehensively and convincingly demonstrate how options selling strategies can function not only as a facile income-producing technique but also as a performance-based investment strategy all on their own." -- GIL MORALES, Managing director of MoKa investors, LLC, and coauthor of the bestselling books Trade Like an O'Neil Disciple, How to Make Money Selling Stocks Short, and In the Cockpit with the O'Neil Disciples
Foundations of Economic Prosperity
Daniel W. Drezner - 2013
Professor Drezner takes you behind the headlines and into the debates to dispel common myths about prosperity and get at deeper truths. By taking a broad view of economics that includes psychology, sociology, political science, and history, his lectures lead you to fundamental insights about how the modern world works and a deeper understanding of the functioning of the U.S., European, Chinese, and other major economies, as well as an appreciation for the special problems faced by underdeveloped nations. You'll examine dozens of case histories that illustrate what works and doesn't work in the drive to increase economic growth. You'll also learn about intriguing examples of prosperity won or lost, including the Dutch tulip mania in 1637, the era of globalization that started in the 1850s and lasting through World War I, and Ukraine's economic missteps after the breakup of the Soviet Union. As a start on your own road to greater prosperity, take this step to invest in an unparalleled explanation of the prerequisites to achieve it.
The Warren Buffett Way: Investment Strategies of the World's Greatest Investor
Robert G. Hagstrom - 1997
Buy it and read it." -Kenneth L. Fisher Forbes The runaway bestseller-updated with new material included for the first time! "The Warren Buffett Way outlines his career and presents examples of how his investment techniques and methods evolved and the important individuals in that process. It also details the key investment decisions that produced his unmatched record of performance." -from the Foreword by Peter S. Lynch Bestselling author, One Up on Wall Street and Beating the Street ." . . an extraordinarily useful account of the methods of an investor held by many to be the world's greatest." -The Wall Street Journal "Robert Hagstrom presents an in-depth examination of Warren Buffett's strategies, and the 'how and why' behind his selection of each of the major securities that have contributed to his remarkable record of success. His 'homespun' wisdom and philosophy are also part of this comprehensive, interesting, and readable book." -John C. Bogle Chairman, The Vanguard Group "It's first rate. Buffett gets a lot of attention for what he preaches, but nobody has described what he practices better than Hagstrom. Here is the lowdown on every major stock he ever bought and why he bought it. Fascinating. You could even try this at home." -John Rothchild Financial columnist Time magazine
The Motley Fool Investment Guide: How The Fool Beats Wall Street's Wise Men And How You Can Too
David Gardner - 1996
Once you learn to tune out the hype and focus on meaningful factors, you can beat the Street. The Motley Fool Investment Guide, completely revised and updated with clear and witty explanations, deciphers all the new information -- from evaluating individual stocks to creating a diverse investment portfolio. David and Tom Gardner have investing ideas for you -- no matter how much time or money you have. This new edition of The Motley Fool Investment Guide is built for today's investor, sophisticate and novice alike, with updated information on: Finding high-growth stocks that will beat the market over the long termIdentifying volatile young companies that traditional valuation measures may missUsing Fool.com and the Internet to locate great sources of useful information