He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    At the core of this classic treatise is the message that sledgehammer approaches can backfire, and size alone does not guarantee wins. Strategy, positioning, planning, leadership--all play equally significant roles, making Sun Tzu's teachings perfect for small business owners and entrepreneurs entrenched in fierce competition for customers, market share, talent . . . for their very survival. The Art of War for Small Business is the first book to apply Sun Tzu's wisdom to the small business arena. Featuring inspiring examples of entrepreneurial success, the book's 12 timeless lessons reveal how to: ● Choose the right ground for your battles ● Prepare without falling prey to paralysis ● Leverage strengths while overcoming limitations ● Strike competitors' weakest points and seize every opportunity● Focus priorities and resources on conquering key challenges ● Go where the enemy is not ● Build and leverage strategic alliances Big companies may deploy overwhelming forces, but small companies can outsmart, outmaneuver, and outstrategize larger adversaries to capture crucial sectors, serve unmet needs, and emerge victorious.

    Pure mathematics, the area of Bourbaki's work, seems on the surface to be an abstract field of human study with no direct connection with the real world. In reality, however, it is closely intertwined with the general culture that surrounds it. Major developments in mathematics have often followed important trends in popular culture; developments in mathematics have acted as harbingers of change in the surrounding human culture. The seeds of change, the beginnings of the revolution that swept the Western world in the early decades of the twentieth century — both in mathematics and in other areas — were sown late in the previous century. This is the story both of Bourbaki and the world that created him in that time. It is the story of an elaborate intellectual joke — because Bourbaki, one of the foremost mathematicians of his day — never existed.

    However, these activities can be viewed as two facets of the same field, and together they have undergone substantial development over the past ten years. In particular, Bayesian methods have grown from a specialist niche to become mainstream, while graphical models have emerged as a general framework for describing and applying probabilistic models. Also, the practical applicability of Bayesian methods has been greatly enhanced through the development of a range of approximate inference algorithms such as variational Bayes and expectation propagation. Similarly, new models based on kernels have had a significant impact on both algorithms and applications. This new textbook reflects these recent developments while providing a comprehensive introduction to the fields of pattern recognition and machine learning. It is aimed at advanced undergraduates or first-year PhD students, as well as researchers and practitioners, and assumes no previous knowledge of pattern recognition or machine learning concepts. Knowledge of multivariate calculus and basic linear algebra is required, and some familiarity with probabilities would be helpful though not essential as the book includes a self-contained introduction to basic probability theory.

    An unsettling look at the Sconce family from the acclaimed true crime author of Deadly Lessons.   For sixty years, families in Southern California trusted the Sconce Family Funeral Home with their loved ones’ remains. That trust was betrayed in an extraordinary, horrifying fashion, as it was discovered that the family, seeing an opportunity, had been stealing gold fillings and harvesting the organs of the newly deceased, hiding the evidence by burning the bodies in their crematorium.   When the shocking acts came to light, a trial brought every gruesome detail to the forefront, and Ken Englade has—with even-handed, clear-eyed reporting—chronicled every chilling detail.

    Based on a National Magazine Award-winning article, this masterful biography of Hungarian-born Paul Erdos is both a vivid portrait of an eccentric genius and a layman's guide to some of this century's most startling mathematical discoveries.

    Yet unlike Einstein, with whom he formed a warm and abiding friendship, Gödel has long escaped all but the most casual scrutiny of his life.Stephen Budiansky’s Journey to the Edge of Reason is the first biography to fully draw upon Gödel’s voluminous letters and writings—including a never-before-transcribed shorthand diary of his most intimate thoughts—to explore Gödel’s profound intellectual friendships, his moving relationship with his mother, his troubled yet devoted marriage, and the debilitating bouts of paranoia that ultimately took his life. It also offers an intimate portrait of the scientific and intellectual circles in prewar Vienna, a haunting account of Gödel’s and Jewish intellectuals’ flight from Austria and Germany at the start of the Second World War, and a vivid re-creation of the early days of Princeton’s Institute for Advanced Study, where Gödel and Einstein both worked.Eloquent and insightful, Journey to the Edge of Reason is a fully realized portrait of the odd, brilliant, and tormented man who has been called the greatest logician since Aristotle, and illuminates the far-reaching implications of Gödel’s revolutionary ideas for philosophy, mathematics, artificial intelligence, and man’s place in the cosmos.

    While preparing for my journey on the Appalachian Trail (AT), I often felt lost in a sea of information, usually overturning more questions than answers. The purpose of this guide is to help cut through the confusion, condense the information and present it in a straightforward and simple way. I want to leave you feeling more confident about your upcoming escapade, rather than intimidated by the thought of planning it. My first overnight backpacking trip was thru-hiking the Appalachian Trail, so I hope my perspective can be appreciated by novice and seasoned hikers alike. Some of the topics included in this ebook are: -Physical & Mental Prep -Gear List -Picking a Pack -Backpacking Stoves -Shelter Selection -Hygiene on Trail -Financial Breakdown (of my hike) -Etiquette -Safety & Wildlife -Hiking With a Dog ...and more! Download a free sample!

    How does Jane Goodall’s relationship with her dog Rusty inform her thinking about our relationship to other species? Which time and place would Jared Diamond most prefer to live in, in light of his work on the role of chance in history? What does driving a sports car have to do with Steven Weinberg’s quest for the “theory of everything”? Physicist and journalist Stefan Klein’s intimate conversations with nineteen of the world’s best-known scientists (including three Nobel Laureates) let us listen in as they talk about their paradigm-changing work—and how it is deeply rooted in their daily lives. • Cosmologist Martin Rees on the beginning and end of the world • Evolutionary biologist Richard Dawkins on egoism and selflessness • Neuroscientist V. S. Ramachandran on consciousness • Molecular biologist Elizabeth Blackburn on aging • Philosopher Peter Singer on morality • Physician and social scientist Nicholas Christakis on human relationships • Biochemist Craig Venter on the human genome • Chemist and poet Roald Hoffmann on beauty

    The resulting interviews, set against the historical backdrop of both the club and the city, provide a vivid portrait of life at Liverpool during an era when the club's unparalleled on-pitch success often went hand in hand with a boozy social scene fraught with rows, fights, and wind-ups. Former Liverpool players John Barnes, Bruce Grobbelaar, Howard Gayle, Michael Robinson, John Wark, Kevin Sheedy, Nigel Spackman, Steve Staunton, David Hodgson, and Craig Johnston, as well as first-team coach Ronnie Moran, all candidly recollect their memories of this exciting time in Liverpool Football Club's history.

    Taking us on a journey through every fundamental field of science, as well as the history of civilization, art, moral values, and the theory of political institutions, Deutsch tracks how we form new explanations and drop bad ones, explaining the conditions under which progress—which he argues is potentially boundless—can and cannot happen. Hugely ambitious and highly original, The Beginning of Infinity explores and establishes deep connections between the laws of nature, the human condition, knowledge, and the possibility for progress.

    Bell, a leading figure in mathematics in America for half a century. Men of Mathematics accessibly explains the major mathematics, from the geometry of the Greeks through Newton's calculus and on to the laws of probability, symbolic logic, and the fourth dimension. In addition, the book goes beyond pure mathematics to present a series of engrossing biographies of the great mathematicians -- an extraordinary number of whom lived bizarre or unusual lives. Finally, Men of Mathematics is also a history of ideas, tracing the majestic development of mathematical thought from ancient times to the twentieth century. This enduring work's clear, often humorous way of dealing with complex ideas makes it an ideal book for the non-mathematician.

    This process of introspection and self-reflection is never easy. It requires the ability to understand and handle your emotions in a healthy manner, and this always takes time and patience. That is why this book, “Emotional Intelligence: Exploring the Most Powerful Intelligence Ever Discovered,” has been written just for you. This book is meant to help make the process of emotional development clearer and smoother. Our lives are filled with constant and continual situations where communication with others is necessary. Your ability to communicate effectively and successfully with others is what sets you apart from animals. However, how many of us actually take the time to think about just how important the way we communicate is? In what ways can we become better able to communicate? This would be a good time to introduce you to the concept of emotional intelligence. Emotional intelligence, or EI, is defined as the ability to recognize, control, and express your emotions in a way that enables you to handle interpersonal relationships empathetically and judiciously. Emotional intelligence is what enables you to recognize how others are feeling in a given situation, differentiate the myriad of emotions, and act accordingly. It is only through emotional intelligence that we are able to adjust our emotions as we go through life, thus reaching whatever goals we have set. Nobody can claim that they do not have emotional intelligence. The only difference is that people exhibit varying levels of EI – some are simply more emotionally intelligent than others. However, it is not something that is fixed from birth to death. There are steps and actions you can take to become more intelligent emotionally. In fact, if there is one feature of personal development that most people need to work on, it is their emotional intelligence. Research has proven that those individuals who have a higher emotional quotient, or EQ, tend to make better leaders, enjoy a better quality of personal and professional relationships, and are more mentally healthy. All you need to do to increase your emotional quotient is take the time to put into practice the tips and strategies outlined in this book. In here, you will learn how to know yourself better so that you can understand others better. You will learn how your emotional brain works, and how emotional intelligence can be improved. There are some great tools and tips described in this book, so make sure that you are ready to learn and practice them. Get ready to also learn about some of the new discoveries in the field of emotional intelligence. Scroll to the top of this page and click the " Buy Now With One-Click " Button to start your journey on EI

    Arguing from within the sensibility of devout liberal Hindus who do not believe in exclusive religious nationalism, Juluri argued that these writers had turned their crusade against Hindutva into an egregiously misplaced existential attack on popular Hinduism. Widely read and commented on by lay readers and academics, this important review essay is essential reading for who anyone who cares for both Hinduism and secularism today.

    John was a still sleepy island, this updated version provides a respite from busy Cruz Bay. The guide offers an insiders view into the quintessential St. John with its hiking trails, scrambles and gut walks. Singer, a long time island resident, provides a framework for reference with lots of fast facts and an easy to read description of places of interest, flora and fauna, amidst a well laid backdrop of St. John s rich history and island legend. --Virgin Voice, December 2006 January 2007