The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    This is a new view of mathematics, not the one we learned at school but a comprehensive guide to the patterns that recur through the universe and underlie human affairs. A Beginner's Guide to Constructing, the Universe shows you: Why cans, pizza, and manhole covers are round.Why one and two weren't considered numbers by the ancient Greeks.Why squares show up so often in goddess art and board games.What property makes the spiral the most widespread shape in nature, from embryos and hair curls to hurricanes and galaxies. How the human body shares the design of a bean plant and the solar system. How a snowflake is like Stonehenge, and a beehive like a calendar. How our ten fingers hold the secrets of both a lobster a cathedral, and much more.

    Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

    Fully updated with the 2009 practice guidelines, this book will take you through every step of a project - from planning and establishing roles to closing and reviewing - offering practical and easy-to-understand advice on using PRINCE2. It also shows how to use the method when approaching the key concerns of project management, including setting up effective controls, managing project risk, managing quality and controlling change. PRINCE2 allows you to divide your project into manageable chunks, so you can make realistic plans and know when resources will be needed. PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition provides you with a comprehensive guide to its systems, procedures and language so you can run efficient and successful projects.PRINCE2 For Dummies, 2009 Edition includes: Part I: How PRINCE Can Help You - Chapter 1: So What's a Project Method and Why Do I Need to Use One? - Chapter 2: Outlining the Structure of PRINCE2 - Chapter 3: Getting Real Power from PRINCE2Part II: Working Through Your Project - Chapter 4: Checking the Idea Before You Start - Chapter 5: Planning the Whole Project: Initiation - Chapter 6: Preparing for a Stage in the Project - Chapter 7: Controlling a Stage - Chapter 8: Building the Deliverables - the Work of the Teams - Chapter 9: Finishing the Project - Chapter 10: Running Effective Project BoardsPart III: Help with PRINCE Project Management - Chapter 11: Producing and Updating the Business Case - Chapter 12: Deciding Roles and Responsibilities - Chapter 13: Managing Project Quality - Chapter 14: Planning the Project, Stages, and Work Packages - Chapter 15: Managing Project Risk - Chapter 16: Controlling Change and Controlling Versions - Chapter 17: Monitoring Progress and Setting Up Effective ControlsPart IV: The Part of Tens - Chapter 18: Ten Ways to Make PRINCE Work Well - Chapter 19: Ten Tips for a Good Business Case - Chapter 20: Ten Things for Successful Project Assurance Part V: Appendices - Appendix A: Looking into PRINCE Qualifications - Appendix B: Glossary of the Main PRINCE2 Terms

    Our inaugural effort is OpenIntro Statistics. Probability is optional, inference is key, and we feature real data whenever possible. Files for the entire book are freely available at openintro.org, and anybody can purchase a paperback copy from amazon.com for under $10.The future for OpenIntro depends on the involvement and enthusiasm of our community. Visit our website, openintro.org. We provide free course management tools, including an online question bank, utilities for creating course quizzes, and many other helpful resources.CERTAIN CONTENT THAT APPEARS ON THIS SITE COMES FROM AMAZON SERVICES LLC. THIS CONTENT IS PROVIDED ‘AS IS’ AND IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE OR REMOVAL AT ANY TIME.Can’t find it here? Search Amazon.com Search: All Products Apparel & AccessoriesBabyBeautyBooksCamera & PhotoCell Phones & ServiceClassical MusicComputersComputer & Video GamesDVDElectronicsGourmet FoodHome & GardenMiscellaneousHealth & Personal CareJewelry & WatchesKitchen & HousewaresMagazine SubscriptionsMusicMusical InstrumentsSoftwareSports & OutdoorsTools & HardwareToys & GamesVHS Keywords:

    Politicians and marketers present shoddy evidence for dubious claims all the time. But smart people make mistakes too, and when it comes to statistics, plenty of otherwise great scientists--yes, even those published in peer-reviewed journals--are doing statistics wrong."Statistics Done Wrong" comes to the rescue with cautionary tales of all-too-common statistical fallacies. It'll help you see where and why researchers often go wrong and teach you the best practices for avoiding their mistakes.In this book, you'll learn: - Why "statistically significant" doesn't necessarily imply practical significance- Ideas behind hypothesis testing and regression analysis, and common misinterpretations of those ideas- How and how not to ask questions, design experiments, and work with data- Why many studies have too little data to detect what they're looking for-and, surprisingly, why this means published results are often overestimates- Why false positives are much more common than "significant at the 5% level" would suggestBy walking through colorful examples of statistics gone awry, the book offers approachable lessons on proper methodology, and each chapter ends with pro tips for practicing scientists and statisticians. No matter what your level of experience, "Statistics Done Wrong" will teach you how to be a better analyst, data scientist, or researcher.

    Mandelbrot, one of the century's most influential mathematicians, is world-famous for making mathematical sense of a fact everybody knows but that geometers from Euclid on down had never assimilated: Clouds are not round, mountains are not cones, coastlines are not smooth. To these classic lines we can now add another example: Markets are not the safe bet your broker may claim. In his first book for a general audience, Mandelbrot, with co-author Richard L. Hudson, shows how the dominant way of thinking about the behavior of markets-a set of mathematical assumptions a century old and still learned by every MBA and financier in the world-simply does not work. As he did for the physical world in his classic The Fractal Geometry of Nature, Mandelbrot here uses fractal geometry to propose a new, more accurate way of describing market behavior. The complex gyrations of IBM's stock price and the dollar-euro exchange rate can now be reduced to straightforward formulae that yield a far better model of how risky they are. With his fractal tools, Mandelbrot has gotten to the bottom of how financial markets really work, and in doing so, he describes the volatile, dangerous (and strangely beautiful) properties that financial experts have never before accounted for. The result is no less than the foundation for a new science of finance.

    Game Theory is the mathematical formalization of interactive decision-making - it assumes that each player's goal is to maximize his/her benefit, whatever it may be. Players may be friends, foes, political parties, states, or any entity that behaves interactively, whether collectively or individually. One of the problems with game analysis is the fact that, as a player, it's very hard to know what would benefit each of the other players; some of us are not even clear about our own goals or what might actually benefit us. Haim Shapira uses multiple examples to explain what Game Theory is and how the different interactions between decision-makers can play out. In this book you will: Meet the Nobel Laureate John F Nash and familiarize yourself with his celebrated equilibrium Learn the basic ideas of the art of negotiation Visit the gladiators' ring and apply for a coaching position Build an airport and divide inheritance Issue ultimatums and learn to trust

    Praise for Alan David 'A classic of the genre.' – Tom Kasey, bestselling author of Trade Off.Alan David is a prolific writer of over 500 novels in a wide range of genres, from classic westerns, to historical thrillers. His other western novels include Fight or Die, Gun Hell, Gun Wages, Wildmen and Draw or Die. Pioneering Press is an imprint of Endeavour Press, the UK’s leading independent digital publisher. We publish new and classic westerns by authors from the US and the UK. Sign up to our newsletterFollow us on Twitter: @PioneeringPress

    With the stock market sinking and soaring from day to day, retirement plans becoming less certain, and a longer life expectancy in retirement, more people are looking for some control over their investments. If you're one of them, Investing Online For Dummies, 6th Edition might be just what you're looking for. The Internet brings a world of investment resources to your desktop, but how do you find your way through the dizzying array of investment possibilities? The Dummies Way, of course! This book helps you set reasonable expectations, assess your risk tolerance, choose an asset allocation, analyze and select investments, and maximize your financial success. You'll discover how toDetermine how much you can afford to invest Choose an online broker Research, trade, and track investments online Measure the potential return of a stock Maximize your investment knowledge and build a profitable portfolio Buy bonds online Understand options, commodities, and IPOs If you've decided to take control of your investments but don't want to make it your full-time job, Investing Online For Dummies, 6th Edition gives you the important information that will also give you confidence. Completely updated to cover all the new online tools and resources, it even provides some bonus assistance on the companion Web site.

    Today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, instigated by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and established causality -- the study of cause and effect -- on a firm scientific basis. His work explains how we can know easy things, like whether it was rain or a sprinkler that made a sidewalk wet; and how to answer hard questions, like whether a drug cured an illness. Pearl's work enables us to know not just whether one thing causes another: it lets us explore the world that is and the worlds that could have been. It shows us the essence of human thought and key to artificial intelligence. Anyone who wants to understand either needs The Book of Why.

    It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importance of big data by noting that observations are not all equally important: the amount of information in a data set is often proportional to only the square root of the number of observations, not the absolute number. The third idea is likelihood, the calibration of inferences with the use of probability. Intercomparison is the principle that statistical comparisons do not need to be made with respect to an external standard. The fifth pillar is regression, both a paradox (tall parents on average produce shorter children; tall children on average have shorter parents) and the basis of inference, including Bayesian inference and causal reasoning. The sixth concept captures the importance of experimental design for example, by recognizing the gains to be had from a combinatorial approach with rigorous randomization. The seventh idea is the residual the notion that a complicated phenomenon can be simplified by subtracting the effect of known causes, leaving a residual phenomenon that can be explained more easily.The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom presents an original, unified account of statistical science that will fascinate the interested layperson and engage the professional statistician."

    The calculus is not a hard subject and I prove this through an easy to read and obvious approach spanning only 100 pages. I have written this book with the following type of student in mind; the non-traditional student returning to college after a long break, a notoriously weak student in math who just needs to get past calculus to obtain a degree, and the garage tinkerer who wishes to understand a little more about the technical subjects. This book is meant to address the many fundamental thought-blocks that keep the average 'mathaphobe' (or just an interested person who doesn't have the time to enroll in a course) from excelling in mathematics in a clear and concise manner. It is my sincerest hope that this book helps you with your needs.Show more Show less

    So what comes next? Growth will resume. But economic uncertainty will worsen, making what comes next not just a boom but a nerve-shattering SONIC BOOM. Gregg Easterbrook - who "writes nothing that is not brilliant" ("Chicago Tribune") - is a fount of unconventional wisdom, and over time, he is almost always proven right. Throughout 2008 and 2009, as the global economy was contracting and the experts were panicking, Easterbrook worked on a book saying prosperity is about to make its next big leap. Will he be right again? SONIC BOOM: Globalization at Mach Speed presents three basic insights. First, if you don't like globalization, brace yourself, because globalization has barely started. Easterbrook contends the world is about to become "far "more globally linked. Second, the next wave of global change will be primarily positive: economic prosperity, knowledge and freedom will increase more in the next 50 years than in all of human history to this point. But before you celebrate, Easterbrook further warns that the next phase of global change is going to drive us crazy. Most things will be good for most people - but nothing will seem certain for anyone. Each SONIC BOOM chapter is based on examples of cities around the world - in the United States, Europe, Russia, China, South America - that represent a significant Sonic Boom trend. With a terrific sense of humor, pitch-perfect reporting and clear, elegant prose, Easterbrook explains why economic recovery is on the horizon but why the next phase of global change will also give everyone one hell of a headache. "Forbes" calls Easterbrook "the best writer on complex topics in the United States" and SONIC BOOM will show you why.

    It used to be that to diagnose an illness, interpret legal documents, analyze foreign policy, or write a newspaper article you needed a human being with specific skills—and maybe an advanced degree or two. These days, high-level tasks are increasingly being handled by algorithms that can do precise work not only with speed but also with nuance. These “bots” started with human programming and logic, but now their reach extends beyond what their creators ever expected. In this fascinating, frightening book, Christopher Steiner tells the story of how algorithms took over—and shows why the “bot revolution” is about to spill into every aspect of our lives, often silently, without our knowledge. The May 2010 “Flash Crash” exposed Wall Street’s reliance on trading bots to the tune of a 998-point market drop and $1 trillion in vanished market value. But that was just the beginning. In Automate This, we meet bots that are driving cars, penning haiku, and writing music mistaken for Bach’s. They listen in on our customer service calls and figure out what Iran would do in the event of a nuclear standoff. There are algorithms that can pick out the most cohesive crew of astronauts for a space mission or identify the next Jeremy Lin. Some can even ingest statistics from baseball games and spit out pitch-perfect sports journalism indistinguishable from that produced by humans. The interaction of man and machine can make our lives easier. But what will the world look like when algorithms control our hospitals, our roads, our culture, and our national security? What hap­pens to businesses when we automate judgment and eliminate human instinct? And what role will be left for doctors, lawyers, writers, truck drivers, and many others?  Who knows—maybe there’s a bot learning to do your job this minute.