As the recent collapse on Wall Street shows, we are often ill-equipped to deal with uncertainty and risk. Yet every day we base our personal and business plans on uncertainties, whether they be next month's sales, next year's costs, or tomorrow's stock price. In The Flaw of Averages, Sam Savage-known for his creative exposition of difficult subjects- describes common avoidable mistakes in assessing risk in the face of uncertainty. Along the way, he shows why plans based on average assumptions are wrong, on average, in areas as diverse as healthcare, accounting, the War on Terror, and climate change. In his chapter on Sex and the Central Limit Theorem, he bravely grasps the literary third rail of gender differences.Instead of statistical jargon, Savage presents complex concepts in plain English. In addition, a tightly integrated web site contains numerous animations and simulations to further connect the seat of the reader's intellect to the seat of their pants.The Flaw of Averages typically results when someone plugs a single number into a spreadsheet to represent an uncertain future quantity. Savage finishes the book with a discussion of the emerging field of Probability Management, which cures this problem though a new technology that can pack thousands of numbers into a single spreadsheet cell.Praise for The Flaw of Averages"Statistical uncertainties are pervasive in decisions we make every day in business, government, and our personal lives. Sam Savage's lively and engaging book gives any interested reader the insight and the tools to deal effectively with those uncertainties. I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages." --William J. Perry, Former U.S. Secretary of Defense"Enterprise analysis under uncertainty has long been an academic ideal. . . . In this profound and entertaining book, Professor Savage shows how to make all this practical, practicable, and comprehensible." ---Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

    Drawing from Scientific American's "Fact or Fiction" and "Strange But True" columns, we've selected fifty-eight of the most surprising, fascinating, useful, and just plain wacky topics confronted by our writers over the years.

    Introducing students to the many facets of neural networks, this text provides many case studies to illustrate their real-life, practical applications.

    In the Fourth Edition CALCULUS, EARLY TRANSCENDENTALS these functions are introduced in the first chapter and their limits and derivatives are found in Chapters 2 and 3 at the same time as polynomials and other elementary functions. In this Fourth Edition, Stewart retains the focus on problem solving, the meticulous accuracy, the patient explanations, and the carefully graded problems that have made these texts word so well for a wide range of students. All new and unique features in CALCULUS, FOURTH EDITION have been incorporated into these revisions also.

    This connectedness is found in many incarnations: in the rapid growth of the Internet, in the ease with which global communication takes place, and in the ability of news and information as well as epidemics and financial crises to spread with surprising speed and intensity. These are phenomena that involve networks, incentives, and the aggregate behavior of groups of people; they are based on the links that connect us and the ways in which our decisions can have subtle consequences for others. This introductory undergraduate textbook takes an interdisciplinary look at economics, sociology, computing and information science, and applied mathematics to understand networks and behavior. It describes the emerging field of study that is growing at the interface of these areas, addressing fundamental questions about how the social, economic, and technological worlds are connected.

    get this book now!*** Do you wonder about the future... what things will be like some day, how long it might take, and what we can do about it? Substantive yet imaginative, readable, occasionally humorous, and science oriented, this book proposes possible future scenarios spanning from the current century to nearly eternity. Most chapters offer a concluding section with recommendations and often, agree or disagree, the author's occasionally inimitable opinions. Some of the recommended actions can be done by individuals, others by nations or other groups, and still others by the entire world. Over 300 references. Discover "What it Means That an Hour’s Work Yields a Week’s Food" (chapter 1). Foresee the "Teeming Cities of Mars" (chap. 21). Learn why it’s "Keyboards Yesterday, Mind Reading Tomorrow" (chap. 3). Have you ever wondered — "Will Artificial Intelligence Threaten Civilization?" (See chap. 12.) Find out what happens "When Genomes Get Cheap" (chap. 6). Prepare for an "Asteroid Apocalypse" (chap. 25). Explore why you would benefit from "Wiki-Wiki-Wikipedia" (chap. 4). How we will "Live Anywhere, Work Anywhere Else" (chap. 2). Realize how the future "Tastes Like the Singularity" (chap. 15). Get smarter with "Smart Pills’n Such" (chap. 5). Experience a "Soylent Spring" (chap. 9). Understand nukes better by "Deconstructing Nonproliferation" (chap. 13). Get ready for a "Space Empire" (chap. 14). What is "Sic Transit Humanitas: The Transcent of Man" (chap. 26)? There’s global warming, and there’s "Warm, Poison Planet" (chap. 17). But let’s not forget about "Big Ice" (chap. 22). Things may really grow on trees with "New Plant Paradigms" (chap. 24). We all have "Questions" (chap. 31). And much more! This book is aimed at the reader who is interested in the future, and intrigued by science and technology.

    By revealing how top investors and traders think and act Steven Sears shows the stock market to be an undulating ocean of money, with seasoned investors reading the waves others cannot.Teaching readers to think about the market in radically different ways, "The Indomitable Investor" shows how to improve returns--and, just as importantly, avoid losses--with disciplines deployed by people who almost always do exactly the opposite of what Wall Street says to do.Laying bare great fallacies, the book explains that non-professional investors wrongly think the stock market is a place to make money, which is what Wall Street wants them to try to do. "The Indomitable Investor" says otherwise and shows how Wall Street's best investors have a completely different focus.Explains the critical ideas and insights of top traders and investors in language anyone can understand and implementPacked with material rarely shared off Wall Street that is used every day by professional investorsIntroduces the 17 most important words on Wall StreetTeaches critical skills, including: How to increase returns by focusing on risk, not potential profits; how to use the stock market's historical patterns to optimize investment decisions; understanding key relationships between stocks and the economy that predict what will happen to stocks and the broader market; how to increase mutual fund returns with an easy adjustment that redirects the bulk of profits to you--not mutual fund companies, and how to analyze information like seasoned investors to move beyond "statement of the obvious" news reports that turn ordinary investors into Dumb MoneyAccessible to readers of all backgrounds, including those with a limited understanding of investing, "The Indomitable Investor" will change how investors view the stock market, Wall Street, and themselves.

    Unnikrishna Pillai of Polytechnic University. The book is intended for a senior/graduate level course in probability and is aimed at students in electrical engineering, math, and physics departments. The authors' approach is to develop the subject of probability theory and stochastic processes as a deductive discipline and to illustrate the theory with basic applications of engineering interest. Approximately 1/3 of the text is new material--this material maintains the style and spirit of previous editions. In order to bridge the gap between concepts and applications, a number of additional examples have been added for further clarity, as well as several new topics.

    In this book, Didier Sornette boldly applies his varied experience in these areas to propose a simple, powerful, and general theory of how, why, and when stock markets crash.Most attempts to explain market failures seek to pinpoint triggering mechanisms that occur hours, days, or weeks before the collapse. Sornette proposes a radically different view: the underlying cause can be sought months and even years before the abrupt, catastrophic event in the build-up of cooperative speculation, which often translates into an accelerating rise of the market price, otherwise known as a "bubble." Anchoring his sophisticated, step-by-step analysis in leading-edge physical and statistical modeling techniques, he unearths remarkable insights and some predictions--among them, that the "end of the growth era" will occur around 2050.Sornette probes major historical precedents, from the decades-long "tulip mania" in the Netherlands that wilted suddenly in 1637 to the South Sea Bubble that ended with the first huge market crash in England in 1720, to the Great Crash of October 1929 and Black Monday in 1987, to cite just a few. He concludes that most explanations other than cooperative self-organization fail to account for the subtle bubbles by which the markets lay the groundwork for catastrophe.Any investor or investment professional who seeks a genuine understanding of looming financial disasters should read this book. Physicists, geologists, biologists, economists, and others will welcome "Why Stock Markets Crash" as a highly original "scientific tale," as Sornette aptly puts it, of the exciting and sometimes fearsome--but no longer quite so unfathomable--world of stock markets.

    Who better to try to find order in the apparently unreasoned chaos of the global financial markets? Thomas A. Bass takes us inside their start-up company, following it from its inception as a motley collection of longhaired Ph.D.s to its passage into the centers of financial power, where the predictors find investors and finally go live with real money. The Predictors is a dizzying, often hilarious tale of genius and greed.

    Mankiw emphasizes material that you are likely to find interesting about the economy (particularly if you are studying economics for the first time), including real-life scenarios, useful facts, and the many ways economic concepts play a role in the decisions you make every day.

    The book assumes no prior knowledge of computer programming and progressively covers all the essential steps needed to become confident and proficient in using R within a day. Topics include how to input, manipulate, format, iterate (loop), query, perform basic statistics on, and plot data, via a step-by-step technique and demonstrations using in-built datasets which the reader is encouraged to replicate on their computer. Each chapter also includes exercises (with solutions) to practice key skills and empower the reader to build on the essentials gained during this introductory course.

    It is based on the idea that everyone acts competitively and in his own best interest. With the help of mathematical models, it is possible to anticipate the actions of others in nearly all life's enterprises. This book includes down-to-earth examples and solutions, as well as charts and illustrations designed to help teach the concept. In The Complete Idiot's Guide® to Game Theory, Dr. Edward C. Rosenthal makes it easy to understand game theory with insights into:? The history of the disciple made popular by John Nash, the mathematician dramatized in the film A Beautiful Mind? The role of social behavior and psychology in this amazing discipline? How important game theory has become in our society and why

    Live well, laugh often, love much and share God's blessings. We all know that laughter is the best medicine, and this is true, Laughter is a powerful antidote to stress, pain, and conflict. Nothing works faster or more dependably to bring your mind and body back into balance than a good laugh. Humor lightens your burdens, inspires hopes, connects you to others, and keeps you grounded, focused, and alert. Read our collection of jokes and funny short stories. These jokes and funny stories are collected from different sources in the Internet. Download our book now, and laugh out those stress away. Please note that this book is categorized under Jokes for Adults and may contain some offensive jokes and stories, and it is your discretion as a customer whether to share the jokes and stories with others.