Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    The Windows Command Line Beginner's Guide gives users new to the Windows command line an overview of the Command Prompt, from simple tasks to network configuration.In the Guide, you'll learn how to:-Manage the Command Prompt.-Copy & paste from the Windows Command Prompt.-Create batch files.-Remotely manage Windows machines from the command line.-Manage disks, partitions, and volumes.-Set an IP address and configure other network settings.-Set and manage NTFS and file sharing permissions.-Customize and modify the Command Prompt.-Create and manage file shares.-Copy, move, and delete files and directories from the command line.-Manage PDF files and office documents from the command line.-And many other topics.

    It provides guidance to help customers apply best practices in the design, delivery, and maintenance of secure AWS environments. This documentation is offered for free here as a Kindle book, or you can read it in PDF format at https://aws.amazon.com/whitepapers/.

    Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.

    Naturally, that means John Walkenbach returns with a new edition of his bestselling VBA Programming book and covers all the methods and tools you need to know in order to program with Excel. With this comprehensive guide, Mr. Spreadsheet shows you how to maximize your Excel experience using professional spreadsheet application development tips from his own personal bookshelf.Featuring a complete introduction to Visual Basic for Applications and fully updated for the latest features of Excel 2013, this essential reference includes an analysis of Excel application development and is packed with procedures, tips, and ideas for expanding Excel's capabilities with VBA.Offers an analysis of Excel application development and a complete introduction to VBA Features invaluable advice from Mr. Spreadsheet himself, bestselling author John Walkenbach, who demonstrates all the techniques you need to create Excel applications, both large and small Covers navigating the Excel interface, formatting worksheets, interacting with other Office applications, working with collaboration tools, and using sample workbooks and John Walkenbach's award-winning Power Utility Pak to help enhance your Excel skills Provides tips, tricks, and techniques for expanding Excel's capabilities with VBA that you wont find anywhere else Excel 2013 Power Programming with VBA is packed with procedures, tips, and ideas for achieving Excel excellence with VBA.

    Theory and practice in the design of data graphics, 250 illustrations of the best (and a few of the worst) statistical graphics, with detailed analysis of how to display data for precise, effective, quick analysis. Design of the high-resolution displays, small multiples. Editing and improving graphics. The data-ink ratio. Time-series, relational graphics, data maps, multivariate designs. Detection of graphical deception: design variation vs. data variation. Sources of deception. Aesthetics and data graphical displays. This is the second edition of The Visual Display of Quantitative Information. Recently published, this new edition provides excellent color reproductions of the many graphics of William Playfair, adds color to other images, and includes all the changes and corrections accumulated during 17 printings of the first edition.

    In Dataclysm, Christian Rudder uses it to show us who we truly are.   For centuries, we’ve relied on polling or small-scale lab experiments to study human behavior. Today, a new approach is possible. As we live more of our lives online, researchers can finally observe us directly, in vast numbers, and without filters. Data scientists have become the new demographers.   In this daring and original book, Rudder explains how Facebook "likes" can predict, with surprising accuracy, a person’s sexual orientation and even intelligence; how attractive women receive exponentially more interview requests; and why you must have haters to be hot. He charts the rise and fall of America’s most reviled word through Google Search and examines the new dynamics of collaborative rage on Twitter. He shows how people express themselves, both privately and publicly. What is the least Asian thing you can say? Do people bathe more in Vermont or New Jersey? What do black women think about Simon & Garfunkel? (Hint: they don’t think about Simon & Garfunkel.) Rudder also traces human migration over time, showing how groups of people move from certain small towns to the same big cities across the globe. And he grapples with the challenge of maintaining privacy in a world where these explorations are possible.   Visually arresting and full of wit and insight, Dataclysm is a new way of seeing ourselves—a brilliant alchemy, in which math is made human and numbers become the narrative of our time.

    Whether you’re an intermediate-level Python programmer or a student of computational modeling, you’ll delve into examples of complex systems through a series of exercises, case studies, and easy-to-understand explanations.You’ll work with graphs, algorithm analysis, scale-free networks, and cellular automata, using advanced features that make Python such a powerful language. Ideal as a text for courses on Python programming and algorithms, Think Complexity will also help self-learners gain valuable experience with topics and ideas they might not encounter otherwise.Work with NumPy arrays and SciPy methods, basic signal processing and Fast Fourier Transform, and hash tablesStudy abstract models of complex physical systems, including power laws, fractals and pink noise, and Turing machinesGet starter code and solutions to help you re-implement and extend original experiments in complexityExplore the philosophy of science, including the nature of scientific laws, theory choice, realism and instrumentalism, and other topicsExamine case studies of complex systems submitted by students and readers

    By learning about maro through the example of Wahei’s life, you can also become financially successful—and profoundly happy to boot.Often called “the Warren Buffet of Japan,” Wahei Takeda is the most successful investor in the country, and no doubt he’s the happiest one, too! My success is a direct result of listening and applying Wahei’s philosophy of “Maro Up!” to my own life and business. We know from personal experience, that if you take what you learn in this ebook and apply it to yourself, you too, will see success blossom in your life.

    Intended for developers who are already familiar with the Apex language, and experienced Java and C# developers who are moving to Apex, this book starts where the Force.com documentation leaves off. Instead of trying to cover all of the features of the platform, Advanced Apex programming focuses entirely on the Apex language and core design patterns. You’ll learn how to truly think in Apex – to embrace limits and bulk patterns. You’ll see how to develop architectures for efficient and reliable trigger handling, and for asynchronous operations. You’ll discover that best practices differ radically depending on whether you are building software for a specific organization or for a managed package. And you’ll find approaches for incorporating testing and diagnostic code that can dramatically improve the reliability and deployment of Apex software, and reduce your lifecycle and support costs. Based on his experience both as a consultant and as architect of a major AppExchange package, Dan Appleman focuses on the real-world problems and issues that are faced by Apex developers every day, along with the obscure problems and surprises that can sneak up on you if you are unprepared.

    The award-winning author Melanie Mitchell, a leading computer scientist, now reveals AI’s turbulent history and the recent spate of apparent successes, grand hopes, and emerging fears surrounding it.In Artificial Intelligence, Mitchell turns to the most urgent questions concerning AI today: How intelligent—really—are the best AI programs? How do they work? What can they actually do, and when do they fail? How humanlike do we expect them to become, and how soon do we need to worry about them surpassing us? Along the way, she introduces the dominant models of modern AI and machine learning, describing cutting-edge AI programs, their human inventors, and the historical lines of thought underpinning recent achievements. She meets with fellow experts such as Douglas Hofstadter, the cognitive scientist and Pulitzer Prize–winning author of the modern classic Gödel, Escher, Bach, who explains why he is “terrified” about the future of AI. She explores the profound disconnect between the hype and the actual achievements in AI, providing a clear sense of what the field has accomplished and how much further it has to go.Interweaving stories about the science of AI and the people behind it, Artificial Intelligence brims with clear-sighted, captivating, and accessible accounts of the most interesting and provocative modern work in the field, flavored with Mitchell’s humor and personal observations. This frank, lively book is an indispensable guide to understanding today’s AI, its quest for “human-level” intelligence, and its impact on the future for us all.

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.

      Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

    Over the years sports debates have become muddled by many myths that do not match the numbers generated by those playing the games. In The Wages of Wins, the authors use layman's language and easy to follow examples based on their own academic research to debunk many of the most commonly held beliefs about sports.In this updated version of their book, these authors explain why Allen Iverson leaving Philadelphia made the 76ers a better team, why the Yankees find it so hard to repeat their success from the late 1990s, and why even great quarterbacks like Brett Favre are consistently inconsistent. The book names names, and makes it abundantly clear that much of the decision making of coaches and general managers does not hold up to an analysis of the numbers. Whether you are a fantasy league fanatic or a casual weekend fan, much of what you believe about sports will change after reading this book.