Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    Yet something about our species distinguished it from the pack, and ultimately led to its survival while the rest became extinct. Just what was it that allowed Homo sapiens to become masters of the planet? Ian Tattersall, curator emeritus at the American Museum of Natural History, takes us deep into the fossil record to uncover what made humans so special. Surveying a vast field from initial bipedality to language and intelligence, Tattersall argues that Homo sapiens acquired a winning combination of traits that was not the result of long-term evolutionary refinement. Instead, the final result emerged quickly, shocking our world and changing it forever.

    Primordial beasts roamed the land: creatures like the giant sloth, the flat-faced bear, the woolly mammoth, and the dire wolf hunted there, often coming into conflict with their two-legged prey.When Do-na-ti reaches adulthood, he slays the badger for his ceremonial cloak. By wedding E-lo-ni, he unites their clans. Together they must face battle with dire wolves, a stampede of mammoths that destroys their lodge, and the birth of a new volcano, fulfilling an old woman's prophecy and Do-na-ti's conviction that his son must become brother to the mountain."Mayhar has a way of drawing the reader seamlessly into her historical narratives. You can smell the breath of the dire wolf as it closes in for the kill!" -- Robert Reginald

    But who were the early speakers of this ancient mother tongue, and how did they manage to spread it around the globe? Until now their identity has remained a tantalizing mystery to linguists, archaeologists, and even Nazis seeking the roots of the Aryan race. The Horse, the Wheel, and Language lifts the veil that has long shrouded these original Indo-European speakers, and reveals how their domestication of horses and use of the wheel spread language and transformed civilization.Linking prehistoric archaeological remains with the development of language, David Anthony identifies the prehistoric peoples of central Eurasia's steppe grasslands as the original speakers of Proto-Indo-European, and shows how their innovative use of the ox wagon, horseback riding, and the warrior's chariot turned the Eurasian steppes into a thriving transcontinental corridor of communication, commerce, and cultural exchange. He explains how they spread their traditions and gave rise to important advances in copper mining, warfare, and patron-client political institutions, thereby ushering in an era of vibrant social change. Anthony also describes his fascinating discovery of how the wear from bits on ancient horse teeth reveals the origins of horseback riding.The Horse, the Wheel, and Language solves a puzzle that has vexed scholars for two centuries--the source of the Indo-European languages and English--and recovers a magnificent and influential civilization from the past.

    Now an internationally recognized scientist at a top U.S. medical school—one of the leading researchers in the field—sheds light on the extraordinary benefits of these natural health superstars. Thanks to an explosion of research in recent years, one thing is clear: probiotics, the healthy bacteria that inhabit the digestive tract, are the body’s silent partners for good health, optimizing the power of the immune system to fight disease and the “bad” germs we fear. But how do they work? And in the face of factors like stress and poor diet, which decrease their numbers, how do you keep your supply well stocked? Here is an up-to-the-minute, highly accessible guide to probiotics and the foods and supplements that contain and support them—many of which may be in your diet already. Discover:The key role of probiotics and prebiotics in restoring healthy balance to our bodies, improving immune system functioning, and curbing inflammationHow to use probiotic foods and supplements to prevent and relieve allergies, inflammatory bowel disease, irritable bowel syndrome, yeast infections, and the negative side effects of antibiotic useNew evidence that probiotics may help fight asthma, cardiovascular disease, breast and colon cancer, autoimmune diseases, chronic fatigue, fibromyalgia—and even obesityNatural sources of prebiotics, the nutrients that help make the digestive tract more hospitable for probiotic bacteriaThe Probiotics Revolution also includes a step-by-step plan for incorporating the many food sources of probiotics and prebiotics into your diet, a complete buyer’s guide to probiotic supplements, and how to introduce probiotics to your family and children.From the Hardcover edition.

    25 photos. Index.

    Jim Axelrod—once among the most watched correspondents on network news and the first television reporter to broadcast from Saddam International Airport in 2003—is covering the final stages of the race for the Democratic presidential nomination. He’s forty-five years old and thirty pounds overweight. He’s drinking too much, sleeping too little, and scarcely seeing his family. He’s just figured out that the industry that pulled him up the corporate ladder is imploding as he’s reaching for its final rungs. Then, out of the blue, Jim discovers his late father’s decades-old New York Marathon finish times. At forty-six, Bob Axelrod ran a 3:29:58. With everything else going on in his life, Jim sets himself a defining challenge: “Can I beat him?” So begins a deeply felt, often hilarious, quixotic effort to run the 2009 New York Marathon. Along the way, Jim confronts his listing marriage, a career upset by the seismic changes going on throughout the television news industry, excruciatingly painful shin splints, and the worst-timed kidney stone possible. Looming over it all is the shadow of a loving father, who repeatedly lost his way in life but still has a lesson to impart. This is a book about a dead father’s challenge to a son at a crossroads, but, more than that, it is about the personal costs paid when ambition and talent are not enough to ensure success. Most fundamentally, though, it is a book about learning what it takes to be happy in your own skin.

    A single father with a secret of his own, will do anything to give his daughter a better life, but the sacrifice may be greater than anything he could have ever imagined. Five years after the Chinese Axis detonated an unknown weapon of mass destruction off the southern coast of the United States, Special Ops Sergeant John Crider and the members of Shadow Company have finally captured what they all hope will lead to the end of the war. Unfortunately, the population within the United States is no longer sustainable. In an effort to stabilize the economy, the government enacts the Cryonics Act. One hundred years in suspended animation, all debt forgiven, and a chance at a less crowded future are too good to pass up for John and his young daughter. Except not everything always goes as planned as Sergeant John Crider finds himself pitted against a land of prehistoric monsters genetically resurrected from the fossil record, murderous inhabitants, and a future he never wanted.

    In his groundbreaking Before the Dawn, Wade reveals humanity's origins as never before--a journey made possible only recently by genetic science, whose incredible findings have answered such questions as: What was the first human language like? How large were the first societies, and how warlike were they? When did our ancestors first leave Africa, and by what route did they leave? By eloquently solving these and numerous other mysteries, Wade offers nothing less than a uniquely complete retelling of a story that began 500 centuries ago.

    Acclaimed Fearless Critic Robin Goldstein has gone around the country serving 6,000 glasses of wine from brown paper bags to experts and everyday wine drinkers around America. Here, in print for the first time, are the shocking results, including full-page reviews of the 100 wines that beat $50 to $150 bottles in the blind tastings.

    Administered off-label in small daily doses (0.5 to 4.5 mg), this generic drug is extremely affordable and presents few known side effects. So why has it languished in relative medical obscurity? The LDN Book explains the drug’s origins, its primary mechanism, and the latest research from practicing physicians and pharmacists as compiled by Linda Elsegood of The LDN Research Trust, the world’s largest LDN charity organization with over 19,000 members worldwide. Featuring ten chapters contributed by medical professionals on LDN’s efficacy and two patient-friendly appendices, The LDN Book is a comprehensive resource for doctors, pharmacists, and patients who want to learn more about how LDN is helping people now, and a clarion call for further research that could help millions more.

    A Paramedic's Diary is his gripping, blow-by-blow account of a year on the streets - 12 roller-coaster months of enormous highs and tragic lows. One day he'll save a young mother's life as she gives birth, the next he might watch a young girl die on the tarmac in front of him after a hit-and-run. His is a world of hoax calls, drunks and druggies, terrorist bombings and gangland shootings. A gripping, entertaining and often amusing read. About the author:Stuart Gray has been a guest on Saturday Live on Radio 4 and the Simon Mayo Show and the Donal MacIntyre Show on Radio Five Live.He has also appeared on TV in Bizarre ER. The Times named him one of the 40 Bloggers who really count and said that he 'encounters more blood-curdling drama on a single shift than most people would in a year' and that his writing is 'compelling and plainly written.'

    Melting & boiling points, Density, Electronegativity, Electron affinity, and much more in the Full version. Navigate from TOC or search for words or phrases. Features Formatted for a small screen Atomic numbers, symbols & weights Chemical symbols and more... Easy to navigate. Search for the words or phrases Navigate from Table of Contents or read page by page Access the guide anytime, anywhere - at home, on the train, in the subway. Use your down time to prepare for an exam. Always have the guide available for a quick reference. Table of Contents Periodic Table: Standard | LargeList of elements sorted by: Atomic number (including atomic Mass) | Name | Symbol | Boiling Point | Melting Point | Density | Atomic radius | Electronegativity | Electron affinity | Ionization potential | Standard enthalpy change of vaporization | Standard enthalpy change of fusion | Specific heat capacity About Periodic Table: Arrangement | Periodicity of chemical properties | Electron configuration | Naming of elements | Chemical symbols | HistoryChemical Series: Alkali metal | Alkaline earth metal | Lanthanides | Actinides | Transition metals | Poor metals | Metalloids | Nonmetals | Halogens | Noble gasesAppendix: IUPAC nomenclature | Metric system (SI) | SI writing style | Powers of 10 prefixes | United States units conversion

    The coloring book helps you memorize the anatomy content you need to know in both veterinary medicine and veterinary technology and gives you a fun way to review the information you have studied. All illustrations in the book are suitable for coloring and are of the highest quality, created by expert medical illustrators.Organized by body region, the book is divided into sections devoted to the head and neck; neck, back, and vertebral column; thorax; abdomen; pelvis; forlimb; and hindlimb.Numbered lead lines clearly identify structures to be colored and correspond to a numbered list beneath the illustration so you can easily visualize the veterinary anatomy. Plus, you can create your own color code using the numbered boxes provided for each illustration.Comprehensive veterinary anatomy coverage helps you reinforce your understanding of canine, feline, equine, porcine, ruminants, and avian anatomy.High quality illustrations make it easy for you to color in each anatomic region and review anatomic details.Self-study format provides a fun and interactive way to prepare for exams throughout your veterinary courses.Part of Elsevier's complete veterinary anatomy learning system, integrating core anatomy knowledge, engaging review, hands-on practice, and clinical application to give you a solid foundation for success!

     It’s the story about how a Chinese fishing village became a global economic powerhouse of innovation and technology. Just four decades ago Shenzhen was a backwater area, populated by fishermen and rice farmers. Today, it’s home to up to 20 million people and some of the world’s leading technology companies and most innovative tech startups. No other city better symbolizes the rise of modern China. And no other city challenges Silicon Valley more aggressively as the global hub for innovation and technology startups. In many ways, the Chinese city has already outsmarted the Valley. “Shenzhen has an energy of growth – the same energy I felt when I first came to Silicon Valley ten years ago. And it’s not just in technology. It’s this idea that whoever you are, whatever you’re into, you can come to China, and especially Shenzhen, and do it!” American entrepreneur Scotty Allen says in the book. Shenzhen Superstars is written for anyone who wants to be part of this raging growth story – no matter if you’re a tech buff, investor or just someone curious about knowing what’s driving the future. As a journalist for CNN, Forbes and other international media, Johan Nylander has witnessed the astonishing transformation of the south Chinese city. Its speed, energy and determination are just mind-blowing. His aim is to take you inside, to the very heart of what is shaping this vibrant city. KEY QUOTES FROM THE BOOK “In terms of hardware plus software innovation, Shenzhen is ahead of the curve.” – Jeffrey Towson, private equity investor and Peking University professor “The next ten years will be the era of robots and intelligent machines, and Shenzhen will play well to that.” – Jixun Foo, managing partner of GGV Capital “Shenzhen is just better than Silicon Valley in terms of hardware and software integration.” – Qin Li, CEO of startup Sennotech “If you’re not already in Shenzhen, you're crazy.” – Edith Yeung, general partner of 500 Startups