The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    Reveals how to run an online business profitably in spite of the Internet's inherently free culture, disseminating the principles of a ''priceless economy'' in six categories that pertain to advertising, labor exchange, and advanced-version fees.

    This is the currently used textbook for "Probabilistic Systems Analysis," an introductory probability course at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, attended by a large number of undergraduate and graduate students. The book covers the fundamentals of probability theory (probabilistic models, discrete and continuous random variables, multiple random variables, and limit theorems), which are typically part of a first course on the subject. It also contains, a number of more advanced topics, from which an instructor can choose to match the goals of a particular course. These topics include transforms, sums of random variables, least squares estimation, the bivariate normal distribution, and a fairly detailed introduction to Bernoulli, Poisson, and Markov processes. The book strikes a balance between simplicity in exposition and sophistication in analytical reasoning. Some of the more mathematically rigorous analysis has been just intuitively explained in the text, but is developed in detail (at the level of advanced calculus) in the numerous solved theoretical problems. The book has been widely adopted for classroom use in introductory probability courses within the USA and abroad.

     Douglas Montgomery arms readers with the most effective approach for learning how to design, conduct, and analyze experiments that optimize performance in products and processes. He shows how to use statistically designed experiments to obtain information for characterization and optimization of systems, improve manufacturing processes, and design and develop new processes and products. You will also learn how to evaluate material alternatives in product design, improve the field performance, reliability, and manufacturing aspects of products, and conduct experiments effectively and efficiently. Discover how to improve the quality and efficiency of working systems with this highly-acclaimed book. This 6th Edition: Places a strong focus on the use of the computer, providing output from two software products: Minitab and DesignExpert. Presents timely, new examples as well as expanded coverage on adding runs to a fractional factorial to de-alias effects. Includes detailed discussions on how computers are currently used in the analysis and design of experiments. Offers new material on a number of important topics, including follow-up experimentation and split-plot design. Focuses even more sharply on factorial and fractional factorial design.

    The controversial book linking intelligence to class and race in modern society, and what public policy can do to mitigate socioeconomic differences in IQ, birth rate, crime, fertility, welfare, and poverty.

    Some businesses--like home exercise company Peloton, video conference software maker Zoom, and Amazon--woke up to find themselves crushed under an avalanche of consumer demand. Others--like the restaurant, travel, hospitality, and live entertainment industries--scrambled to escape obliteration.But as Scott Galloway argues, the pandemic has not been a change agent so much as an accelerant of trends already well underway. In Post Corona, he outlines the contours of the crisis and the opportunities that lie ahead. Some businesses, like the powerful tech monopolies, will thrive as a result of the disruption. Other industries, like higher education, will struggle to maintain a value proposition that no longer makes sense when we can't stand shoulder to shoulder. And the pandemic has accelerated deeper trends in government and society, exposing a widening gap between our vision of America as a land of opportunity, and the troubling realities of our declining wellbeing.Combining his signature humor and brash style with sharp business insights and the occasional dose of righteous anger, Galloway offers both warning and hope in equal measure. As he writes, Our commonwealth didn't just happen, it was shaped. We chose this path--no trend is permanent and can't be made worse or corrected.

    Stimulating, illuminating, and always surprising, The Big Questions challenges readers to re-evaluate their most fundamental beliefs and reveals the relationship between the loftiest philosophical quests and our everyday lives.

    Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    Included are step-by-step instructions on how to carry out Bayesian data analyses.Download Link : readbux.com/download?i=0124058884            0124058884 Doing Bayesian Data Analysis: A Tutorial with R, JAGS, and Stan PDF by John Kruschke

    Beginning with the background and very nature of probability theory, the book then proceeds through sample spaces, combinatorial analysis, fluctuations in coin tossing and random walks, the combination of events, types of distributions, Markov chains, stochastic processes, and more. The book's comprehensive approach provides a complete view of theory along with enlightening examples along the way.

    A wealth of accompanying figures and exercises illustrate and develop the material in more depth. They describe what a quantum computer is, how it can be used to solve problems faster than familiar "classical" computers, and the real-world implementation of quantum computers. Their book concludes with an explanation of how quantum states can be used to perform remarkable feats of communication, and of how it is possible to protect quantum states against the effects of noise.

    Anchored by six megabanks—Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley—which together control assets amounting, astonishingly, to more than 60 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, these financial institutions (now more emphatically “too big to fail”) continue to hold the global economy hostage, threatening yet another financial meltdown with their excessive risk-taking and toxic “business as usual” practices. How did this come to be—and what is to be done? These are the central concerns of 13 Bankers, a brilliant, historically informed account of our troubled political economy. In 13 Bankers, Simon Johnson—one of the most prominent and frequently cited economists in America (former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, Professor of Entrepreneurship at MIT, and author of the controversial “The Quiet Coup” in The Atlantic)—and James Kwak give a wide-ranging, meticulous, and bracing account of recent U.S. financial history within the context of previous showdowns between American democracy and Big Finance: from Thomas Jefferson to Andrew Jackson, from Theodore Roosevelt to Franklin Delano Roosevelt. They convincingly show why our future is imperiled by the ideology of finance (finance is good, unregulated finance is better, unfettered finance run amok is best) and by Wall Street’s political control of government policy pertaining to it. As the authors insist, the choice that America faces is stark: whether Washington will accede to the vested interests of an unbridled financial sector that runs up profits in good years and dumps its losses on taxpayers in lean years, or reform through stringent regulation the banking system as first and foremost an engine of economic growth. To restore health and balance to our economy, Johnson and Kwak make a radical yet feasible and focused proposal: reconfigure the megabanks to be “small enough to fail.” Lucid, authoritative, crucial for its timeliness, 13 Bankers is certain to be one of the most discussed and debated books of 2010.

    Having just completed his masterpiece, The General Theory of Relativity—which provided a brand-new theory of gravity and promised a new perspective on the cosmos as a whole—he set out at once to share his excitement with as wide a public as possible in this popular and accessible book.Here published for the first time as a Penguin Classic, this edition of Relativity features a new introduction by bestselling science author Nigel Calder.

    Game Theory is the mathematical formalization of interactive decision-making - it assumes that each player's goal is to maximize his/her benefit, whatever it may be. Players may be friends, foes, political parties, states, or any entity that behaves interactively, whether collectively or individually. One of the problems with game analysis is the fact that, as a player, it's very hard to know what would benefit each of the other players; some of us are not even clear about our own goals or what might actually benefit us. Haim Shapira uses multiple examples to explain what Game Theory is and how the different interactions between decision-makers can play out. In this book you will: Meet the Nobel Laureate John F Nash and familiarize yourself with his celebrated equilibrium Learn the basic ideas of the art of negotiation Visit the gladiators' ring and apply for a coaching position Build an airport and divide inheritance Issue ultimatums and learn to trust

    How to make sense of them? The answer lies in mathematical modeling, a science with applications in a host of biological systems. Soccermatics brings the two together in a fascinating, mind-bending synthesis.What's the similarity between an ant colony and Total Football, Dutch style? How is the Barcelona midfield linked geometrically? And how can we relate the mechanics of a Mexican Wave to the singing of cicadas in an Australian valley? Welcome to the world of mathematical modeling, expressed brilliantly by David Sumpter through the prism of soccer. Soccer is indeed more than a game and this book is packed with game theory. After reading it, you will forever watch the game with new eyes.