Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    Bread, cash, dosh, dough, loot, lucre, moolah, readies, the wherewithal: Call it what you like, it matters. To Christians, love of it is the root of all evil. To generals, it’s the sinews of war. To revolutionaries, it’s the chains of labor. But in The Ascent of Money, Niall Ferguson shows that finance is in fact the foundation of human progress. What’s more, he reveals financial history as the essential backstory behind all history. With the clarity and verve for which he is known, Ferguson elucidates key financial institutions and concepts by showing where they came from. What is money? What do banks do? What’s the difference between a stock and a bond? Why buy insurance or real estate? And what exactly does a hedge fund do? This is history for the present. Ferguson travels to post-Katrina New Orleans to ask why the free market can’t provide adequate protection against catastrophe. He delves into the origins of the subprime mortgage crisis.

    It details the intimate synergies between American military power and the financial means of Wall Street and Washington to create the most extensive global empire since the fall of the British Empire a century ago. It traces the rise of America from the 1800s to the hegemonic global superpower on the ashes of the British Empire by the end of the Second World War.Here's some of what you will learn:+ How a cabal of international Wall Street bankers in violation of the US Constitution made a coup d'etat in 1913 to create the private Federal Reserve to finance World War I and the rise of what they would later call the American Century. + How the Rockefeller family emerged during the Great Depression as the most influential family shaping America's destiny into and after World War II. + The real agenda of the American Century triumphantly proclaimed in 1941. + The real relation between America's military industrial complex and Bretton Woods Dollar System + How Wall Street banks systematically lifted all restraints on their expansion that ended in the 2007 Sub-prime meltdown and 2008 global financial crisis.The dollar financial system of Wall Street was born not at a conference in Bretton Woods New Hampshire in 1944. It was born in the first days of August, 1945 with the dropping of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. After that point the world was in no doubt who was the power to reckon with. This book is no ordinary book about money and finance. Rather it traces the history of money as an instrument of power; it traces the evolution of that power in the hands of a tiny elite that regards themselves as, quite literally, gods-The Gods of Money. How these gods abused their power and how they systematically set out to control the entire world is the subject.

    The Wheelbarrow Profits system for real estate investment takes advantage of an under appreciated source of wealth in the United States: multifamily properties. Learn how to identify your own niche, study your market, build your portfolio, and manage properties to successfully turn your investment into true wealth. Written and created by Jake Stenziano and Gino Barbaro, Wheelbarrow Profits is the tried and true system that they’ve utilized to grow a single multifamily investment into nearly a dozen successful and lucrative properties. Whether you’re a seasoned professional looking to explore a different type of investment strategy or a new investor looking to start building your portfolio, Jake and Gino’s system will provide you with the step-by-step guide you need to secure your financial independence.

    In addition to fine-tuning and streamlining the prose and the overall presentation, the authors have comprehensively updated the text and the applications to reflect recent economic developments and topics of current interest. Students in particular will find the Study Guide, with its practice questions, exercises, and problems, to be an excellent source of study support and extra review material. It is available in both a one- and a two-volume edition.

    The stunning rise, fall, and rescue of Wall Street in the bubble-and-bailout era was the coming-out party for the network of looters who sit at the nexus of American political and economic power. The grifter class—made up of the largest players in the financial industry and the politicians who do their bidding—has been growing in power for a generation, transferring wealth upward through increasingly complex financial mechanisms and political maneuvers. The crisis was only one terrifying manifestation of how they’ve hijacked America’s political and economic life.Rolling Stone’s Matt Taibbi here unravels the whole fiendish story, digging beyond the headlines to get into the deeper roots and wider implications of the rise of the grifters. He traces the movement’s origins to the cult of Ayn Rand and her most influential—and possibly weirdest—acolyte, Alan Greenspan, and offers fresh reporting on the backroom deals that decided the winners and losers in the government bailouts. He uncovers the hidden commodities bubble that transferred billions of dollars to Wall Street while creating food shortages around the world, and he shows how finance dominates politics, from the story of investment bankers auctioning off America’s infrastructure to an inside account of the high-stakes battle for health-care reform—a battle the true reformers lost. Finally, he tells the story of Goldman Sachs, the “vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity.” Taibbi has combined deep sources, trailblazing reportage, and provocative analysis to create the most lucid, emotionally galvanizing, and scathingly funny account yet written of the ongoing political and financial crisis in America. This is essential reading for anyone who wants to understand the labyrinthine inner workings of politics and finance in this country, and the profound consequences for us all.

    Stan was a "Washington Post" financial reporter for 20 years, and after he retired, he wrote the "Post"'s 'Retirement Journal' column for which he was nominated for a Pulitzer Prize. What I like about Stan's book is that it combines good financial planning information with his story about his own retirement. He's candid about the mistakes he made and how he'd do things differently with the benefit of hindsight." --Steve Vernon, columnist, CBSMoneyWatch.com"Everyone in the workforce today should read this book!" --Horace B. Deets, former Executive Director, AARPAward-winning "Washington Post" retirement columnist Stan Hinden's bestselling "How to Retire Happy" helps you decide if you can retire now, or whether you have to stay on the job for a few more years.This trusted guide has been fully updated to address the stomachchurning issues created by financial market volatility and the economic recession.Will you have enough money for health care? Do you need--and can you afford--a longterm care policy? How much income can your savings produce?The third edition of "How to Retire Happy" provides answers to these questions--plus all-new information about: A new menu of Medigap insurance policies New strategies for maximizing Social Security income Making your money last through a long retirementApply Hinden's reliable, easy-to-understand advice and experience a happy, healthful retirement for years and years to come.

    Some of the objects are described by future historians; others through found materials, short stories, or dialogues. All come from a very real future.

    There's been no reason to look for another." --Warren Buffett, on the writings of Benjamin GrahamLegendary investing author and philosopher Benjamin Graham lived through interesting times. Soon after his graduation from Columbia College, the nation entered the First World War. As the stock market fluctuated in wild dips and peaks, the government seized control of the railroad industry, inflation and interest rates rose dramatically, and economic depression loomed on the horizon.During these events--and perhaps inspired by them--Graham began writing articles for The Magazine of Wall Street, putting to paper his earliest ideas on value investing and security analysis.For the first time, these important works have been anthologized into a single volume. Benjamin Graham on Investing is a treasure trove of rare and out-of-print articles that document the early flashes of genius from a man whose ideas and theories would revolutionize investment philosophy and inspire the careers of such luminaries as Warren Buffett, Seth Klarman, Charlie Munger, and countless other top-tier investors.The early works of Benjamin Graham have never been as relevant as they are today. The world's markets are undergoing changeon a scale not unlike that of Graham's era. David Darst, one of the world's most respected experts on asset allocation, provides insightful analyses connecting Graham's articles to events today., i>Benjamin Graham on Investing is a timeless classic that continues to have relevance more than 30 years after the author's death.

    Thing 4: The washing machine has changed the world more than the Internet. Thing 5: Assume the worst about people, and you get the worst. Thing 13: Making rich people richer doesn't make the rest of us richer.If you've wondered how we did not see the economic collapse coming, Ha-Joon Chang knows the answer: We didn't ask what they didn't tell us about capitalism. This is a lighthearted book with a serious purpose: to question the assumptions behind the dogma and sheer hype that the dominant school of neoliberal economists-the apostles of the freemarket-have spun since the Age of Reagan.Chang, the author of the international bestseller Bad Samaritans, is one of the world's most respected economists, a voice of sanity-and wit-in the tradition of John Kenneth Galbraith and Joseph Stiglitz. 23 Things They Don't Tell You About Capitalism equips readers with an understanding of how global capitalism works-and doesn't. In his final chapter, "How to Rebuild the World," Chang offers a vision of how we can shape capitalism to humane ends, instead of becoming slaves of the market.Ha-Joon Chang teaches in the Faculty of Economics at the University of Cambridge. His books include the bestselling Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism. His Kicking Away the Ladder received the 2003 Myrdal Prize, and, in 2005, Chang was awarded the Leontief Prize for Advancing the Frontiers of Economic Thought.

    This easy to understand guide takes you through the world of economics from understanding micro- and macroeconomics to demystifying complex topics such as capitalism and recession.This updated edition walks you through the history, principles and theories of economics as well as breaking down all the complicated terminology, leaving you clued up on economics in no time.Getting to grips - explore the science of economics and how people deal with scarcityKeeping an eye on it - learn all about macroeconomics and how economists keep track of everythingWatch patterns emerge - understand why monitoring consumer behaviour is vital and all you need to know about microeconomicsYour recession guide - expert advice on recessions and a detailed look at why they occurOpen the book and find:Why you should care about economics and how it affects youTools to help you understand a recessionA guide to seductive economic fallaciesAll you need to know on monetary and fiscal policiesHow supply and demand can be made easyWhy it's vital to track consumer choicesAn in-depth look at a profit-maximising firm and the core of capitalismGuidance on property rights and wrongsLearn to:Look through economic history and spot the trendsUnderstand micro- and macroeconomicsGet to grips with consumer behaviour and its influence on the economySpot the signs of a recession and see how economic decisions affect you

    Today, they call - or Skype - home the moment their flight has landed, and that's just the beginning. Thanks to cheap travel and easy communication, immigrants everywhere stay in intimate contact with their native countries, creating powerful cross-border networks.In Borderless Economics, Robert Guest, The Economist's Business Editor, travels through dozens of countries and 44 American states, observing how these networks create wealth, spread ideas and foster innovation. He shows how: * Brainy Indians in America collaborate with brainy Indians in India to build $70 fridges and $300 houses * Young Chinese study in the West and then return home (where they're known as "sea turtles"), infecting China with ideas that will eventually turn it democratic * The so-called "brain drain" - the flow of educated migrants from poorcountries to rich ones - actually reduces global poverty *America's unique ability to attract and absorb migrants lets it tap into the energy of all the world's diaspora networks. So despite its current woes, if the United States keeps its borders open, it will remain the world's most powerful nation indefinitely. With on-the-ground reporting from Asia, Africa, Europe and even Idaho, this book examines how migration, for the all the disruption it causes, makes the world wealthier and happier.

      You’ve had a successful career and you’re no couch potato—but how do you make the transition to a new phase of your life? From one of the original creators of the popular Franklin Day Planner, the former Chairman and CEO of Franklin Covey Co., and the recognized “Father of Time Management,” this guide shows you how you can move from your previous work, simplify life, and enter a new world of purposeful retirement and good living.   Create a retirement that is meaningful and inspiring Make intelligent and anxiety-free retirement planning choices Learn from the lives and experiences of people who have found their pathway to happy retirement Discover secrets to aging well   This distinguished author, speaker, and businessman combines wit and enthusiasm with compelling principles that inspire lasting personal change. Draw from a lifetime of wisdom to discover your true passion, re-imagine your life, and try new possibilities.

    Maybe you’ve always dreamt of doing your own thing and earning money under your own terms but are too scared to take the leap. Or perhaps you feel trapped in a job that pays the bills but just doesn’t do it for you. You’re not alone. Our relationship with money is linear; we’re taught more is better, but that’s about it! We rarely question what financial success and freedom mean for us personally or educate ourselves on how to be smart with our money and earn it in the way that we want. Starting with the most important question ‘what does a plentiful and financially successful life mean to YOU?’, this book will educate and empower the reader with practical activities and digestible advice on the topics of Understanding, Earning, Making, Investing and Spending your money. From getting on the property ladder, negotiating your way through a career pivot, to getting a pay rise, making an investment or starting the business you’ve always dreamed about, this book is a blueprint for financial freedom. "