Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    The chafing restrictions of a typical upbringing in upper-class, small town Alabama simply did not apply to Zelda, who was described as an unusual child and permitted to roam the streets with little supervision. Zelda refused to blossom into a typical 'Southern belle' on anyone's terms but her own and while still in high school enjoyed the status of a local celebrity for her shocking behavior. Everybody in town knew the name Zelda Sayre. Queen of the Montgomery social scene, Zelda had a different beau ready and willing to show her a good time for every day of the week. Before meeting F. Scott Fitzgerald, Zelda's life was a constant pursuit of pleasure. With little thought for the future and no responsibilities to speak of, Zelda committed herself fully to the mantra that accompanied her photo in her high school graduation book: "Why should all life be work, when we all can borrow. Let's think only of today, and not worry about tomorrow." But for now Zelda was still in rehearsal for her real life to begin, a life she was sure would be absolutely extraordinary. Zelda Sayre married F. Scott Fitzgerald on the 3rd of April 1920 and left sleepy Montgomery behind in order to dive headfirst into the shimmering, glamourous life of a New York socialite. With the publication of Scott's first novel, This Side of Paradise, Zelda found herself thrust into the limelight as the very epitome of the Flapper lifestyle. Concerned chiefly with fashion, wild parties and flouting social expectations, Zelda and Scott became icons of the Jazz Age, the personification of beauty and success. What Zelda and Scott shared was a romantic sense of self-importance that assured them that their life of carefree leisure and excess was the only life really worth living. Deeply in love, the Fitzgeralds were like to sides of the same coin, each reflecting the very best and worst of each other. While the world fell in love with the image of the Fitzgeralds they saw on the cover of magazines, behind the scenes the Fitzgerald's marriage could not withstand the tension of their creative arrangement. Zelda was Scott's muse and he mercilessly mined the events of their life for material for his books. Scott claimed Zelda's memories, things she said, experiences she had and even passages from her diary as his possessions and used them to form the basis of his fictional works. Zelda had a child but the domestic sphere offered no comfort or purpose for her. The Flapper lifestyle was not simply a phase she lived through, it formed the very basis of her character and once the parties grew dull, the Fitzgeralds' drinking became destructive and Zelda's beauty began to fade, the world held little allure for her. Zelda sought reprieve in work and tried to build a career as a ballet dancer. When that didn't work out she turned to writing but was forbidden by Scott from using her own life as material. Convinced that she would never leave her mark on the world as deeply or expressively as Scott had, Zelda retreated into herself and withdrew from the people she knew in happier times. The later years of Zelda's life were marred by her detachment from reality as, diagnosed with schizophrenia, Zelda spent the last eighteen years of her life living in and out of psychiatric hospitals. As Scott's life unraveled due to alcohol abuse, Zelda looked back on the years they had spent together, young and wild and beautiful, as the best of her life. She may have been right but she was wrong about one thing, Zelda did leave her mark on the world and it was a deep and expressive mark that no one could have left but her. Zelda Fitzgerald: The Biography

    Their achievements, rich culture and craftsmanship contributed greatly to our world today, and their explorations helped make up the boundaries of nations. The Vikings: Raiders, Explorers, and Seafaring Warriors by author Lance Hightower will give you a glimpse of the battles that raged for more than 300 years, sparked by the cultural and religious differences that were the trigger for warring with the Franks, England and Ireland, and for trade and exploration into the Muslim empire, the Byzantine Empire, as far as Russia, Spain and North America.They came from Sweden, Norway and Denmark, not as one army, but as separate tribes who assaulted their way through Christendom as retaliation for the destruction of their holy icon. They came from the sea in a way that ingeniously allowed them to go where no conventional ship dared, and they were able to navigate waters without benefit of the sun to guide them. They used boats that made ship-building history – light, fast, and equally efficient in shallow rivers and mighty oceans.They terrorized, traded, bartered, took slaves, colonized, fought and died all in the name of Odin, god of the battle-slain. Perhaps in the end, they fought more for territory and riches than principle, but the history of the Vikings will always remain as one of the most enthralling of all Ages, where honor was crucial, death on the battlefield was preferred to idleness, and the stormy pantheon of their gods still held the greatest influence in their lives.The brilliant sagas come to life with snippets of modern translations, told like tales of old should be told, with dread, heroics and excitement. Lance Hightower combines his own expertise with the latest archeological findings and information given to us from ancient text to present a first-rate portrayal of the Vikings in an easy-to-read format that is a refreshing change from the usual dry delivery of history.

    Kim Il Sung wasted little time before plunging the country into a futile war which cost more than two million people their lives. His son, Kim Jong Il, would wallow in obscene luxury as North Korea suffered one of the Twentieth Century’s most terrible famines. Kim Jong Un has only recently ascended to power. However, he has already ordered his own uncle’s execution by antiaircraft gun. The North Korean people are told that they are the most fortunate in the world. In reality they are the most oppressed. North Korea is a country where criticising the government, or even watching a foreign film, can lead to imprisonment and death.North Korea: A Bare Bones History tells the story of one of the world’s most enigmatic nations. It’s an extraordinary history of war, assassination, kidnapping, terrorism, and an attempt to decapitate a rival head of state.

    This well-established two-book course is designed for class teaching and private study leading to GCSE examinations in mathematics and further Mathematics at A Level.

     Stress is a lot like love – hard to define, but you know it when you feel it. This book will explore the nature of stress and how it infiltrates every level of your life, including the physical, emotional, cognitive, relational and even spiritual. You’ll find ways to nurture resilience, rationality and relaxation in your every day life, and learn how to loosen the grip of worry and anxiety. Through techniques that get to the heart of your unique stress response, and an exploration of how stress can affect your relationships, you'll discover how to control stress instead of letting it control you. This book shows you how. But this book is not just another “anti-stress” book. Here, we will not be concerned with only reducing the symptoms of stress. Rather, we'll try to understand exactly what stress is and the role it plays in our lives. We'll attempt to dig deep to really understand the real sources of our anxiety and how to take ownership of them. Using the power of habit and several techniques for smoothing out the stressful wrinkles in our day-to-day lives, we'll move towards a real-world solution to living with less stress, more confidence and a deep spiritual resilience that will insulate you from the inevitable pressures of life. By adopting a trusting, open and relaxed attitude, we'll bring something more of ourselves to relationships of all kinds. This book will take a look at dating and relationships without stress and worry, as well as ways to bring tranquility and balance into your home and family life. Again, this book is not about eradicating stress from your life forever. We'll end with a consideration of the positive side of negative thinking, and how we can use stress and worry to our advantage. We will address physical, emotional, relational, spiritual, and cognitive and behavioral symptoms of stress. And while most stress-management solutions offer relief for symptoms in only one or two of the above areas, this book will show you how all five areas are important, and a successful stress solution will touch on each of them. Here Is What You Will Learn After Reading This Book: A deeper understanding of what stress really is and the role it plays in our lives The real sources of our anxiety and how to take ownership of them A real-world solution to living with less stress Dating and relationships without stress and worry Ways to bring tranquility and balance into your home and family life And much more! Tags: worrying, stop worrying, overcome worry, how to stop worrying, social anxiety, anxiety, overcome social anxiety, relationship jealousy, overcome relationship jealousy, insecurity, insecure, stop being insecure, stress, negativity, overcome stress, stop negative thinking, overcome negative thinking, negative thinking, start living, de-stress, be happy, happiness, worry free, worry cure, living again, relaxation, anxiety relief, stress relief, worry, relax, worry free life, healthy living, stress free, stress relief, relieve stress, worry habit, break the worry habit, how to break the worry habit, codependency, codependency guide, living stress free, no more worrying, stop worry, worry, worry free

    

    Their father abused all three of them in the family home throughout their childhood. In 1989, the sisters made the brave decision to bring charges against their father and, in 1990, the state took a successful case against him. He was convicted and imprisoned.Click, Click is the story of their abuse; the exposure of a man prolific in his paedophilia; and an Irish childhood lost in a dysfunctional, abusive and torturous environment. Importantly, however, it is also the story of three women's healing; their coming to terms with their abuse, and their forgiveness of themselves and others. The Kavanagh sisters have refused to allow their abuse to define them. With fierce humour, insight and honesty, they now share their story and show that with love and determination, you can indeed conquer all.

    With little prelude she is thrown into the deep end of a gritty farming life in a man's world. A life of hard work on untamed lands, a two year odyssey through the outback, and months spent in a remote Aboriginal community, reveal to Sue the very character of the Australian landscape. This is the story of one woman's metamorphosis, from timid, imaginative child to resilient, worldly woman - a profound journey of self discovery through tragedy, unfettered and often life-threatening adventure, and overwhelming joy.

    maritime industry hit rock bottom starting in the early 1980's, right around the time the author was graduating from the California Maritime Academy. Even in his yearbook it warned about how bad things were—it was a time of cost cutting, reduced wages, desperate shipping companies and a lack of jobs. Eventually he made his way out to sea as both an able-bodied seaman and as a third mate. He saw first-hand what it was like out there; from the crazy captains to the weary sailors, and from the bad food to the dangerous working conditions. This book covers it all, and while the ships he sailed on were all scrapped long ago, the stories of the industry and what it took to make it on them, are remembered. This is his story.

    After losing their small business and life savings to the government’s unfathomable shutdown, the author and her husband are forced to sell their home and move into a travel trailer. Still reeling from financial loss and the deaths of two of their beloved dogs, the pair embark on a new life in a trailer park, populated with some of the most unconventional characters you’d ever hope not to meet. There’s Gretchen, the park’s unsympathetic and conniving manager, and her puny, perverted husband, Lloyd, who “maintains” the park grounds and who gives pool algae a bad name. Daisy and Lonnie May are the author’s closest neighbors, and are, perhaps, the park’s most devoted couple. Only Daisy May happens to be Lonnie’s dog. Trailer Dogs will make you laugh, cry, and maybe even a little angry. But it will never make you bored.

    All of the cases end in murder. The stories start with The Black Widow of Laporte, Indiana which is the story of.Belle Gunness and her use of the want ads in the early 1900's. We work our way through the 20th century with The French Bluebeard, The Bogeyman, The Torch Murderer, The Bluebeard of Quiet Dell, The Lonely Hearts Killers, It's A Family Affair, The Lonely Hearts Husband Killer, Harv the Hammer and The Glamour Girl Killer. The final section of the book features nine cases where Craigslist ads have resulted in murder. There are more than 80 pictures throughout the book.

    Whether you're carving evil messages into your coworker's banana peel or telling your kids that, yes, raisins are actually dehydrated people, there's a certain, sinister-yet-fun draw to really messing with people. In Perhaps I’ve Said Too Much (the much anticipated follow-up to the heralded, award-winning Things Go Wrong For Me), Rodney Lacroix gives the reader some insight on what it's like to live the prankster life. No one is safe, including Rodney himself as not all of his antics go entirely as planned. Join him as he spins some yarns, gives you some new ideas and lets you relive the catastrophic consequences of jokes gone terribly wrong. Complete with original hand-drawn artwork and graphics, one-two punch Brain Nuggets, and the ever-popular Draw Something Files, Perhaps will not disappoint.* (Assumes you are an immature child who enjoys potty humor and making fart noises with your armpits.)

    Necrophiliac. Kidnapper. Killer.The stories of serial killers often begin with terrible upbringings and sad events of trauma, but not all have such unfortunate beginnings. Some simply develop their evil on their own and become tainted without anyone realizing it.Jeffrey Dahmer was a man described by his own father as the result of a child becoming lost in the maelstrom while nobody paid attention, of a child who was strange and apathetic but who nobody bothered to ask why......The results were catastrophic.Seventeen men lost their lives and were defiled even after death because of the desires of a neglected young boy who just wanted to fulfill his needs. The following is the tale of said child, the same young man who grew up to become the infamous Milwaukee Cannibal, one of the worst serial killers in humanity's history.Jeffrey Dahmer: The Gruesome True Story of a Hungry Cannibalistic Rapist and Necrophiliac Serial Killer (Vol 3) is a book that recounts the tale of the Milwaukee Cannibal, a man capable of committing the most truly degrading acts on his victims before and even after death; a man who to his last days - and long after - still haunts the city of Milwaukee with the memories of his horrific murders.Be warned, reader, you aren't just about to read about Jeffrey Dahmer and his acts.You are about to walk into his very mind.

    Book by Waring, Chris