Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    At the time, and for more than a decade after, Greiling was a Minnesota state legislator who struggled, along with her husband, to navigate and improve the state’s inadequate mental health system. Fix What You Can is an illuminating and frank account of caring for a person with a mental illness, told by a parent and advocate.   Greiling describes challenges shared by many families, ranging from the practical (medication compliance, housing, employment) to the heartbreaking—suicide attempts, victimization, and illicit drug use. Greiling confronts the reality that some people with serious mental illness may be dangerous and reminds us that medication works—if taken.  The book chronicles her efforts to pass legislation to address problems in the mental health system, including obstacles to parental access to information and insufficient funding for care and research. It also recounts Greiling’s painful memories of her grandmother, who was confined in an institution for twenty-three years—recollections that strengthen her determination that Jim’s treatment be more humane. Written with her son’s cooperation, Fix What You Can offers hard-won perspective, practical advice, and useful resources through a brave and personal story that takes the long view of what success means when coping with mental illness.

     Read each year around the seder table, the Haggadah recounts through prayer, song, and ritual the extraordinary story of Exodus, when Moses led the Israelites out of slavery in Egypt to wander the desert for forty years before reaching the Promised Land. Now, Jonathan Safran Foer has orchestrated a new way of experiencing and understanding one of our oldest, most timeless, and sacred stories, with a new translation of the traditional text by Nathan Englander and provocative commentary by major Jewish writers and thinkers Jeffrey Goldberg, Lemony Snicket, Rebecca Newberger Goldstein, and Nathaniel Deutsch. Ravishingly designed and illustrated by the acclaimed Israeli artist and calligrapher Oded Ezer, New American Haggadah is an utterly unique and absorbing prayer book, the first of its kind, that brings together some of the preeminent voices of our time. "The best book of modern religious thought in recent memory." --The Millions "What makes this haggadah shine is the combination of commentary, design, and illustration." --Financial Times

    David J. Lieberman, introduces a wonderful right-to-the-point book that shows readers how to put an end to boundary issues once and for all!A work colleague with whom you have only a casual relationship asks you to co-sign a loan for him . . . your neighbor asks you to keep her antisocial, flea-riddled cat for the weekend — again. We've all faced sticky situations like these — unreasonable demands on our time and inappropriate requests from family, friends, co-workers or casual acquaintances. We want to say No. We have the right to say No — always. And yet we don't. Maybe you tell yourself that you don’t want to make waves or ruffle feathers, or that it’s simply not worth it; but part of you simmers with anger and frustration that you didn’t speak up and do something— anything.Isn't it ironic how a two-year-old can bark a resounding and guilt-free NO! without batting an eye, yet we grown-ups often find ourselves saying Yes when we mean to say No? Or we say "Let me think about it . . .” and agonize for weeks over how to say, inevitably, No. We've all had our share of freeloaders, mooches, encroachers, interlopers, high-maintenance acquaintances — many of whom are repeat offenders. We've all had to deal with people who ask for favors that are inappropriate or unreasonable because they exceed the boundaries of our relationship with them. And we think, Why doesn't he realize he's crossing the line? The answer is: Because he doesn't know where the line is, or he doesn't care. The problem, as you're about to learn, is leaky boundaries. Some people have such permeable, poorly-defined boundaries that they have no concept of where they end and you begin. Some people will take No for an answer and that's the end of it. But some people don't. What do you do when the person on the other end of your No flat out refuses to accept your No?You'll discover exactly what to say as well as learn the underlying psychology that motivates them to always ask, and you to always give in!

    BROWN BOARDS WITH GOLD GILTING.

    He pleaded Not Guilty. Each of Shipman's alleged victims was middle-aged or elderly and each was his patient and neighbour. The macabre exhumations of some of the bodies devastated the suburban community of Hyde in Greater Manchester, and it is the authors' inside knowledge of the region that provides the context for their investigation of the case.

    Written by three leaders belonging to different faiths, the book explores in accessible language the mythic quality and the teachings of reconciliation that are embedded in the Torah, the Qur'an, and the Bible.

    . . . Transcending Loss will be a great blessing on your lifetime journey of recovery."--Harold Bloomfield, MD, psychiatrist and author of How to Survive the Loss of Love and How to Heal DepressionDeath doesn't end a relationship, it simply forges a new type of relationship--one based not on physical presence but on memory, spirit, and love.There are many wonderful books available that address acute grief and how to cope with it. But they often focus on crisis management and imply that there is an "end" to mourning, and fail to acknowledge grief's ongoing impact and how it changes through the years."This is a book about death and grief, yes, but more important, it is a book about love and hope. I have learned from my experience and interviews with courageous people about pain, struggle, resiliency, and meaning. Their stories show over time, you can learn to transcend even in spite of the pain."--from the introduction by Ashley Davis Bush, LCSW

    This funny, practical book by Andy Cope, the Dr of Happiness, will show you how to transform your thinking, change gear and find a fresh new perspective that will leave you better focused on the things that matter, healthier and a great deal happier.ABOUT THIS SERIESLittle Books are accessible and engaging books with a focus on personal development and business topics, delivering quick, outcome-focused results, ideal for self-improvement junkies, commuters, or business readers.

    It examines the many roles and functions community counselors perform, the variety of settings in which their work is done, and how that work differs from one client population to another.

     Remember what coaching's really about. It's about looking for ways to touch the soul, and having someone's life change. Coaching simply can't be sold like other things are sold. And that turns out to be good news. Once you begin practicing true connection, you become successful. In 37 Ways to BOOST Your Coaching Practice, Steve Chandler shows just what steps to take - and the 17 lies to avoid - to give your prospective clients a powerful experience of the work you do. Learn to fill your practice by moving beyond coaching-as-a-concept. Creating clients happens one coaching conversation at a time, one true connection at a time.

    By embracing four fundamental premises and putting into practice the author's many helpful and practical suggestions, you'll acquire the skills and insights necessary for turning around even the most troublesome relationship. What you need to keep in mind is that: (1) nothing in your life happens randomly and your difficulties have a deeper purpose; (2) frustration and even emotional pain are as necessary for your personal and spiritual growth as love and joy; (3) transforming enmity and completing unfinished business may be the most important skills you can learn in life; and (4) when you make an effort to work on your inner self, your outer relationships will be transformed.        This groundbreaking book draws upon state-of-the-art psychological principles and timeless spiritual practices from all traditions. Filled with enlightening exercises and entertaining stories, Thank You for Being Such a Pain will forever change the way you see the difficult people in your life . . . as well as the way you see yourself.

    In 1654, twenty-three Jewish families arrived in New Amsterdam (now New York) aboard a French privateer. They were the Sephardim, members of a proud orthodox sect that had served as royal advisors and honored professionals under Moorish rule in Spain and Portugal but were then exiled from their homeland by intolerant monarchs. A small, closed, and intensely private community, the Sephardim soon established themselves as businessmen and financiers, earning great wealth. They became powerful forces in society, with some, like banker Haym Salomon, even providing financial support to George Washington’s army during the American Revolution.   Yet despite its major role in the birth and growth of America, this extraordinary group has remained virtually impenetrable and unknowable to outsiders. From author of “Our Crowd” Stephen Birmingham, The Grandees delves into the lives of the Sephardim and their historic accomplishments, illuminating the insulated world of these early Americans. Birmingham reveals how these families, with descendants including poet Emma Lazarus, Barnard College founder Annie Nathan Meyer, and Supreme Court Justice Benjamin N. Cardozo, influenced—and continue to influence—American society.

    Though the hours were long and the program struggled for funding, sailing gave Vandemoer’s life shape and meaning.But early one morning, everything came crashing down when Vandemoer, still in his pajamas, opened the door to find FBI and IRS agents on his doorstep. He quickly learned that a recruiter named Rick Singer had used him as a stooge in a sophisticated scheme designed to take advantage of college coaches and play to the endless appetite for university fundraising—and wealthy parents looking for an edge for their college-bound children.Vandemoer was summarily fired, kicked out of campus housing, his children booted from campus daycare. The next year of his life was a Kafkaesque hellscape, and though he was an innocent man who never received a dime was the first person to be convicted in what became known as the Varsity Blues scandal.A true story that reads like a suspense novel, Rigged Justice lays bare how a sophisticated scheme could take advantage of college coaches and university money—and how one family became collateral damage in a large government investigation that dominated national headlines.

    The method employed is to take the obscurantist vocabulary of monotheism and translate it into plain language. In doing so, the book attempts to show that god worshippers themselves do not understand the things they claim to believe, and by which they live their lives. For the reader who believes in god, this polemical little volume may help them to understand why secularists get so frustrated and infuriated when in debate with god worshippers. For the secularist, this book is a reminder that not everyone is susceptible to reasoned argument. The reminder is a timely one for those who live in an era of the resurgence of Islamic Jihad. A clear understanding of the irrationality of monotheism is something which matters urgently when confronted by the global rise of religious fascism. What is said in this little book will no doubt be found impolite and overly-provocative by those authoritarian people within the politically correct establishment who conflate morality with niceness. They will probably utter the familiar refrain that we ought not to denigrate other people’s deeply and sincerely held beliefs. Instead we should live in a permanent state of apology for the crime of having minds of our own. But religions are no more above criticism than any other ideologies. They have no entitlement to a privileged status. Besides which, large numbers of god worshippers feel free to denigrate and insult everyone else’s deeply and sincerely held beliefs, so why should they have special permission to be hypocrites? Topics covered: 01. God 02. Prayer 03. Worship 04. God the Infinite 05. Immortality and Heaven 06. Soul / Spirit 07. Salvation 08. Faith 09. Spreading The Word 10. Theocracy 11. Theocracy and Nuclear Armageddon 12. God, Guilty of Genocide 13. Religion and Morality are Mutually Exclusive 14. God worship is Immoral 15. God worship is Obscene 16. Everything is God’s Fault 17. If it’s in The Book, then it Must be True 18. Claiming Incomprehensible Beliefs 19. Is Islamism the New Fascism? 20. The Moderates