Rather than a "how to" for hands-on techies, the book entices lay-readers and experts alike by covering new case studies and the latest state-of-the-art techniques.You have been predicted — by companies, governments, law enforcement, hospitals, and universities. Their computers say, "I knew you were going to do that!" These institutions are seizing upon the power to predict whether you're going to click, buy, lie, or die.Why? For good reason: predicting human behavior combats financial risk, fortifies healthcare, conquers spam, toughens crime fighting, and boosts sales.How? Prediction is powered by the world's most potent, booming unnatural resource: data. Accumulated in large part as the by-product of routine tasks, data is the unsalted, flavorless residue deposited en masse as organizations churn away. Surprise! This heap of refuse is a gold mine. Big data embodies an extraordinary wealth of experience from which to learn.Predictive analytics unleashes the power of data. With this technology, the computer literally learns from data how to predict the future behavior of individuals. Perfect prediction is not possible, but putting odds on the future — lifting a bit of the fog off our hazy view of tomorrow — means pay dirt.In this rich, entertaining primer, former Columbia University professor and Predictive Analytics World founder Eric Siegel reveals the power and perils of prediction: -What type of mortgage risk Chase Bank predicted before the recession. -Predicting which people will drop out of school, cancel a subscription, or get divorced before they are even aware of it themselves. -Why early retirement decreases life expectancy and vegetarians miss fewer flights. -Five reasons why organizations predict death, including one health insurance company. -How U.S. Bank, European wireless carrier Telenor, and Obama's 2012 campaign calculated the way to most strongly influence each individual. -How IBM's Watson computer used predictive modeling to answer questions and beat the human champs on TV's Jeopardy! -How companies ascertain untold, private truths — how Target figures out you're pregnant and Hewlett-Packard deduces you're about to quit your job. -How judges and parole boards rely on crime-predicting computers to decide who stays in prison and who goes free. -What's predicted by the BBC, Citibank, ConEd, Facebook, Ford, Google, IBM, the IRS, Match.com, MTV, Netflix, Pandora, PayPal, Pfizer, and Wikipedia. A truly omnipresent science, predictive analytics affects everyone, every day. Although largely unseen, it drives millions of decisions, determining whom to call, mail, investigate, incarcerate, set up on a date, or medicate.Predictive analytics transcends human perception. This book's final chapter answers the riddle: What often happens to you that cannot be witnessed, and that you can't even be sure has happened afterward — but that can be predicted in advance?Whether you are a consumer of it — or consumed by it — get a handle on the power of Predictive Analytics.

    Designed for two-semester, beginning graduate courses in Mathematical Statistics, and for senior undergraduate Mathematics, Statistics, and Actuarial Science majors, this text retains its ongoing features and continues to provide students with background material.

    Peek behind the counter and learn how sportsbooks operate. Combine that insider knowledge with why-didn’t-I-think-of-that sports betting logic, and you have the winning formula.Ed Miller is a best-selling (over 300,000 copies sold) author of books on poker and gambling. This is his first book on sports betting, but maybe his favorite book to write so far.Matthew Davidow is a sports modeler, using proprietary methods to beat major sports betting markets for over 15 years, and co-founding two leading private sports analytics firms along the way.What people are saying about The Logic Of Sports Betting:"Matt and Ed are two of the smartest minds in sports betting." - Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor"As a sportsbook employee for 30-plus years, I find it difficult to read or watch anything about sports betting. But I could not put The Logic Of Sports Betting down. It’s that good." - Robert Walker, Las Vegas bookmaker

    What should we do, or leave undone, in a day or a lifetime? How much messiness should we accept? What balance of new activities and familiar favorites is the most fulfilling? These may seem like uniquely human quandaries, but they are not: computers, too, face the same constraints, so computer scientists have been grappling with their version of such issues for decades. And the solutions they've found have much to teach us.In a dazzlingly interdisciplinary work, acclaimed author Brian Christian and cognitive scientist Tom Griffiths show how the algorithms used by computers can also untangle very human questions. They explain how to have better hunches and when to leave things to chance, how to deal with overwhelming choices and how best to connect with others. From finding a spouse to finding a parking spot, from organizing one's inbox to understanding the workings of memory, Algorithms to Live By transforms the wisdom of computer science into strategies for human living.

    Switching from thin tailed to fat tailed distributions requires more than "changing the color of the dress." Traditional asymptotics deal mainly with either n=1 or n=∞, and the real world is in between, under the "laws of the medium numbers"-which vary widely across specific distributions. Both the law of large numbers and the generalized central limit mechanisms operate in highly idiosyncratic ways outside the standard Gaussian or Levy-Stable basins of convergence. A few examples: - The sample mean is rarely in line with the population mean, with effect on "na�ve empiricism," but can be sometimes be estimated via parametric methods. - The "empirical distribution" is rarely empirical. - Parameter uncertainty has compounding effects on statistical metrics. - Dimension reduction (principal components) fails. - Inequality estimators (Gini or quantile contributions) are not additive and produce wrong results. - Many "biases" found in psychology become entirely rational under more sophisticated probability distributions. - Most of the failures of financial economics, econometrics, and behavioral economics can be attributed to using the wrong distributions. This book, the first volume of the Technical Incerto, weaves a narrative around published journal articles.

    It allows one to gain information by discarding information, namely, the individuality of the observations. Stigler s second pillar, information measurement, challenges the importance of big data by noting that observations are not all equally important: the amount of information in a data set is often proportional to only the square root of the number of observations, not the absolute number. The third idea is likelihood, the calibration of inferences with the use of probability. Intercomparison is the principle that statistical comparisons do not need to be made with respect to an external standard. The fifth pillar is regression, both a paradox (tall parents on average produce shorter children; tall children on average have shorter parents) and the basis of inference, including Bayesian inference and causal reasoning. The sixth concept captures the importance of experimental design for example, by recognizing the gains to be had from a combinatorial approach with rigorous randomization. The seventh idea is the residual the notion that a complicated phenomenon can be simplified by subtracting the effect of known causes, leaving a residual phenomenon that can be explained more easily.The Seven Pillars of Statistical Wisdom presents an original, unified account of statistical science that will fascinate the interested layperson and engage the professional statistician."

    Already used by people and companies around the world, many forecast that Bitcoin could radically transform the global economy. The value of a bitcoin has soared from less than a dollar in 2011 to well over $1000 in 2013, with many spikes and crashes along the way. The rise in value has brought Bitcoin into the public eye, but the cryptocurrency still confuses many people. Bitcoin for the Befuddled covers everything you need to know about Bitcoin—what it is, how it works, and how to acquire, store, and use bitcoins safely and securely. You'll also learn about Bitcoin's history, its complex cryptography, and its potential impact on trade and commerce. The book includes a humorous, full-color comic explaining Bitcoin concepts, plus a glossary of terms for easy reference.

    We don't do a chemical analysis on food we eat.Trust and cooperation are the first problems we had to solve before we could become a social species. In the 21st century, they have become the most important problems we need to solve — again. Our global society has become so large and complex that our traditional trust mechanisms no longer work.Bruce Schneier, world-renowned for his level-headed thinking on security and technology, tackles this complex subject head-on. Society can't function without trust, and yet must function even when people are untrustworthy.Liars and Outliers reaches across academic disciplines to develop an understanding of trust, cooperation, and social stability. From the subtle social cues we use to recognize trustworthy people to the laws that punish the noncompliant, from the way our brains reward our honesty to the bank vaults that keep out the dishonest, keeping people cooperative is a delicate balance of rewards and punishments. It's a series of evolutionary tricks, social pressures, legal mechanisms, and physical barriers.In the absence of personal relationships, we have no choice but to substitute security for trust, compliance for trustworthiness. This progression has enabled society to scale to unprecedented complexity, but has also permitted massive global failures.At the same time, too much cooperation is bad. Without some level of rule-breaking, innovation and social progress become impossible. Society stagnates.Today's problems require new thinking, and Liars and Outliers provides that. It is essential that we learn to think clearly about trust. Our future depends on it.

    Never again will you order the Poisson Distribution in a French restaurant!This updated version features all new material.

    It discusses new results, along with applications of probability theory to a variety of problems. The book contains many exercises and is suitable for use as a textbook on graduate-level courses involving data analysis. Aimed at readers already familiar with applied mathematics at an advanced undergraduate level or higher, it is of interest to scientists concerned with inference from incomplete information.

    The complexity of nature's shapes differs in kind, not merely degree, from that of the shapes of ordinary geometry, the geometry of fractal shapes.Now that the field has expanded greatly with many active researchers, Mandelbrot presents the definitive overview of the origins of his ideas and their new applications. The Fractal Geometry of Nature is based on his highly acclaimed earlier work, but has much broader and deeper coverage and more extensive illustrations.

    Well, look no further. This book contains the top Alexa dot questions that you wish you knew. After hours of searching, I have found and compiled the best questions you can ask. Each one has been tested and works perfectly. In this eBook, you'll discover... - Helpful ways to get the most out of your Alexa-enabled device - Fun questions to ask Alexa echo with your friends and family - Tips, tricks, and hours of entertainment with Alexa FREE DOWNLOAD INSIDE: "10 Alexa Skills You Need to Know" Buy this book now for only $.99 to get the most out of your Amazon product!

    The textbook covers all-important workbenches of CATIA V5R17 with a thorough explanation of all commands, options, and their applications to create real-world products. About 55 mechanical engineering industry examples are used as tutorials and an additional 35 as exercises to ensure that the user can relate their knowledge and understand the design techniques used in the industry to design a product. After reading the textbook, the user will be able to create solid parts, assemblies, drawing views with bill of materials, surface models, and Sheet metal components. Also, the user will learn the editing techniques that are essential to make a successful design. In this book, the author emphasizes on the solid modeling techniques that improve the productivity and efficiency of the user. Salient Features of the Textbook Consists of 15 chapters that are organized in a pedagogical sequence. These chapters cover the Sketching, Modeling, Assembly, Drafting, Wireframe and Surface Design, and Generative Sheetmetal workbenches of CATIA V5R17. The first page of every chapter summarizes the topics that will be covered in it. Additional information is provided throughout the book in the form of tips and notes. Self-evaluation test and review questions are provided at the end of each chapter so that the users can assess their knowledge.Free Teaching and Learning Resources Online technical support by contacting techsupport@cadcim.com. All programs used in exercises and examples. Customizable PowerPoint presentations of all chapters in the textbook li>Instructor s Guide with solutions to all review questions and exercises in the textbook. Student projects to enhance the skills Class tests that can be used by faculty in the class To access these free teaching resources, please send your contact information to sales@cadcim.com, mentioning clearly your name, designation, university/college, street street address, city, state, zip, and country.

    From Stephen Levy—the author who made "hackers" a household word—comes this account of a revolution that is already affecting every citizen in the twenty-first century. Crypto tells the inside story of how a group of "crypto rebels"—nerds and visionaries turned freedom fighters—teamed up with corporate interests to beat Big Brother and ensure our privacy on the Internet. Levy's history of one of the most controversial and important topics of the digital age reads like the best futuristic fiction.

    What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.This sixtieth anniversary edition includes not only the original text but also an introduction by Harold Kuhn, an afterword by Ariel Rubinstein, and reviews and articles on the book that appeared at the time of its original publication in the New York Times, tthe American Economic Review, and a variety of other publications. Together, these writings provide readers a matchless opportunity to more fully appreciate a work whose influence will yet resound for generations to come.