He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

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    You may even feel guilty for not enjoying spending time with your child—but how can you when her behavior is abusive toward you and the rest of your family? You need solid skills you can use now to help your daughter and hold your family together.In this important guide, you’ll learn real solutions and strategies based in proven-effective DBT and CBT to help you weather the storm of BPD and restore a sense of normalcy and balance in your life. You’ll find an overview of BPD so you can better understand the driving forces behind your daughter’s difficult behavior. You’ll discover how you can help your daughter get the help she needs while also setting boundaries that foster respect and self-care for you and others in your family. And, most importantly, you’ll learn “emergency parenting techniques” to help you put a stop to abusive patterns and restore peace.If your daughter has BPD and your family is struggling to make it through each day, this book offers essential skills to help you cope and recover a sense of stability.