The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    It all begins with understanding how the world sees you—at your best. How the World Sees You gives you the step-by-step method to describe yourself in just two or three words. This short phrase is your Anthem, the tagline for your personality. Your Anthem guides you like a mission statement, helping you to build your team, write a LinkedIn profile, or captivate an audience.This book includes a private code to unlock one free Fascination Advantage® online assessment. Your customized online report, based on Sally Hogshead's extensive research on what fascinates listeners, will reveal how you fascinate others, includingYour top two Fascination Advantages in communication The personality Archetypes you need on your team to optimize your success The five words to describe your personality's highest valueTo become more successful, you do not have to change who you are—you have to become more of who you are. How the World Sees You reveals who you are at your best so you can create better relationships, grow your business, and become intensely valuable to those who matter most.

    In The Master Algorithm, Pedro Domingos lifts the veil to give us a peek inside the learning machines that power Google, Amazon, and your smartphone. He assembles a blueprint for the future universal learner--the Master Algorithm--and discusses what it will mean for business, science, and society. If data-ism is today's philosophy, this book is its bible.

    The Sociology Book takes on some of humankind's biggest questions: What is society? What makes it tick? Why do we interact in the way that we do with our friends, coworkers, and rivals? The Sociology Book profiles the world's most renowned sociologists and more than 100 of their biggest ideas, including issues of equality, diversity, identity, and human rights; the effects of globalization; the role of institutions; and the rise of urban living in modern societyEasy to navigate and chock-full of key concepts, profiles of major sociological thinkers, and conversation starters galore, this is a must-have, in-a-nutshell guide to some of the most fascinating questions on earth.The Sociology Book is part of the award-winning Big Ideas Simply Explained series, designed to distill big ideas and elusive theories into graspable, memorable concepts, using an approachable graphic treatment and creative typography.

    Simmons advocates a careful approach to the subject, covering such topics as the wave equation, Gauss's hypergeometric function, the gamma function and the basic problems of the calculus of variations in an explanatory fashions - ensuring that students fully understand and appreciate the topics.

    Gordon strips engineering of its confusing technical terms, communicating its founding principles in accessible, witty prose.For anyone who has ever wondered why suspension bridges don't collapse under eight lanes of traffic, how dams hold back--or give way under--thousands of gallons of water, or what principles guide the design of a skyscraper, a bias-cut dress, or a kangaroo, this book will ease your anxiety and answer your questions.Structures: Or Why Things Don't Fall Down is an informal explanation of the basic forces that hold together the ordinary and essential things of this world--from buildings and bodies to flying aircraft and eggshells. In a style that combines wit, a masterful command of his subject, and an encyclopedic range of reference, Gordon includes such chapters as "How to Design a Worm" and "The Advantage of Being a Beam," offering humorous insights in human and natural creation.Architects and engineers will appreciate the clear and cogent explanations of the concepts of stress, shear, torsion, fracture, and compression. If you're building a house, a sailboat, or a catapult, here is a handy tool for understanding the mechanics of joinery, floors, ceilings, hulls, masts--or flying buttresses.Without jargon or oversimplification, Structures opens up the marvels of technology to anyone interested in the foundations of our everyday lives.

    In other words, we have what Julia Galef calls a soldier mindset. From tribalism and wishful thinking, to rationalizing in our personal lives and everything in between, we are driven to defend the ideas we most want to believe--and shoot down those we don't.But if we want to get things right more often, argues Galef, we should train ourselves to have a scout mindset. Unlike the soldier, a scout's goal isn't to defend one side over the other. It's to go out, survey the territory, and come back with as accurate a map as possible. Regardless of what they hope to be the case, above all, the scout wants to know what's actually true.In The Scout Mindset, Galef shows that what makes scouts better at getting things right isn't that they're smarter or more knowledgeable than everyone else. It's a handful of emotional skills, habits, and ways of looking at the world--which anyone can learn. With fascinating examples ranging from how to survive being stranded in the middle of the ocean, to how Jeff Bezos avoids overconfidence, to how superforecasters outperform CIA operatives, to Reddit threads and modern partisan politics, Galef explores why our brains deceive us and what we can do to change the way we think.

    Much-publicized experiments, often underwritten by Silicon Valley entrepreneurs, have been launched at elite universities and in elementary schools in the poorest neighborhoods. Such was the excitement that, in 2012, the New York Times declared the "year of the MOOC." Less than a decade later, that pronouncement seems premature.In Failure to Disrupt: Why Technology Alone Can't Transform Education, Justin Reich delivers a sobering report card on the latest supposedly transformative educational technologies. Reich takes readers on a tour of MOOCs, autograders, computerized "intelligent tutors," and other educational technologies whose problems and paradoxes have bedeviled educators. Learning technologies--even those that are free to access--often provide the greatest benefit to affluent students and do little to combat growing inequality in education. And institutions and investors often favor programs that scale up quickly, but at the expense of true innovation. It turns out that technology cannot by itself disrupt education or provide shortcuts past the hard road of institutional change.Technology does have a crucial role to play in the future of education, Reich concludes. We still need new teaching tools, and classroom experimentation should be encouraged. But successful reform efforts will focus on incremental improvements, not the next killer app.

    The Art of War is far from an anachronism—its pages outline fundamental questions that theorists of war continue to examine today, making it essential reading for any student of military history, strategy, or theory. Machiavelli believed The Art of War to be his most important work.

    It is a collection of 150 brain teasing math riddles and puzzles. Their purpose is to make children think and stretch the mind. They are designed to test logic, lateral thinking as well as memory and to engage the brain in seeing patterns and connections between different things and circumstances. They are laid out in three chapters which get more difficult as you go through the book, in the author’s opinion at least. The answers are at the back of the book if all else fails. These are more difficult riddles and are designed to be attempted by children from 10 years onwards, as well as participation from the rest of the family. Tags: Riddles and brain teasers, riddles and trick questions, riddles book, riddles book for kids, riddles for kids, riddles for kids aged 9-12, riddles and puzzles, jokes and riddles, jokes book, jokes book for kids, jokes children, jokes for kids, jokes kids, puzzle book

    Master Python Programming with a unique Hands-On Project Have you always wanted to learn computer programming but are afraid it'll be too difficult for you? Or perhaps you know other programming languages but are interested in learning the Python language fast? This book is for you. You no longer have to waste your time and money learning Python from lengthy books, expensive online courses or complicated Python tutorials. What this book offers... Python for Beginners Complex concepts are broken down into simple steps to ensure that you can easily master the Python language even if you have never coded before. Carefully Chosen Python Examples Examples are carefully chosen to illustrate all concepts. In addition, the output for all examples are provided immediately so you do not have to wait till you have access to your computer to test the examples. Careful selection of topics Topics are carefully selected to give you a broad exposure to Python, while not overwhelming you with information overload. These topics include object-oriented programming concepts, error handling techniques, file handling techniques and more. Learn The Python Programming Language Fast Concepts are presented in a "to-the-point" style to cater to the busy individual. With this book, you can learn Python in just one day and start coding immediately. How is this book different... The best way to learn Python is by doing. This book includes a complete project at the end of the book that requires the application of all the concepts taught previously. Working through the project will not only give you an immense sense of achievement, it"ll also help you retain the knowledge and master the language. Are you ready to dip your toes into the exciting world of Python coding? This book is for you. With the first edition of this book being a #1 best-selling programming ebook on Amazon for more than a year, you can rest assured that this new and improved edition is the perfect book for you to learn the Python programming language fast. Click the BUY button and download it now. What you'll learn: - What is Python? - What software you need to code and run Python programs? - What are variables? - What are the common data types in Python? - What are Lists and Tuples? - How to format strings - How to accept user inputs and display outputs - How to control the flow of program with loops - How to handle errors and exceptions - What are functions and modules? - How to define your own functions and modules - How to work with external files - What are objects and classes - How to write your own class - What is inheritance - What are properties - What is name mangling .. and more... Finally, you'll be guided through a hands-on project that requires the application of all the topics covered. Click the BUY button and download the book now to start learning Python. Learn it fast and learn it well. Tags: ------------ Python, Object-oriented Python, Python course, Python book, learning Python, Python language, Python examples, Python tutorials, Python programming language, Python coding, Pyth

      Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics, world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

    But how did an obscure Soviet programmer, working on frail, antiquated computers, create a product which has now earned nearly 1 billion in sales? How did a makeshift game turn into a worldwide sensation, which has been displayed at the Museum of Modern Art, inspired a big-budget sci-fi movie, and been played in outer space? A quiet but brilliant young man, Alexey Pajitnov had long nurtured a love for the obscure puzzle game pentominoes, and became obsessed with turning it into a computer game. Little did he know that the project that he labored on alone, hour after hour, would soon become the most addictive game ever made. In this fast-paced business story, reporter Dan Ackerman reveals how Tetris became one of the world's first viral hits, passed from player to player, eventually breaking through the Iron Curtain into the West. British, American, and Japanese moguls waged a bitter fight over the rights, sending their fixers racing around the globe to secure backroom deals, while a secretive Soviet organization named ELORG chased down the game's growing global profits.The Tetris Effect is an homage to both creator and creation, and a must-read for anyone who's ever played the game-which is to say everyone.

    Whether it's improving customer experiences, trying out new business models, or developing new products, even the most experienced managers often get it wrong. This is especially true in the online world, where predicting customer behavior is virtually impossible.Managers can, however, discover whether a new product, service, or business model will fail or succeed--by subjecting it to rigorous experimentation. Think about it. A pharmaceutical company would never introduce a new drug without first conducting a round of experiments based on established scientific protocols. Yet that's essentially what many companies do when they roll out new products and services.As Harvard Business School professor Stefan Thomke shows in this eye-opening and essential book, the "best guess" approach to innovation is changing fast. There are now leading companies that conduct more than ten thousand online controlled experiments annually, engaging millions of users. These organizations have discovered that an "experiment with everything" approach has a big payoff, giving them a considerable competitive advantage.How can you do this at your company? Leaders and managers need to create an "experimentation organization" that masters the science of testing and puts the discipline of experimentation at the center of the innovation process. It used to take companies years to build the infrastructure and develop the expertise to run hundreds of experiments each day. But Thomke shows how, with advances in technology, these capabilities are at the fingertips of almost any business professional. By combining the power of software and the rigor of controlled experiments, today's managers can make better decisions, create better customer experiences, and generate huge financial returns.Filled with engaging and instructive stories of leading experimentation organizations, Experimentation Works will be your guidebook to a truly new way of thinking and innovating.

    Good teaching, we believe, should be creatively tailored to the different learning styles of students and should use strategies that make learning easier. Make It Stick turns fashionable ideas like these on their head. Drawing on recent discoveries in cognitive psychology and other disciplines, the authors offer concrete techniques for becoming more productive learners.Memory plays a central role in our ability to carry out complex cognitive tasks, such as applying knowledge to problems never before encountered and drawing inferences from facts already known. New insights into how memory is encoded, consolidated, and later retrieved have led to a better understanding of how we learn. Grappling with the impediments that make learning challenging leads both to more complex mastery and better retention of what was learned.Many common study habits and practice routines turn out to be counterproductive. Underlining and highlighting, rereading, cramming, and single-minded repetition of new skills create the illusion of mastery, but gains fade quickly. More complex and durable learning come from self-testing, introducing certain difficulties in practice, waiting to re-study new material until a little forgetting has set in, and interleaving the practice of one skill or topic with another. Speaking most urgently to students, teachers, trainers, and athletes, Make It Stick will appeal to all those interested in the challenge of lifelong learning and self-improvement.