Its world-class authors provide guidance on all aspects of Bayesian data analysis and include examples of real statistical analyses, based on their own research, that demonstrate how to solve complicated problems. Changes in the new edition include:Stronger focus on MCMC Revision of the computational advice in Part III New chapters on nonlinear models and decision analysis Several additional applied examples from the authors' recent research Additional chapters on current models for Bayesian data analysis such as nonlinear models, generalized linear mixed models, and more Reorganization of chapters 6 and 7 on model checking and data collectionBayesian computation is currently at a stage where there are many reasonable ways to compute any given posterior distribution. However, the best approach is not always clear ahead of time. Reflecting this, the new edition offers a more pluralistic presentation, giving advice on performing computations from many perspectives while making clear the importance of being aware that there are different ways to implement any given iterative simulation computation. The new approach, additional examples, and updated information make Bayesian Data Analysis an excellent introductory text and a reference that working scientists will use throughout their professional life.

    This is a very old science and its gems have lost their charm for us through everyday use. We have tried in this book to refresh them for you. The main part of the book is made up of problems. The best way to deal with them is: Solve the problem by yourself - compare your solution with the solution in the book (if it exists) - go to the next problem. However, if you have difficulties solving a problem (and some of them are quite difficult), you may read the hint or start to read the solution. If there is no solution in the book for some problem, you may skip it (it is not heavily used in the sequel) and return to it later. The book is divided into sections devoted to different topics. Some of them are very short, others are rather long. Of course, you know arithmetic pretty well. However, we shall go through it once more, starting with easy things. 2 Exchange of terms in addition Let's add 3 and 5: 3+5=8. And now change the order: 5+3=8. We get the same result. Adding three apples to five apples is the same as adding five apples to three - apples do not disappear and we get eight of them in both cases. 3 Exchange of terms in multiplication Multiplication has a similar property. But let us first agree on notation.

    Along the way we’ll learn how selection bias can explain why your boss doesn’t know he sucks (even when everyone else does); how to use Bayes’ Theorem to decide if your partner is cheating on you; and why Mark Zuckerberg should never be used as an example for anything. See the world in a whole new light, and make better decisions and judgements without ever going near a t-test. Think. Think Statistically.

    At the time we were hoping that our approach of writing a book which would be both accessible without mathematical sophistication and portray these exiting new fields in an authentic manner would find an audience. Now we know it did. We know from many reviews and personal letters that the book is used in a wide range of ways: researchers use it to acquaint themselves, teachers use it in college and university courses, students use it for background reading, and there is also a substantial audience of lay people who just want to know what chaos and fractals are about. Every book that is somewhat technical in nature is likely to have a number of misprints and errors in its first edition. Some of these were caught and brought to our attention by our readers. One of them, Hermann Flaschka, deserves to be thanked in particular for his suggestions and improvements. This second edition has several changes. We have taken out the two appendices from the firstedition. At the time of the first edition Yuval Fishers contribution, which we published as an appendix was probably the first complete expository account on fractal image compression. Meanwhile, Yuvals book Fractal Image Compression: Theory and Application appeared and is now the publication to refer to.

    This book examines the huge scope of mathematical areas explored and developed by Euler, which includes number theory, combinatorics, geometry, complex variables and many more. The information known to Euler over 300 years ago is discussed, and many of his advances are reconstructed. Readers will be left in no doubt about the brilliance and pervasive influence of Euler's work.

    According to theorists, the missing six are curled up in bizarre structures known as Calabi-Yau manifolds. In The Shape of Inner Space, Shing-Tung Yau, the man who mathematically proved that these manifolds exist, argues that not only is geometry fundamental to string theory, it is also fundamental to the very nature of our universe.Time and again, where Yau has gone, physics has followed. Now for the first time, readers will follow Yau’s penetrating thinking on where we’ve been, and where mathematics will take us next. A fascinating exploration of a world we are only just beginning to grasp, The Shape of Inner Space will change the way we consider the universe on both its grandest and smallest scales.

    The aim of a course in real analysis should be to challenge and improve mathematical intuition rather than to verify it. The philosophy of this book is to focus attention on questions which give analysis its inherent fascination.

    All things are possible, only one thing actually happens; everything else is in the realm of probability. The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity- politics, economics, medicine, law, sports-giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence. Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability-preferring to drive, not fly; buying into market blips; smoking cigarettes; denying we will ever age. There are some people, though-gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists- who find probability's mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. "Chances Are" is their story. Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide-ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like "E=MC2" and "The Golden Ratio" but by anyone interested in the workings of fate.

    In studying number theory from such a perspective, mathematics majors are spared repetition and provided with new insights, while other students benefit from the consequent simplicity of the proofs for many theorems.Among the topics covered in this accessible, carefully designed introduction are multiplicativity-divisibility, including the fundamental theorem of arithmetic, combinatorial and computational number theory, congruences, arithmetic functions, primitive roots and prime numbers. Later chapters offer lucid treatments of quadratic congruences, additivity (including partition theory) and geometric number theory.Of particular importance in this text is the author's emphasis on the value of numerical examples in number theory and the role of computers in obtaining such examples. Exercises provide opportunities for constructing numerical tables with or without a computer. Students can then derive conjectures from such numerical tables, after which relevant theorems will seem natural and well-motivated..

    In these cautionary tales of greedy gamblers, reckless businessmen, and ruthless con men, Sherlock Holmes uses his deep understanding of probability, statistics, decision theory, and game theory to solve crimes and protect the innocent. But it's not just the characters in these well-crafted stories that are deceived by statistics or fall prey to gambling fallacies. We all suffer from the results of poor decisions. In this illuminating collection, Bruce entertains while teaching us to avoid similar blunders. From "The Execution of Andrews" to "The Case of the Gambling Nobleman," there has never been a more exciting way to learn when to take a calculated risk-and how to spot a scam.

    In this guide for students, each equation is the subject of an entire chapter, with detailed, plain-language explanations of the physical meaning of each symbol in the equation, for both the integral and differential forms. The final chapter shows how Maxwell's equations may be combined to produce the wave equation, the basis for the electromagnetic theory of light. This book is a wonderful resource for undergraduate and graduate courses in electromagnetism and electromagnetics. A website hosted by the author at www.cambridge.org/9780521701471 contains interactive solutions to every problem in the text as well as audio podcasts to walk students through each chapter.

    Emphasis on developing algebraic skills is extended to the exercises--including both drill problems and applications. The authors work through examples and explanations with a blend of rigor and accessibility. In addition, they have refined the flow, transitions, organization, and portioning of the content over many editions to optimize learning for readers. The table of contents covers a wide range of topics efficiently, enabling readers to gain a diverse understanding.

    The Birth of the Russian IntelligentsiaII. German Romanticism in Petersburg and MoscowIII. Vissarion BelinskyIV. Alexander Herzen- Russian Populism- Tolstoy and Enlightenment- Fathers and ChildrenIndex

    As for the latter, are you a programmer and curious about being your own boss? Where do you turn for information? Until now, online and traditional literature havent caught up with the reality of the post-dot com bust.Micro-ISV: From Vision to Reality explains what works and why in today's emerging micro-ISV sector. Currently, thousands of programmers build and deliver great solutions ISV-style, earning success and revenues much larger than you might guess. Written by and for micro-ISVs, with help from some of the leaders of the field, this book takes you beyond just daydreaming to running your own business. It thoroughly explores how it is indeed possible to launch and maintain a small and successful ISV business, and is an ideal read if you're interested in getting started.