The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

    Drawing on his experience as a medical researcher, Vickers blends insightful explanations and humor, with minimal math, to help readers understand and interpret the statistics they read every day. Describing data; Data distributions; Variation of study results: confidence intervals; Hypothesis testing; Regression and decision making; Some common statistical errors, and what they teach us For all readers interested in statistics.

    "Life's a Campaign "is like no other book on success. Famous for demanding the truth from his "Hardball" guests, Chris Matthews now reveals what the people running this country rarely confess: the secrets of how they got to the top. Here is the first book on power with insight snatched from those who wield it. "Life's a Campaign" exposes the tactics, tricks, and truths that help people get ahead-and can help you, too, whatever your field of ambition. Written in the assertive, good-natured style that is Matthews's trademark, " Life's a Campaign" is the most useful kind of investigative reporting. You'll benefit from his insider's scrutiny of the Congress, the White House, and the national news media. Here are the methods, showcased in fascinating anecdotes and case histories, that presidents, senators, and other powerful people use to persuade others and win-and the" "life lessons they provide for the rest of us. You'll learn about Bill Clinton's laser-focused ability to" "listen to those he wants to seduce-and how he's been teaching that craft to his wife, Hillary; how Ronald Reagan employed his basic optimism to win history to his side; the simple steps in" "human diplomacy that the first President Bush exploited to assemble a worldwide posse to attack Saddam Hussein and gain global approval in a way his son has failed to do; how Nancy Pelosi became the first woman Speaker of the House by practicing the most fundamental of human qualities: hardnosed loyalty. You'll also find out, for the first time, about Matthews's own wild ride through the turbulent, converging rapids of politics and journalism. The big payoff in" Life's a Campaign "is what you'll learn about human nature: - People would rather" "be listened to than listen.- People don't mind being used; what they mind is being discarded. - People are more loyal to the people they've helped than the people they've helped are loyal to them.- Not everyone's going to like you. - No matter what anybody says, nobody wants a level playing field. Knowing such truths is the successful person's number one advantage in life. As you'll learn in" Life's a Campaign, "mastering-and employing-these truths separates the leaders from the followers.

    More than just a book on how to ³do talks,² Speaking to Teenagers combines the experience and wisdom of two veteran youth ministry speakers, along with insightful research and practical tools, to help you develop messages that engage students with the love of Christ and the power of his Word. Whether you¹re crafting a five-minute devotional or a 30-minute sermon, Speaking to Teenagers is essential to understanding and preparing great messages. Together, Doug Fields and Duffy Robbins show you how they craft their own messages and give you the tools to do it yourself. They¹ll guide you, step-by-step, through the process of preparing and delivering meaningful messages that effectively communicate to your students. Fields and Robbins walk you through three dimensions of a message‹the speaker, the listener, and the message itself‹and introduce you to the concept and principles of inductive communication. You¹ll also get helpful tips on finding illustrations for your talk and using them for maximum impact, as well as insights on reading your audience and effective body language. As Speaking to Teenagers guides you toward becoming a more effective communicator, you¹ll find that this book¹s practical principles will positively impact the way you view, treat, and communicate to teenagers.

    Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.

    Useful reading for teachers who are eager to find stimulating ways to engage students' interests and boost academic performance, this volume outlines the principles of social emotional learning (SEL) that educators can follow to help all students to achieve in the math and science classroom.

      An exceptional pedagogical package that ties the textbook to online MyDevelopmentLab study tools complements the student-centered approach of the book and offers students the benefit of frequent self-assessment.

    Due to the overlap of the mental health disciplines and of supervision modalities, the authors have integrated psychology, counseling, marriage and family therapy, and social work contributions into the central themes that dominate the study and practice of clinical supervision. The authors offer a comprehensive look at the supervision relationship that must develop if supervision is to be successful. In doing so, the book serves as a valuable resource for the practitioner as well as the scholar. The authors also address the professional issues of ethical and legal concerns, evaluation, and establishing a productive context for supervision; the practice issues of supervisor training and development; and the research issues affecting both the study and practice of supervision. Appendices offer additional resources. These include materials to assist the readers in training supervisors. They also include selected instruments that might be used by supervision researchers and practitioners. Clinical supervisors.

    Rather, a combination of causes can create a perfect storm of failure.” —Wiley BlevinsPicture a class of kindergarteners singing the alphabet song, and teaching phonics  seems as easy as one-two, three, A, B, C, right? In a Fresh Look at Phonics, Wiley Blevins explains why it can get tricky, and then delivers a plan so geared for success, that teachers, coaches, and administrators will come to see owning this book as a before and after moment in their professional lives. In this amazing follow up to his renowned resource Phonics From A-Z, Wiley uses the data he has collected over two decades to share which approaches truly work, which have failed, and how teachers can fine-tune their daily instruction for success. You will learn to focus on the seven critical ingredients of phonics teaching that produce the greatest student learning gains— readiness skills, scope and sequence, blending, dictation, word awareness, high frequency words, and reading connected texts. Then, for each ingredient, Wiley shares:   Activities, routines, word lists, and lessons that develop solid foundations for reading Ideas for differentiation, ELL, and advanced learners to ensure adequate progress for all learners Help on decodable texts, what not to over-do, and what you can’t do enough of for your students’ achievement Interactive “Day Clinic” activities that facilitate teacher self-reflection and school wide professional learning In a final section, Wiley details the ten common reasons instruction fails and shows teachers how to correct these missteps regarding lesson pacing, transitions, decodable texts, writing activities, assessment and more. A Fresh Look at Phonics is the evidence-based solution you have been seeking. Wiley Blevins, Ph.D., is a world-renowned expert on early reading, and author of the seminal book Phonics From A-Z among many other works. He has taught in both the United States and South America, and regularly trains teachers throughout Asia. He holds a Doctorate in Education from Harvard University, and has worked with numerous educational scholars, including Jeanne Chall, Isabel Beck, Marilyn Adams, Louisa Moats, and Dianne August, and others.

    R is one of the most powerful and flexible statistical software packages available, and enables the user to apply a wide variety of statistical methods ranging from simple regression to generalized linear modelling. Statistics: An Introduction using R is a clear and concise introductory textbook to statistical analysis using this powerful and free software, and follows on from the success of the author's previous best-selling title Statistical Computing. * Features step-by-step instructions that assume no mathematics, statistics or programming background, helping the non-statistician to fully understand the methodology. * Uses a series of realistic examples, developing step-wise from the simplest cases, with the emphasis on checking the assumptions (e.g. constancy of variance and normality of errors) and the adequacy of the model chosen to fit the data. * The emphasis throughout is on estimation of effect sizes and confidence intervals, rather than on hypothesis testing. * Covers the full range of statistical techniques likely to be need to analyse the data from research projects, including elementary material like t-tests and chi-squared tests, intermediate methods like regression and analysis of variance, and more advanced techniques like generalized linear modelling. * Includes numerous worked examples and exercises within each chapter. * Accompanied by a website featuring worked examples, data sets, exercises and solutions: http: //www.imperial.ac.uk/bio/research/crawl... Statistics: An Introduction using R is the first text to offer such a concise introduction to a broad array of statistical methods, at a level that is elementary enough to appeal to a broad range of disciplines. It is primarily aimed at undergraduate students in medicine, engineering, economics and biology - but will also appeal to postgraduates who have not previously covered this area, or wish to switch to using R.

    If only she could count faster! Her teacher tries to persuade her of the virtues of multiplication, but Amanda remains unconvinced--until she has an amazing dream. Full color.

    It outlines a set of mindsets and habits you can use to help you identify the most impactful parts of your teaching, and put them centre stage.It's about doing less to achieve more.But it's also about being happier and more confident in the classroom. Building stronger routines around the essentials will give you more time and space to appreciate and think creatively about your work.POWER UP YOUR PLANNINGLean Lesson Planning draws on the latest evidence from educational research and cognitive science, to present a concise and coherent framework to help you improve learning experiences and outcomes for your students. It's the evidence-based teacher's guide to planning for learning, and sits alongside books such as Teach Like a Champion, Embedded Formative Assessment, and Visible Learning for Teachers.NOTE If you're looking for ways to short-cut the amount of time you spend planning lessons, then this book is not for you. The approach outlined in Lean Lesson Planning requires effort and practice, that given time, will lead to better teaching and higher quality learning for less input.---CONTENTSACT I Lean foundations1. Defining lean 2. Lean mindsets 3. Lean habits ACT II Habits for planning4. Backwards design 5. Knowing knowledge 6. Checking understanding 7. Efficient strategies 8. Lasting learning 9. Inter-lesson planning ACT III Habits for growing10. Building excellence 11. Growth teaching 12. Collective improvement Lean Lesson Planning is the first instalment in the High Impact Teaching series.

    But are you using it to “out-think” your rivals? If not, you may be missing out on a potent competitive tool.In Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning, Thomas H. Davenport and Jeanne G. Harris argue that the frontier for using data to make decisions has shifted dramatically. Certain high-performing enterprises are now building their competitive strategies around data-driven insights that in turn generate impressive business results. Their secret weapon? Analytics: sophisticated quantitative and statistical analysis and predictive modeling.Exemplars of analytics are using new tools to identify their most profitable customers and offer them the right price, to accelerate product innovation, to optimize supply chains, and to identify the true drivers of financial performance. A wealth of examples—from organizations as diverse as Amazon, Barclay’s, Capital One, Harrah’s, Procter & Gamble, Wachovia, and the Boston Red Sox—illuminate how to leverage the power of analytics.

    Douglas Hubbard helps us create a path to know the answer to almost any question in business, in science, or in life . . . Hubbard helps us by showing us that when we seek metrics to solve problems, we are really trying to know something better than we know it now. How to Measure Anything provides just the tools most of us need to measure anything better, to gain that insight, to make progress, and to succeed." -Peter Tippett, PhD, M.D. Chief Technology Officer at CyberTrust and inventor of the first antivirus software "Doug Hubbard has provided an easy-to-read, demystifying explanation of how managers can inform themselves to make less risky, more profitable business decisions. We encourage our clients to try his powerful, practical techniques." -Peter Schay EVP and COO of The Advisory Council "As a reader you soon realize that actually everything can be measured while learning how to measure only what matters. This book cuts through conventional cliches and business rhetoric and offers practical steps to using measurements as a tool for better decision making. Hubbard bridges the gaps to make college statistics relevant and valuable for business decisions." -Ray Gilbert EVP Lucent "This book is remarkable in its range of measurement applications and its clarity of style. A must-read for every professional who has ever exclaimed, 'Sure, that concept is important, but can we measure it?'" -Dr. Jack Stenner Cofounder and CEO of MetraMetrics, Inc.

    Each technique is introduced with a simple, jargon-free explanation, practical examples, and hands-on guidance for solving real problems with Excel or a TI-83/84 series calculator, including Plus models. Hate math? No sweat. You'll be amazed how little you need! For those who do have an interest in mathematics, optional "Equation Blackboard" sections review the equations that provide the foundations for important concepts. David M. Levine is a much-honored innovator in statistics education. He is Professor Emeritus of Statistics and Computer Information Systems at Bernard M. Baruch College (CUNY), and co-author of several best-selling books, including Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel, Basic Business Statistics, Quality Management, and Six Sigma for Green Belts and Champions. Instructional designer David F. Stephan pioneered the classroom use of personal computers, and is a leader in making Excel more accessible to statistics students. He has co-authored several textbooks with David M. Levine. Here's just some of what you'll learn how to do... Use statistics in your everyday work or study Perform common statistical tasks using a Texas Instruments statistical calculator or Microsoft Excel Build and interpret statistical charts and tables "Test Yourself" at the end of each chapter to review the concepts and methods that you learned in the chapter Work with mean, median, mode, standard deviation, Z scores, skewness, and other descriptive statistics Use probability and probability distributions Work with sampling distributions and confidence intervals Test hypotheses and decision-making risks with Z, t, Chi-Square, ANOVA, and other techniques Perform regression analysis and modeling The easy, practical introduction to statistics--for everyone! Thought you couldn't learn statistics? Think again. You can--and you will!