Imagine that you face three doors, behind one of which is a prize. You choose one but do not open it. The host--call him Monty Hall--opens a different door, alwayschoosing one he knows to be empty. Left with two doors, will you do better by sticking with your first choice, or by switching to the other remaining door? In this light-hearted yet ultimately serious book, Jason Rosenhouse explores the history of this fascinating puzzle. Using a minimum ofmathematics (and none at all for much of the book), he shows how the problem has fascinated philosophers, psychologists, and many others, and examines the many variations that have appeared over the years. As Rosenhouse demonstrates, the Monty Hall Problem illuminates fundamental mathematical issuesand has abiding philosophical implications. Perhaps most important, he writes, the problem opens a window on our cognitive difficulties in reasoning about uncertainty.

    Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works - and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios - the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping - are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved. Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The illustrations are simple, hand-drawn, and in black and white. For those interested, we have also included sections typically not found in other beginner guides to Bayes Rule. These include: A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios.A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. It is a great tool that can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life. A concise history of Bayes Rule. Bayes Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700’s to its being used to break the German’s Enigma Code during World War 2, its tale is quite phenomenal.Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes formula is used in everyday life.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. We have summed up 3 examples for you and provided an example of how Bayes could be used.An expanded definitions, notations, and proof section.We have included an expanded definitions and notations sections at the end of the booklet. In this section we define core terms more concretely, and also cover additional terms you might be confused about. A recommended readings section.From The Theory That Would Not Die to a few other books, there are a number of recommendations we have for further reading. Take a look! If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive booklet might be a good fit for you. Bayesian statistics is an incredibly fascinating topic and likely touches your life every single day. It is a very important tool that is used in data analysis throughout a wide-range of industries - so take an easy dive into the theorem for yourself with a visual approach!If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this booklet is for you.

    To understand the universe in the far future, we must first describe its present state and structure on the grand scale, and how its present properties arose. Dr Islam explains these topics in an accessible way in the first part of the book. From this background he speculates about the future evolution of the universe and predicts the major changes that will occur. The author has largely avoided mathematical formalism and therefore the book is well suited to general readers with a modest background knowledge of physics and astronomy.

    Many definitions of postmodernism focus on its nature as the aftermath of the modern industrial age when technology developed. This book extends that analysis to postmodernism by looking at the status of science, technology, and the arts, the significance of technocracy, and the way the flow of information is controlled in the Western world.

    Harry Gensler engages students with the basics of logic through practical examples and important arguments both in the history of philosophy and from contemporary philosophy. Using simple and manageable methods for testing arguments, students are led step-by-step to master the complexities of logic.The companion LogiCola instructional program and various teaching aids (including a teacher's manual) are available from the book's website: www.routledge.com/textbooks/gensler_l...

    Inspired by and expanding on a series of lectures presented by Leonard Peikoff, David Harriman presents a fascinating answer to the problem of induction-the epistemological question of how we can know the truth of inductive generalizations.Ayn Rand presented her revolutionary theory of concepts in her book Introduction to Objectivist Epistemology. As Dr. Peikoff subsequently explored the concept of induction, he sought out David Harriman, a physicist who had taught philosophy, for his expert knowledge of the scientific discovery process.Here, Harriman presents the result of a collaboration between scientist and philosopher. Beginning with a detailed discussion of the role of mathematics and experimentation in validating generalizations in physics-looking closely at the reasoning of scientists such as Galileo, Kepler, Newton, Lavoisier, and Maxwell-Harriman skillfully argues that the inductive method used in philosophy is in principle indistinguishable from the method used in physics.

    Shows how any proof can be understood as a sequence of techniques. Covers the full range of techniques used in proofs, such as the contrapositive, induction, and proof by contradiction. Explains how to identify which techniques are used and how they are applied in the specific problem. Illustrates how to read written proofs with many step-by-step examples. Includes new, expanded appendices related to discrete mathematics, linear algebra, modern algebra and real analysis.

    But behind both works lay the assumption that the philosophy of language is in the end a branch of the philosophy of the mind: speech acts are forms of human action and represent just one example of the mind's capacity to relate the human organism to the world. The present book is concerned with these biologically fundamental capacities, and, though third in the sequence, in effect it provides the philosophical foundations for the other two. Intentionality is taken to be the crucial mental phenomenon, and its analysis involves wide-ranging discussions of perception, action, causation, meaning, and reference. In all these areas John Searle has original and stimulating views. He ends with a resolution of the 'mind-body' problem.

    Based on her work at the Santa Fe Institute and drawing on its interdisciplinary strategies, Mitchell brings clarity to the workings of complexity across a broad range of biological, technological, and social phenomena, seeking out the general principles or laws that apply to all of them. Richly illustrated, Complexity: A Guided Tour--winner of the 2010 Phi Beta Kappa Book Award in Science--offers a wide-ranging overview of the ideas underlying complex systems science, the current research at the forefront of this field, and the prospects for its contribution to solving some of the most important scientific questions of our time.

    The book begins with an introduction to the language of statistics and then covers descriptive statistics and inferential statistics. Throughout, the author offers readers:- Difficulty Rating Index for each chapter′s material- Tips for doing and thinking about a statistical technique- Top tens for everything from the best ways to create a graph to the most effective techniques for data collection- Steps that break techniques down into a clear sequence of procedures- SPSS tips for executing each major statistical technique- Practice exercises at the end of each chapter, followed by worked out solutions.The book concludes with a statistical software sampler and a description of the best Internet sites for statistical information and data resources. Readers also have access to a website for downloading data that they can use to practice additional exercises from the book. Students and researchers will appreciate the book′s unhurried pace and thorough, friendly presentation.

    Louis are all intimately connected with the mysterious number e. In this informal and engaging history, Eli Maor portrays the curious characters and the elegant mathematics that lie behind the number. Designed for a reader with only a modest mathematical background, this biography brings out the central importance of e to mathematics and illuminates a golden era in the age of science.

    Heath's translation of the thirteen books of Euclid's Elements. In keeping with Green Lion's design commitment, diagrams have been placed on every spread for convenient reference while working through the proofs; running heads on every page indicate both Euclid's book number and proposition numbers for that page; and adequate space for notes is allowed between propositions and around diagrams. The all-new index has built into it a glossary of Euclid's Greek terms.Heath's translation has stood the test of time, and, as one done by a renowned scholar of ancient mathematics, it can be relied upon not to have inadvertantly introduced modern concepts or nomenclature. We have excised the voluminous historical and scholarly commentary that swells the Dover edition to three volumes and impedes classroom use of the original text. The single volume is not only more convenient, but less expensive as well.

    The theme of Heisenberg's exposition is that words and concepts familiar in daily life can lose their meaning in the world of relativity and quantum physics. This in turn has profound philosophical implications for the nature of reality and for our total world view.

    The gold standard for attaining security is cryptography because it provides the most reliable tools for storing or transmitting digital information. Written by Niels Ferguson, lead cryptographer for Counterpane, Bruce Schneier's security company, and Bruce Schneier himself, this is the much anticipated follow-up book to Schneier's seminal encyclopedic reference, Applied Cryptography, Second Edition (0-471-11709-9), which has sold more than 150,000 copies. Niels Ferguson (Amsterdam, Netherlands) is a cryptographic engineer and consultant at Counterpane Internet Security. He has extensive experience in the creation and design of security algorithms, protocols, and multinational security infrastructures. Previously, Ferguson was a cryptographer for DigiCash and CWI. At CWI he developed the first generation of off-line payment protocols. He has published numerous scientific papers. Bruce Schneier (Minneapolis, MN) is Founder and Chief Technical Officer at Counterpane Internet Security, a managed-security monitoring company. He is also the author of Secrets and Lies: Digital Security in a Networked World (0-471-25311-1).

    In this thought provoking Very Short Introduction, Jennifer Nagel considers the central problems and paradoxes in the theory of knowledge whilst drawing attention to the ways in which philosophers and theorists have responded to them. By exploring the relationship between knowledge and truth, and considering the problem of scepticism, Nagel introduces a series of influential historical and contemporary theories of knowledge, incorporating methods from logic, linguistics, and psychology, and using a number of everyday examples to demonstrate the key issues and debates.