Discovered by an 18th century mathematician and preacher, Bayes' rule is a cornerstone of modern probability theory. In this richly illustrated book, intuitive visual representations of real-world examples are used to show how Bayes' rule is actually a form of commonsense reasoning. The tutorial style of writing, combined with a comprehensive glossary, makes this an ideal primer for novices who wish to gain an intuitive understanding of Bayesian analysis. As an aid to understanding, online computer code (in MatLab, Python and R) reproduces key numerical results and diagrams.Stone's book is renowned for its visually engaging style of presentation, which stems from teaching Bayes' rule to psychology students for over 10 years as a university lecturer.

    This guide provides explanations of eigenvalues, eigenvectors, linear transformations, linear equations, vectors, and matrices.

    Things can exist in two places at once and travel backwards and forwards in time. Waves and particles are one and the same, and objects change their behaviour according to whether they are being watched. This is not some alternative universe but the realm of the very small, where quantum mechanics rules. In this weird world of atoms and their constituents, our common sense understanding of reality breaks down - yet quantum mechanics has never failed an experimental test. What does it all mean? For all its weirdness, quantum mechanics has given us many practical technologies including lasers and the transistors that underlie computers and all digital technology. In the future, it promises computers more powerful than any built before, the ability to communicate with absolute privacy, and even quantum teleportation. The Quantum World explores the past, present and future of quantum science, its applications and mind-bending implications. Discover how ideas from quantum mechanics are percolating out into the vast scale of the cosmos - perhaps, in the future, to reveal a new understanding of the big bang and the nature of space and time.ABOUT THE SERIESNew Scientist Instant Expert books are definitive and accessible entry points to the most important subjects in science; subjects that challenge, attract debate, invite controversy and engage the most enquiring minds. Designed for curious readers who want to know how things work and why, the Instant Expert series explores the topics that really matter and their impact on individuals, society, and the planet, translating the scientific complexities around us into language that's open to everyone, and putting new ideas and discoveries into perspective and context.

    A software diskette provides an easy-to-use tool for students to derive probabilities for binomial.

    Dr Kendrick, a well-known statin sceptic and author of the bestselling The Great Cholesterol Con, has returned to the diet-heart-cholesterol battlefield to warn that people are being conned.In relaxed and humorous style, he lifts the rock to allow the reader to peer underneath. He points out that statins, even in high-risk individuals, increase life expectancy by a mere four days after five years of treatment. Yet adverse effects have been swept under the carpet by researchers who are closely tied to the industry.The way to avoid heart disease, and strokes, is simple - but, as this riveting book shows, it has nothing to do with lowering cholesterol levels.

    The objective here is to explain science in a simple, attractive and fun form that is open to all.The first axiom of this approach was set out as follows: “We believe in the magic of science. We hope to show you that sci-ence is not a secret art, accessible only to a dedicated few. It involves learning about nature and society, and aspects of our existence which affect us all, and which we should all therefore have the chance to understand. We shall interpret science for those who might not speak its language fluently, but want to understand its meaning. We don’t teach, we just tell stories about the beginnings of science, the natural phenomena and the underlying principles through which they occur, and the lives of the people who discovered them.”The aim of the writings collected in this series is to present some key scientific events, ideas and personalities in the form of short stories that are easy and fun to read. Scientific and philo-sophical concepts are explained in a way that anyone may under-stand. Each story may be read separately, but at the same time they all band together to form a wide-ranging introduction to the history of science and areas of contemporary scientific research, as well as some of the recurring problems science has encountered in history and the philosophical dilemmas it raises today.Review“If I were the only survivor on a remote island and all I had with me were this book, a Swiss army knife and a bottle, I would throw the bottle into the sea with the note: ‘Don’t worry, I have everything I need.’”— Ciril Horjak, alias Dr. Horowitz, a comic artist“The writing is understandable, but never simplistic. Instructive, but never patronizing. Straightforward, but never trivial. In-depth, but never too intense.”— Ali Žerdin, editor at Delo, the main Slovenian newspaper“Does science think? Heidegger once answered this question with a decisive No. The writings on modern science skillfully penned by Sašo Dolenc, these small stories about big stories, quickly convince us that the contrary is true. Not only does science think in hundreds of unexpected ways, its intellectual challenges and insights are an inexhaustible source of inspiration and entertainment. The clarity of thought and the lucidity of its style make this book accessible to anyone … in the finest tradition of popularizing science, its achievements, dilemmas and predicaments.”— Mladen Dolar, philosopher and author of A Voice and Nothing More“Sašo Dolenc is undoubtedly one of our most successful authors in the field of popular science, possessing the ability to explain complex scientific achievements to a broader audience in a clear and captivating way while remaining precise and scientific. His collection of articles is of particular importance because it encompasses all areas of modern science in an unassuming, almost light-hearted manner.”— Boštjan Žekš, physicist and former president of the Slovenian Academy of Sciences and Arts

    Using a "physics first" approach to the subject, renowned relativist James B. Hartle provides a fluent and accessible introduction that uses a minimum of new mathematics and is illustrated with a wealth of exciting applications. KEY TOPICS: The emphasis is on the exciting phenomena of gravitational physics and the growing connection between theory and observation. The Global Positioning System, black holes, X-ray sources, pulsars, quasars, gravitational waves, the Big Bang, and the large scale structure of the universe are used to illustrate the widespread role of how general relativity describes a wealth of everyday and exotic phenomena. MARKET: For anyone interested in physics or general relativity.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    DLC: Quantum theory.

    That they exist, Simon Singh reveals, underscores the brilliance of the shows' writers, many of whom have advanced degrees in mathematics in addition to their unparalleled sense of humor. While recounting memorable episodes such as “Bart the Genius” and “Homer3,” Singh weaves in mathematical stories that explore everything from p to Mersenne primes, Euler's equation to the unsolved riddle of P v. NP; from perfect numbers to narcissistic numbers, infinity to even bigger infinities, and much more. Along the way, Singh meets members of The Simpsons' brilliant writing team-among them David X. Cohen, Al Jean, Jeff Westbrook, and Mike Reiss-whose love of arcane mathematics becomes clear as they reveal the stories behind the episodes. With wit and clarity, displaying a true fan's zeal, and replete with images from the shows, photographs of the writers, and diagrams and proofs, The Simpsons and Their Mathematical Secrets offers an entirely new insight into the most successful show in television history.

    This book details how two distinguished physicists and Nobel laureates have explored this theme in two lectures given in Cambridge, England, in 1986 to commemorate the famous British physicist Paul Dirac. Given for nonspecialists and undergraduates, the talks transcribed in Elementary Particles and the Laws of Physics focus on the fundamental problems of physics and the present state of our knowledge. Professor Feynman examines the nature of antiparticles, and in particular the relationship between quantum spin and statistics. Professor Weinberg speculates on how Einstein's theory of gravitation might be reconciled with quantum theory in the final law of physics. Highly accessible, deeply thought provoking, this book will appeal to all those interested in the development of modern physics.

    Michael Savage explains the origins of viruses and their impact on the U.S. With new and resurgent diseases resulting from unregulated immigration and a politicized public health system, Michael Savage sees the need for some changes - starting with the President and the Center for Disease Control telling us the truth. Savage makes his case for the government to enforce travel bans, the use of quarantines and the importance of proper border screenings. However, this is not a cure or treatment for any of these diseases. With Zika virus, tuberculosis, hepatitis, Enterovirus 68 and other new disease threats emerging across the U.S., Savage will explain ways to fortify your immune system and defend against these and other diseases. Drawing from his extensive training, Dr. Savage examines the benefits of using specific nutrients to boost the human immune system which, in turn, increases the odds of surviving a viral infection as well as preventing other diseases. Based on his knowledge of the politics of medicine being played by the Obama mandarins and his Ph.D. in Epidemiology and Nutrition from the University of California, Berkley, Dr. Savage presents solid information to protect your health. Whether you want to defend your body against deadly diseases, boost your immunity, or learn more about the government's impact on reemerging and imported diseases, DISEASES WITHOUT BORDERS is your source for informative, helpful, and potentially life-saving advice.

    Republished in book form shortly thereafter, it has since gone through four hardcover and sixteen paperback printings. It is a revolutionary work, astounding in its foresight and contemporaneity. The University of Illinois Press is pleased and honored to issue this commemorative reprinting of a classic.

    ENTANGLEMENT. REALITY. Books containing these three words are typically fluff or incomprehensible; this one is not. "Q is for Quantum" teaches a theory at the forefront of modern physics to an audience presumed to already know only basic arithmetic. Topics covered range from the practical (new technologies we can expect soon) to the foundational (old ideas that attempt to make sense of the theory). The theory is built up precisely and quantitatively. Deceptively vague jargon and analogies are avoided, and mysterious features of the theory are made explicit and not skirted. The tenacious reader will emerge with a better technical understanding of why we are troubled by this theory than that possessed by many professional physicists.

    Originating separately in both ancient Greece and India, the concept of the atom persisted for centuries, despite often running afoul of conventional thinking. Until the twentieth century, no direct evidence for atoms existed. Today it is possible to actually observe atoms using a scanning tunneling microscope. The book begins with the story of the earliest atomists - the ancient Greek philosophers Leucippus, Democritus, and Epicurus, and the Latin poet Lucretius. As the author notes, the idea of elementary particles as the foundation of reality had many opponents throughout history - from Aristotle to Christian theologians and even some nineteenth-century chemists and philosophers. While theists today accept that the evidence for the atomic theory of matter is overwhelming, they reject the atheistic implications of that theory.