Bayesian statistics is taught in most first-year statistics classes across the nation, but there is one major problem that many students (and others who are interested in the theorem) face. The theorem is not intuitive for most people, and understanding how it works can be a challenge, especially because it is often taught without visual aids. In this guide, we unpack the various components of the theorem and provide a basic overview of how it works - and with illustrations to help. Three scenarios - the flu, breathalyzer tests, and peacekeeping - are used throughout the booklet to teach how problems involving Bayes Theorem can be approached and solved. Over 60 hand-drawn visuals are included throughout to help you work through each problem as you learn by example. The illustrations are simple, hand-drawn, and in black and white. For those interested, we have also included sections typically not found in other beginner guides to Bayes Rule. These include: A short tutorial on how to understand problem scenarios and find P(B), P(A), and P(B|A). For many people, knowing how to approach scenarios and break them apart can be daunting. In this booklet, we provide a quick step-by-step reference on how to confidently understand scenarios.A few examples of how to think like a Bayesian in everyday life. Bayes Rule might seem somewhat abstract, but it can be applied to many areas of life and help you make better decisions. It is a great tool that can help you with critical thinking, problem-solving, and dealing with the gray areas of life. A concise history of Bayes Rule. Bayes Theorem has a fascinating 200+ year history, and we have summed it up for you in this booklet. From its discovery in the 1700’s to its being used to break the German’s Enigma Code during World War 2, its tale is quite phenomenal.Fascinating real-life stories on how Bayes formula is used in everyday life.From search and rescue to spam filtering and driverless cars, Bayes is used in many areas of modern day life. We have summed up 3 examples for you and provided an example of how Bayes could be used.An expanded definitions, notations, and proof section.We have included an expanded definitions and notations sections at the end of the booklet. In this section we define core terms more concretely, and also cover additional terms you might be confused about. A recommended readings section.From The Theory That Would Not Die to a few other books, there are a number of recommendations we have for further reading. Take a look! If you are a visual learner and like to learn by example, this intuitive booklet might be a good fit for you. Bayesian statistics is an incredibly fascinating topic and likely touches your life every single day. It is a very important tool that is used in data analysis throughout a wide-range of industries - so take an easy dive into the theorem for yourself with a visual approach!If you are looking for a short beginners guide packed with visual examples, this booklet is for you.

    The set includes thirty-one 30-minute MCAT practice exams with answers and explanations and more than 1,600 MCAT questions.

    Many examples are taken from real-world projects. The book focuses on high-level design as well as the gritty details of the Python syntax. The provided exercises inspire the reader to think about his or her own code, rather than providing solved problems. If you're new to Object Oriented Programming techniques, or if you have basic Python skills and wish to learn in depth how and when to correctly apply Object Oriented Programming in Python, this is the book for you. If you are an object-oriented programmer for other languages, you too will find this book a useful introduction to Python, as it uses terminology you are already familiar with. Python 2 programmers seeking a leg up in the new world of Python 3 will also find the book beneficial, and you need not necessarily know Python 2.

    Known for its complete coverage of concepts and principles along with a more systematic and descriptive treatment of mineralogy, the revised edition now includes a CD-ROM to let readers see the minerals and crystals, while also viewing chemical composition, symmetry, and morphological crystallography.

    The most trusted sources in the auto industry have called its Model S the most advanced, safest and best-performing car ever built - and it doesn’t use a drop of gasoline. Tesla has changed the way the public perceives electric vehicles, and inspired the major automakers to revive their own dormant efforts to sell EVs. However, even amidst the avalanche of media coverage that followed the triumph of the Model S, few have grasped the true significance of what is happening. Tesla has redefined the automobile, sparked a new wave of innovation comparable to the internet and mobile computing revolutions, and unleashed forces that will transform not just the auto industry, but every aspect of society. The Tesla story is one part of an ongoing tide of change driven by the use of information technology to eliminate “friction” such as geographic distance, middlemen and outdated regulations. Tesla is simply applying the new order to the auto industry, but the automobile is such a pervasive influence in our lives that redefining how it is designed, built, driven and sold will have sweeping effects in unexpected areas. Just as Tesla built the Model S as an electric vehicle “from the ground up,” it has taken an outsider’s approach to the way it markets its cars. Its direct sales model has drawn legal challenges from entrenched auto dealers, who fear that their outdated business model will be destroyed. Its systems approach to the software and electronics in its cars has highlighted how far behind the technological times the major automakers are. It’s easy to see why readers find Tesla irresistible. CEO Elon Musk is a superstar entrepreneur, a “nauseatingly pro-US” immigrant and the leader of two other cutting-edge companies. Tesla dares to challenge the establishment behemoths and, so far at least, has handily beaten them at their own game. In this history of the 21st century’s most exciting startup, Charles Morris begins with a brief history of EVs and a biography of Tesla’s driving force, Elon Musk. He then details the history of the company, told in the words of the Silicon Valley entrepreneurs who made it happen. There are many fascinating stories here: Martin Eberhard’s realization that there were many like himself, who loved fast cars but wanted to help the environment and bring about the post-oil age; the freewheeling first days, reminiscent of the early internet era; the incredible ingenuity of the team who built the Roadster; Tesla’s near-death experience and miraculous resurrection; the spiteful split between the company’s larger-than-life leaders; the gloves-off battles with hostile media such as Top Gear and the New York Times; and the media’s ironic about-face when the magnificent Model S won the industry’s highest honors, and naysayers became cheerleaders overnight. And the story is just beginning: Tesla has breathtakingly ambitious plans for the future.This book was updated May 1, 2015 to include the latest on the Gigafactory and the D package.

    It uses a taxonomic approach for the study of pathogens.

    Readers profit from its verbal-conceptual exposition and frequent use of examples.The applied emphasis provides clear illustrations of the principles and provides worked examples of the types of applications that are possible. Researchers learn how to specify regression models that directly address their research questions. An overview of the fundamental ideas of multiple regression and a review of bivariate correlation and regression and other elementary statistical concepts provide a strong foundation for understanding the rest of the text. The third edition features an increased emphasis on graphics and the use of confidence intervals and effect size measures, and an accompanying website with data for most of the numerical examples along with the computer code for SPSS, SAS, and SYSTAT, at www.psypress.com/9780805822236 .Applied Multiple Regression serves as both a textbook for graduate students and as a reference tool for researchers in psychology, education, health sciences, communications, business, sociology, political science, anthropology, and economics. An introductory knowledge of statistics is required. Self-standing chapters minimize the need for researchers to refer to previous chapters.

    Over dinner one night, her mother casually mentioned Sarah had been conceived using a sperm donor. The man who’d raised Sarah wasn’t her father; in fact, she had no idea who her father was. Or who she really was. As the shock receded, Sarah put her professional skills to work and began to investigate her own existence. Thus began a ten-year journey to understand who she was – digging through hospital records, chasing leads and taking a DNA test – that finally led her to her biological origins. What she discovered along the way was shocking: hospital records routinely destroyed, trading of eggs and sperm, women dead, donors exploited, and hundreds of thousands of donor-conceived people globally who will never know who they are. But there’s one thing this industry hasn’t banked on: the children of the baby business taking on their makers.In a profoundly personal way, Brave New Humans shines a light on the global fertility business today – a booming and largely unregulated industry that takes a startlingly lax approach to huge ethical concerns, not least our fundamental human need to know who we are, and where we come from.

    Intended for developers who are already familiar with the Apex language, and experienced Java and C# developers who are moving to Apex, this book starts where the Force.com documentation leaves off. Instead of trying to cover all of the features of the platform, Advanced Apex programming focuses entirely on the Apex language and core design patterns. You’ll learn how to truly think in Apex – to embrace limits and bulk patterns. You’ll see how to develop architectures for efficient and reliable trigger handling, and for asynchronous operations. You’ll discover that best practices differ radically depending on whether you are building software for a specific organization or for a managed package. And you’ll find approaches for incorporating testing and diagnostic code that can dramatically improve the reliability and deployment of Apex software, and reduce your lifecycle and support costs. Based on his experience both as a consultant and as architect of a major AppExchange package, Dan Appleman focuses on the real-world problems and issues that are faced by Apex developers every day, along with the obscure problems and surprises that can sneak up on you if you are unprepared.

    Polya, How to Solve It will show anyone in any field how to think straight. In lucid and appealing prose, Polya reveals how the mathematical method of demonstrating a proof or finding an unknown can be of help in attacking any problem that can be reasoned out--from building a bridge to winning a game of anagrams. Generations of readers have relished Polya's deft--indeed, brilliant--instructions on stripping away irrelevancies and going straight to the heart of the problem.

    It emphasizes the ways in which the study of sedimentary rocks is used to interpret depositional environments, changes in ancient sea level, and other intriguing aspects of Earth’s history.

    In 1905 an unknown 26-year-old clerk at the Swiss Patent Office, who had supposedly failed math in school, burst on to the scientific scene and swept away the hidebound theories of the day. The clerk, Albert Einstein, introduced a new and unexpected understanding of the universe and launched the two great revolutions of twentieth-century physics, relativity and quantum mechanics. The obscure origin and wide-ranging brilliance of the work recalled Isaac Newton’s “annus mirabilis” (miracle year) of 1666, when as a 23-year-old seeking safety at his family manor from an outbreak of the plague, he invented calculus and laid the foundations for his theory of gravity. Like Newton, Einstein quickly became a scientific icon--the image of genius and, according to Time magazine, the Person of the Century.The actual story is much more interesting. Einstein himself once remarked that “science as something coming into being ... is just as subjectively, psychologically conditioned as are all other human endeavors.” In this profile, the historian of science L. Randles Lagerstrom takes you behind the myth and into the very human life of the young Einstein. From family rifts and girlfriend troubles to financial hardships and jobless anxieties, Einstein’s early years were typical of many young persons. And yet in the midst of it all, he also saw his way through to profound scientific insights. Drawing upon correspondence from Einstein, his family, and his friends, Lagerstrom brings to life the young Einstein and enables the reader to come away with a fuller and more appreciative understanding of Einstein the person and the origins of his revolutionary ideas.About the cover image: While walking to work six days a week as a patent clerk in Bern, Switzerland, Einstein would pass by the famous "Zytglogge" tower and its astronomical clocks. The daily juxtaposition was fitting, as the relative nature of time and clock synchronization would be one of his revolutionary discoveries in the miracle year of 1905.

    But what is a “good” shot? Are all good shots created equally? And how might one identify players who are more or less likely to make and prevent those shots in the first place? The concept of basketball “analytics,” for lack of a better term, has been lauded, derided, and misunderstood. The incorporation of more data into NBA decision-making has been credited—or blamed—for everything from the death of the traditional center to the proliferation of three-point shooting to the alleged abandonment of the area of the court known as the midrange. What is beyond doubt is that understanding its methods has never been more important to watching and appreciating the NBA. In The Midrange Theory, Seth Partnow, NBA analyst for The Athletic and former Director of Basketball Research for the Milwaukee Bucks, explains how numbers have affected the modern NBA game, and how those numbers seek not to “solve” the game of basketball but instead urge us toward thinking about it in new ways.The relative value of Russell Westbrook’s triple-doublesWhy some players succeed in the playoffs while others don’tHow NBA teams think about constructing their rosters through the draft and free agencyThe difficulty in measuring defensive achievementThe fallacy of the “quick two”From shot selection to evaluating prospects to considering aesthetics and ethics while analyzing the box scores, Partnow deftly explores where the NBA is now, how it got here, and where it might be going next.

    There's no need to look through dozens of photos of birds that don't live in the Carolinas. This book features 140 species of Carolina birds, organized by color for ease of use. Do you see a yellow bird and don't know what it is? Go to the yellow section to find out. Fact-filled information, a compare feature, range maps and detailed photographs help to ensure that you positively identify the birds that you see.