However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice-freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You'll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you've mastered these techniques, you'll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects. Coverage includes - Learning the Bayesian "state of mind" and its practical implications - Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference - Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses - Building and debugging models with PyMC - Testing your model's "goodness of fit" - Opening the "black box" of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works - Leveraging the power of the "Law of Large Numbers" - Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning - Using loss functions to measure an estimate's weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes - Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size - Overcoming the "exploration versus exploitation" dilemma: deciding when "pretty good" is good enough - Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing - Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.

    Following on the success of the first six editions of the series, this work introduces theoretical and pedagogical innovations in statics, dynamics, and mechanics of materials education.

    In this collection of landmark mathematical works, editor Stephen Hawking has assembled the greatest feats humans have ever accomplished using just numbers and their brains.

    Features exceptionally clear explanations and descriptions, step-by-step examples, more than 50 practical applications, over 2000 easy-to-challenging practice problems, and comprehensive coverage of essentials. PSpice, OrCAd version 9.2 Lite Edition, Multisims 2001 version of Electronics Workbench, and MathCad software references and examples are used throughout. Computer programs (C++, BASIC and PSpice) are printed in color, as they run, at the point in the book where they are discussed. Current and Voltage. Resistance. Ohm's Law, Power, and Energy. Series Circuits. Parallel Circuits. Series-Parallel Networks. Methods of Analysis & Selected Topics. Network Theorems. Capacitors. Magnetic Circuits. Inductors. Sinusodial Alternating Waveforms. The Basic Elements and Phasors. Series and Parallel ac Circuits. Series-Parallel ac Networks. Methods of Analysis and Related Topics. Network Theorems (ac). Power (ac). Resonance. Transformers. Polyphase Systems. Decibels, Filters, and Bode Points. Pulse Waveforms and the R-C Response. Nonsinusodial Circuits. System Analysis: An Introduction. For those working in electronic technology.

    Kurt Giidel maintained, and offered detailed proof, that in any arithmetic system, even in elementary parts of arithmetic, there are propositions which cannot be proved or disproved within the system. It is thus uncertain that the basic axioms of arithmetic will not give rise to contradictions. The repercussions of this discovery are still being felt and debated in 20th-century mathematics.The present volume reprints the first English translation of Giidel's far-reaching work. Not only does it make the argument more intelligible, but the introduction contributed by Professor R. B. Braithwaite (Cambridge University}, an excellent work of scholarship in its own right, illuminates it by paraphrasing the major part of the argument.This Dover edition thus makes widely available a superb edition of a classic work of original thought, one that will be of profound interest to mathematicians, logicians and anyone interested in the history of attempts to establish axioms that would provide a rigorous basis for all mathematics. Translated by B. Meltzer, University of Edinburgh. Preface. Introduction by R. B. Braithwaite.

    In the same period, the cross-fertilization of mathematics and philosophy resulted in a new sort of 'mathematical philosophy', associated most notably (but in different ways) with Bertrand Russell, W. V. Quine, and Godel himself, and which remains at the focus of Anglo-Saxon philosophical discussion. The present collection brings together in a convenient form the seminal articles in the philosophy of mathematics by these and other major thinkers. It is a substantially revised version of the edition first published in 1964 and includes a revised bibliography. The volume will be welcomed as a major work of reference at this level in the field.

    There are equally many advanced textbooks which delve into the far reaches of statistical theory, while bypassing practical applications. But between these two approaches is an unfilled gap, in which theory and practice merge at an intermediate level. Professor M. G. Bulmer's Principles of Statistics, originally published in 1965, was created to fill that need. The new, corrected Dover edition of Principles of Statistics makes this invaluable mid-level text available once again for the classroom or for self-study.Principles of Statistics was created primarily for the student of natural sciences, the social scientist, the undergraduate mathematics student, or anyone familiar with the basics of mathematical language. It assumes no previous knowledge of statistics or probability; nor is extensive mathematical knowledge necessary beyond a familiarity with the fundamentals of differential and integral calculus. (The calculus is used primarily for ease of notation; skill in the techniques of integration is not necessary in order to understand the text.)Professor Bulmer devotes the first chapters to a concise, admirably clear description of basic terminology and fundamental statistical theory: abstract concepts of probability and their applications in dice games, Mendelian heredity, etc.; definitions and examples of discrete and continuous random variables; multivariate distributions and the descriptive tools used to delineate them; expected values; etc. The book then moves quickly to more advanced levels, as Professor Bulmer describes important distributions (binomial, Poisson, exponential, normal, etc.), tests of significance, statistical inference, point estimation, regression, and correlation. Dozens of exercises and problems appear at the end of various chapters, with answers provided at the back of the book. Also included are a number of statistical tables and selected references.

    But as anyone who has ever opened up a spreadsheet packed with seemingly infinite lines of data knows, numbers aren't enough: we need to know how to make those numbers talk. In The Model Thinker, social scientist Scott E. Page shows us the mathematical, statistical, and computational models—from linear regression to random walks and far beyond—that can turn anyone into a genius. At the core of the book is Page's "many-model paradigm," which shows the reader how to apply multiple models to organize the data, leading to wiser choices, more accurate predictions, and more robust designs. The Model Thinker provides a toolkit for business people, students, scientists, pollsters, and bloggers to make them better, clearer thinkers, able to leverage data and information to their advantage.

    Thoroughly updated, this edition offers new, faster techniques for solving differential equations generated by the emergence of high-speed computers.

    Linear algebra is tightly integrated into the text.

    . . Algebra's importance lies in the student's future. . . as essential preparation for the serious study of science, engineering, economics, or for more advanced types of mathematics. . . The primary importance of trigonometry is not in its applications to surveying and navigation, or in making computations about triangles, but rather in the mathematical description of vibrations, rotations, and periodic phenomena of all kinds, including light, sound, alternating currents, and the orbits of the planets around the sun. In this brief, clearly written book, the essentials of geometry, algebra, and trigonometry are pulled together into three complementary and convenient small packages, providing an excellent preview and review for anyone who wishes to prepare to master calculus with a minimum of misunderstanding and wasted time and effort. Students and other readers will find here all they need to pull them through.

    Just how calculus makes these things possible and in doing so finds a correspondence between real numbers and the real world is the subject of this dazzling book by a writer of extraordinary clarity and stylistic brio. Even as he initiates us into the mysteries of real numbers, functions, and limits, Berlinski explores the furthest implications of his subject, revealing how the calculus reconciles the precision of numbers with the fluidity of the changing universe. "An odd and tantalizing book by a writer who takes immense pleasure in this great mathematical tool, and tries to create it in others."--New York Times Book Review

    With the sophisticated algorithms in this book, you can write smart programs to access interesting datasets from other web sites, collect data from users of your own applications, and analyze and understand the data once you've found it.Programming Collective Intelligence takes you into the world of machine learning and statistics, and explains how to draw conclusions about user experience, marketing, personal tastes, and human behavior in general -- all from information that you and others collect every day. Each algorithm is described clearly and concisely with code that can immediately be used on your web site, blog, Wiki, or specialized application. This book explains:Collaborative filtering techniques that enable online retailers to recommend products or media Methods of clustering to detect groups of similar items in a large dataset Search engine features -- crawlers, indexers, query engines, and the PageRank algorithm Optimization algorithms that search millions of possible solutions to a problem and choose the best one Bayesian filtering, used in spam filters for classifying documents based on word types and other features Using decision trees not only to make predictions, but to model the way decisions are made Predicting numerical values rather than classifications to build price models Support vector machines to match people in online dating sites Non-negative matrix factorization to find the independent features in a dataset Evolving intelligence for problem solving -- how a computer develops its skill by improving its own code the more it plays a game Each chapter includes exercises for extending the algorithms to make them more powerful. Go beyond simple database-backed applications and put the wealth of Internet data to work for you. "Bravo! I cannot think of a better way for a developer to first learn these algorithms and methods, nor can I think of a better way for me (an old AI dog) to reinvigorate my knowledge of the details."-- Dan Russell, Google "Toby's book does a great job of breaking down the complex subject matter of machine-learning algorithms into practical, easy-to-understand examples that can be directly applied to analysis of social interaction across the Web today. If I had this book two years ago, it would have saved precious time going down some fruitless paths."-- Tim Wolters, CTO, Collective Intellect

    The gold standard for attaining security is cryptography because it provides the most reliable tools for storing or transmitting digital information. Written by Niels Ferguson, lead cryptographer for Counterpane, Bruce Schneier's security company, and Bruce Schneier himself, this is the much anticipated follow-up book to Schneier's seminal encyclopedic reference, Applied Cryptography, Second Edition (0-471-11709-9), which has sold more than 150,000 copies. Niels Ferguson (Amsterdam, Netherlands) is a cryptographic engineer and consultant at Counterpane Internet Security. He has extensive experience in the creation and design of security algorithms, protocols, and multinational security infrastructures. Previously, Ferguson was a cryptographer for DigiCash and CWI. At CWI he developed the first generation of off-line payment protocols. He has published numerous scientific papers. Bruce Schneier (Minneapolis, MN) is Founder and Chief Technical Officer at Counterpane Internet Security, a managed-security monitoring company. He is also the author of Secrets and Lies: Digital Security in a Networked World (0-471-25311-1).

    Mitchell covers the field of machine learning, the study of algorithms that allow computer programs to automatically improve through experience and that automatically infer general laws from specific data.