Jon Wertheim to overturn some of the most cherished truisms of sports, and reveal the hidden forces that shape how basketball, baseball, football, and hockey games are played, won and lost.Drawing from Moskowitz's original research, as well as studies from fellow economists such as bestselling author Richard Thaler, the authors look at: the influence home-field advantage has on the outcomes of games in all sports and why it exists; the surprising truth about the universally accepted axiom that defense wins championships;  the subtle biases that umpires exhibit in calling balls and strikes in key situations; the unintended consequences of referees' tendencies in every sport to "swallow the whistle," and more.Among the insights that Scorecasting reveals:Why Tiger Woods is prone to the same mistake in high-pressure putting situations that you and I areWhy professional teams routinely overvalue draft picks The myth of momentum  or the "hot hand" in sports, and why so many fans, coaches, and broadcasters fervently subscribe to itWhy NFL coaches rarely go for a first down on fourth-down situations--even when their reluctance to do so reduces their chances of winning.In an engaging narrative that takes us from the putting greens of Augusta to the grid iron of a small parochial high school in Arkansas, Scorecasting will forever change how you view the game, whatever your favorite sport might be.

    The strengths and weaknesses of each research method are examined to help students choose an appropriate methodology, and the wider philosophical issues and ethical controversies that affect business research are discussed to help students make informed research decisions.The book examines in depth the distinction between quantitative and qualitative research techniques and how and when they should be used, and marries theoretical issues with topical case examples from a number of work-related fields (such as management, strategy, and marketing). It has also been comprehensively updated to reflect the growing use of the internet as a source of data and medium for conducting research, and places new emphasis on the student experience of research by relating the activities of real student researchers back to the research process.New to this Edition - Brand new chapter on reviewing the literature that introduces the steps involved in undertaking a critical review to help students get the most out of their reading and build a strong platform for further research. - Themed boxes that focus on examples of real, published research, key concepts, and practical tips and skills to help students grasp core principles sooner and apply their learning to new research situations. - Expanded online research guide that takes students step-by-step through their research project and provides essential research advice, checklists, templates, and case exercises to help students become more engaged and organized researchers.

    Chock full of easy to understand instructions and full color pictures for the 24 recipes included, you are sure to succeed with this book, regardless of your skill level. With a few simple ingredients, and a little bit of time, you’ll be making bath bombs in an afternoon. You’re in good hands with this quick and easy guide to showing you not only the basics, but also more fun and challenging recipes like the Fizzy Pops, designed to look like tasty cake pop treats. Taking it a step further she has also included cupcake bath bombs with a sugar scrub topping. Who wouldn't love to make these? This book can be a project for yourself, a gift for a friend, or an enhancement to your knowledge in the world of bath and body crafts. Whatever the purpose, the reader will enjoy!

     Indian attacks, Mexican invasions, murderous bandits and the persistent threat of disease and famine plagued these early settlers. In the first third of the book A. J. Sowell gathers numerous first-hand accounts to construct a history of this area in the mid-nineteenth century, when life was tough and often short. Particularly focusing on the attacks by Native Americans, Sowell examines how early settlers defended themselves in ad hoc groups and volunteer companies. Then Sowell examines the advent of the Republic of Texas in the aftermath of the Texas Revolution. Many of Texas’ most famous events are covered in this section, drawn from eyewitness accounts and sometimes seen by Sowell himself, including the Battle of Concepcion, the Siege of the Alamo and the Battle of San Jacinto. Part three of Sowell’s work covers his own fascinating involvement with the Texas Rangers, including the Wichita Campaign in northwest Texas where he endured a brutally cold winter and participated in a number of deadly fights with Native Americans. Andrew Jackson Sowell was first of his family to be born in Texas after his relations moved to the area in 1830. His grandfather was involved in the Texas Revolution, as was his uncle, who served in the Alamo garrison but departed to obtain supplies prior to its fall. From 1870 November until 1871 June, he was a Texas Ranger in Company F of the Frontier Battalion, serving under Capt. David P. Baker. Drawing on his own experiences as a Texas Ranger, events in his relatives’ lives, family history, and interviews, Sowell wrote numerous books and articles about the early history of Texas. His books include Rangers and Pioneers of Texas, Life of Big Foot Wallace, Early Settlers and Indian Fighters of Southwest Texas, and History of Fort Bend County. Rangers and Pioneers of Texas was published in 1884. Sowell died in 1921.

    To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years—at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information (Alan Turing's role in breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II), and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security.Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    "What They Did There: Profiles From the Battle of Gettysburg" offers a unique view of its subject, telling the story of the battle not through convention narrative but via 170 mini-bios of not only combatants blue and gray, but of civilians, doctors, nurses, artists, photographers, Samaritans; saints, sinners and the moral terrain in-between.

    Readerswill find information on frequency distributions; mean, median, and mode; range, variance, and standard deviation;probability; and more.-Emphasizes Microsoft Excel for number-crunching and computationsDownload a sample chapter.

    In How Not to Be Wrong, Jordan Ellenberg shows us how terribly limiting this view is: Math isn’t confined to abstract incidents that never occur in real life, but rather touches everything we do—the whole world is shot through with it.Math allows us to see the hidden structures underneath the messy and chaotic surface of our world. It’s a science of not being wrong, hammered out by centuries of hard work and argument. Armed with the tools of mathematics, we can see through to the true meaning of information we take for granted: How early should you get to the airport? What does “public opinion” really represent? Why do tall parents have shorter children? Who really won Florida in 2000? And how likely are you, really, to develop cancer?How Not to Be Wrong presents the surprising revelations behind all of these questions and many more, using the mathematician’s method of analyzing life and exposing the hard-won insights of the academic community to the layman—minus the jargon. Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia’s views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can’t figure out about you, and the existence of God.Ellenberg pulls from history as well as from the latest theoretical developments to provide those not trained in math with the knowledge they need. Math, as Ellenberg says, is “an atomic-powered prosthesis that you attach to your common sense, vastly multiplying its reach and strength.” With the tools of mathematics in hand, you can understand the world in a deeper, more meaningful way. How Not to Be Wrong will show you how.

    Too often, that power is abused and the numbers bamboozle. This book shows how to see straight through them - and how to seize the power for yourself. Public spending, health risks, environmental disasters, who is rich, who is poor, Aids or war deaths, pensions, teenage offenders, the best and worst schools and hospitals, immigration - life comes in numbers. The trick to seeing through them is strikingly simple. It is to apply something everyone has - the lessons of their own experience. Using vivid and everyday images and ideas, this book shows how close to hand insight and understanding can be, and how we can all use what is familiar to make sense of what is baffling. It is also a revelation - of how little the principles are understood even by many who claim to know better. This book is written by the team who created and present the hugely popular BBC Radio 4 series, More or Less.

    In Dataclysm, Christian Rudder uses it to show us who we truly are.   For centuries, we’ve relied on polling or small-scale lab experiments to study human behavior. Today, a new approach is possible. As we live more of our lives online, researchers can finally observe us directly, in vast numbers, and without filters. Data scientists have become the new demographers.   In this daring and original book, Rudder explains how Facebook "likes" can predict, with surprising accuracy, a person’s sexual orientation and even intelligence; how attractive women receive exponentially more interview requests; and why you must have haters to be hot. He charts the rise and fall of America’s most reviled word through Google Search and examines the new dynamics of collaborative rage on Twitter. He shows how people express themselves, both privately and publicly. What is the least Asian thing you can say? Do people bathe more in Vermont or New Jersey? What do black women think about Simon & Garfunkel? (Hint: they don’t think about Simon & Garfunkel.) Rudder also traces human migration over time, showing how groups of people move from certain small towns to the same big cities across the globe. And he grapples with the challenge of maintaining privacy in a world where these explorations are possible.   Visually arresting and full of wit and insight, Dataclysm is a new way of seeing ourselves—a brilliant alchemy, in which math is made human and numbers become the narrative of our time.

    Jordan details life as an Air Force Mortuary Non Commissioned Officer. In his stunning debut Jordan forces the reader to walk beside him on his journey in this gruesome world. Jordan holds nothing back, and shares in graphic detail how he honored Americas heroes, both at deployed locations and stateside. This book will pry your eyes wide open as you gasp from the sheer horror he faced daily, from dealing with the families of the fallen, to witnessing the embalming and preparations of the deceased. Jordan also shares how this job taxed his mental well being, as he suffered in silence, longing not to care. Jordan is still serving on Active Duty and suffers from the crippling effects of PTSD, his story will enlighten you, it will touch you, and yes, you will cry.

    . . everything you need to master the most widely used management science techniques using Microsoft Excel is right here Learning to make decisions in today's business world takes training and experience. Cliff Ragsdale--the respected innovator in the field of management science--is an outstanding guide to help you learn the skills you need, use Microsoft Excel for Windows to implement those skills, and gain the confidence to apply what you learn to real business situations. SPREADSHEET MODELING AND DECISION ANALYSIS gives you step-by-step instructions and annotated screen shots to make examples easy to follow. Plus, interesting sections called The World of Management Science show you how each topic has been applied in a real company.

    In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.