Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?   In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."   In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

    From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.

    But much of their work is based on assumptions that are untested generalizations at best, harmful misperceptions at worst.Abhijit Banerjee and Esther Duflo have pioneered the use of randomized control trials in development economics. Work based on these principles, supervised by the Poverty Action Lab, is being carried out in dozens of countries. Drawing on this and their 15 years of research from Chile to India, Kenya to Indonesia, they have identified wholly new aspects of the behavior of poor people, their needs, and the way that aid or financial investment can affect their lives. Their work defies certain presumptions: that microfinance is a cure-all, that schooling equals learning, that poverty at the level of 99 cents a day is just a more extreme version of the experience any of us have when our income falls uncomfortably low.This important book illuminates how the poor live, and offers all of us an opportunity to think of a world beyond poverty.Learn more at www.pooreconomics.com

    And with the advent of modern science, great minds have turned to testing and experimentation rather than mere thought as a way of approaching and grappling with some of the universe's most pressing and vexing dilemmas. So what is our latest picture of some of the most inexplicable features of the universe? What still remains to be uncovered? What are some of the next avenues of exploration for today's chemists, physicists, biologists, and astronomers? Pondering the answers to these and other questions is a great way to appreciate the grandeur and complexity of the world around you, better understand and discuss news and developments in science, and spark further interest in some of science's many exciting areas of study. "We know a lot about the universe. But there's even more that we don't know,"says astrophysicist and Professor Neil deGrasse Tyson, director of the Hayden Planetarium, an award-winning lecturer, and one of the world's foremost experts on the secrets of the universe. And his course The Inexplicable Universe: Unsolved Mysteries is the perfect gateway into this mind-bending and eye-opening subject. Each of these six self-contained lectures is a marvelous journey to the frontiers of the known (and unknown) universe and introduces you to tantalizing questions being addressed by the world's top scientists. Undeniably engaging and fascinating, this lecture series is a wonderful entrée to scientific pursuits that lie at the very heart of the history and nature of our universe. An Informed Scientific Conversation Central to The Inexplicable Universe is the way it takes you deep into hidden layers of the universe in a manner that is extremely accessible. Rather than a stern lecture given before a podium complete with confusing mathematics, Professor Tyson's lectures have the feel of an informed conversation that manages to be both thorough and easy to grasp. With each of the inexplicable mysteries he lays bare for you, Professor Tyson introduces you to the history behind it, lays out the science that has helped us grasp it, explains what researchers have discovered to date, and reveals what we have yet to discover. And while the topics explore subjects in everything from quantum mechanics to cosmology to string theory, you'll never feel overwhelmed by what you're learning. In fact, you're more likely to find yourself intrigued by just how much we know-and curious about what the near future will possibly reveal. Explore Fascinating Territory So what territory will you chart in this course? Here are some of the inexplicable ideas you'll investigate in these lectures. Neutrinos: Discovered in 1956, these fast-moving, ghostlike particles are made in abundance in the sun's core. They hardly interact with matter; it takes a light-year's worth of lead (5.8 trillion miles) to stop a neutrino. Not only that, but 65 billion neutrinos pass through every centimeter of your body that's facing the sun every second of every day. String theory: This astounding theory offers the hope of unifying all the particles and forces of physics. In the past several decades since the dawn of string theory, it's been imagined that all the fundamental particles we see and measure are just the manifestation in our dimension of strings vibrating in higher dimensions and at different frequencies. Quantum foam: This idea posits that when the fabric of space and time is so tightly curved on itself, space-time is less a smooth curve and more like the froth on a latte. In this state of matter and energy, quantum fluctuations can spawn entire universes, each with slightly different laws of physics within them! In addition, you'll also get a peek at what it would be like to travel through a black hole, ponder the possibility that life on Earth originated in debris from Mars, probe the supposed existence of multiple universes, and even imagine the possible end of the universe itself. A One-on-One Chat with a Renowned Science Educator Professor Tyson is renowned throughout the scientific community and the media for his vast knowledge, his penetrating insights, and his amazing ability to make even the most intimidating areas of science accessible, engaging, and-most of all-enjoyable. He brings the same inviting tone and sharp intellect to The Inexplicable Universe as he does to his range of media appearances on popular television programs. Due to its unique subject matter The Inexplicable Universe takes a highly visual approach. Many of the fascinating subjects in the course, such as black holes, string theory, and multiple universes are best demonstrated visually and Professor Tyson's lectures feature expertly crafted computer animations, explanatory diagrams, high resolution photographs, and other instructive visual elements. In order to better explain to you some of the grand, intricate ideas being discussed, Professor Tyson personally interacts with many of these animations and graphics using greenscreen technology. Please note that, due to the highly visual nature of The Inexplicable Universe, the course does not come with a guidebook. We did not believe a simple book could adequately convey the information in the course, and rather than make a guidebook that did not do the course justice, we decided to not offer one. However, we believe that you will be very excited by how we produced this course and will find it to be an enriching and fulfilling experience in your educational journey.

    A leather couch. A neatly bearded, scholarly looking gentleman seated off to the side, only rarely speaking, quietly taking notes and occasionally nodding as the couch's supine occupant tells his or her story.In some ways, such a picture would indeed be accurate, a confirmation not only of the importance of Sigmund Freud in the history of psychology but also of the degree Freud dominates the popular perception of this discipline.But the picture would be inaccurate, as well.Freud was a physician, and the majority of psychologists are not. Both the psychoanalytic theory he pioneered and the therapeutic approach it was based onpsychoanalysishave seen their dominance wane in recent years. And psychologists today, as indebted as they may be to Freud's landmark explorations of our psychological landscape, are involved in far more than helping people cope with inner demons.The expansive and varied roles of contemporary psychologists create another common imageof a crowd of white-coated researchers gathered around a maze, carefully recording a white rat's performance. It's another inadequate picture because experimental psychologists today usually work with people, not animals.Moreover, the areas of interest those psychologists are pursuing now encompass every part of the process we use to develop and function as people:How we perceive, remember, and learnHow we select our friends and partners and retain their affection and loveThe things that motivate us as we make our choices in lifeEven how we relate to the vehicles, machinery, computer systems, or workspaces we encounter as we make our livings.

    Central to many spiritual and philosophical traditions and known in English as "meditation," these practices are considered a major means for enhanced awareness and self-mastery. In recent decades, modern science has dramatically confirmed what advanced meditators have long claimed—that meditation, correctly practiced, offers deep and lasting benefits for mental functioning and emotional health, as well as for physical health and well-being.

    Now, let an expert professor lead you in a panoramic exploration of our monetary and financial systems, their inner workings, and their crucial role and presence in your world. As a guiding theme of these 36 content-rich lectures, you observe the ways in which economies require efficient and evolving financial institutions and markets to fulfill their potential.

    But is old age all doom and gloom?Not at all! While it's true that some functions in the aging brain decline, neuroscientists have discovered that many other brain functions remain stable - or even improve - as we age. Furthermore, nurture plays as significant a role as nature, and there are a number of strategies you can implement to stave off declining brain function, including:Incorporating physical activity into your routineEating a healthy dietMaintaining a vibrant social lifeReducing your stressThe science behind the aging brain tells a fascinating - and often counterintuitive - story. Is "aging" a disease or merely a natural occurrence that produces disease-like symptoms? If humans are biologically programmed to survive and thrive, why do we age at all? Is it possible (or even desirable) to "cure" aging altogether?Delve into these questions and more in The Aging Brain. Taught by a neuroscientist and award-winning professor at the University of Michigan, these 12 eye-opening lectures will give you a wealth of new insights into what happens to the brain over time - as well as strategies to mitigate the effects of aging and enhance your quality of life into old age.With a mix of scientific research and practical applications, Professor Polk brings cutting-edge science to life. He takes you down to the cellular and even molecular levels of the brain to show you why certain functions decline, how some aspects of brain aging are under genetic control, and what you can do to prolong your health and keep your mind sharp. Aging affects us all, but you have some control over how it affects you.

    (Great Courses, #660)

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Whether we're buying a pair of jeans, ordering a cup of coffee, selecting a long-distance carrier, applying to college, choosing a doctor, or setting up a 401K, everyday decisions have become increasingly complex due to the overwhelming abundance of choice with which we are presented. In The Paradox of Choice, Barry Schwartz explains why too much of a good thing has proven detrimental to our psychological and emotional well-being. In accessible, engaging, and anecdotal prose, Schwartz explains how a culture that thrives on the availability of constantly evolving options can also foster profound dissatisfaction and self-blame in individuals, which can lead to a paralysis in decision making and, in some cases, depression. With the latest studies on how we make choices in our personal and professional lives, Schwartz offers practical advice on how to focus on the right choices, and how to derive greater satisfaction from choices that we do make.

    With boundless erudition and in delightfully clear prose, Surowiecki ranges across fields as diverse as popular culture, psychology, ant biology, behavioral economics, artificial intelligence, military history, and politics to show how this simple idea offers important lessons for how we live our lives, select our leaders, run our companies, and think about our world.

    If you’ve ever sought a job or hired someone, applied to college or guided your child into a good kindergarten, asked someone out on a date or been asked out, you’ve participated in a kind of market. Most of the study of economics deals with commodity markets, where the price of a good connects sellers and buyers. But what about other kinds of “goods,” like a spot in the Yale freshman class or a position at Google? This is the territory of matching markets, where “sellers” and “buyers” must choose each other, and price isn’t the only factor determining who gets what.Alvin E. Roth is one of the world’s leading experts on matching markets. He has even designed several of them, including the exchange that places medical students in residencies and the system that increases the number of kidney transplants by better matching donors to patients. In Who Gets What — And Why, Roth reveals the matching markets hidden around us and shows how to recognize a good match and make smarter, more confident decisions.

    It’s a sixth sense you use every day, in every personal and professional relationship you have. At its best, this ability allows you to achieve the most important goal in almost any life: connecting, deeply and intimately and honestly, to other human beings. At its worst, it is a source of misunderstanding and unnecessary conflict, leading to damaged relationships and broken dreams. How good are you at knowing the minds of others? How well can you guess what others think of you, know who really likes you, or tell when someone is lying? How well do you really understand the minds of those closest to you, from your spouse to your kids to your best friends? Do you really know what your coworkers, employees, competitors, or clients want?In this illuminating exploration of one of the great mysteries of the human mind, University of Chicago psychologist Nicholas Epley introduces us to what scientists have learned about our ability to understand the most complicated puzzle on the planet—other people—and the surprising mistakes we so routinely make. Why are we sometimes blind to the minds of others, treating them like objects or animals? Why do we sometimes talk to our cars, or the stars, as if there is a mind that can hear us? Why do we so routinely believe that others think, feel, and want what we do when, in fact, they do not? And why do we believe we understand our spouses, family, and friends so much better than we actually do? Mindwise will not turn other people into open books, but it will give you the wisdom to revolutionize how you think about them—and yourself.

    In The Invisible Gorilla, Christopher Chabris and Daniel Simons, creators of one of psychology’s most famous experiments, use remarkable stories and counterintuitive scientific findings to demonstrate an important truth: Our minds don’t work the way we think they do. We think we see ourselves and the world as they really are, but we’re actually missing a whole lot.Again and again, we think we experience and understand the world as it is, but our thoughts are beset by everyday illusions. We write traffic laws and build criminal cases on the assumption that people will notice when something unusual happens right in front of them. We’re sure we know where we were on 9/11, falsely believing that vivid memories are seared into our minds with perfect fidelity. And as a society, we spend billions on devices to train our brains because we’re continually tempted by the lure of quick fixes and effortless self-improvement.  The Invisible Gorilla reveals the myriad ways that our intuitions can deceive us, but it’s much more than a catalog of human failings. Chabris and Simons explain why we succumb to these everyday illusions and what we can do to inoculate ourselves against their effects. Ultimately, the book provides a kind of x-ray vision into our own minds, making it possible to pierce the veil of illusions that clouds our thoughts and to think clearly for perhaps the first time.