Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    These vignettes serve as springboards to many telling perspectives: simple arithmetic puts life-long habits in a dubious new light; higher dimensional geometry helps us see that we're all rather peculiar; nonlinear dynamics explains the narcissism of small differences cascading into very different siblings; logarithms and exponentials yield insight on why we tend to become bored and jaded as we age; and there are tricks and jokes, probability and coincidences, and much more.For fans of Paulos or newcomers to his work, this witty commentary on his life--and yours--is fascinating reading.From the Trade Paperback edition.

    On March 2nd, 2000, the technology company 3Com spun off its insanely profitable hand-held computer subsidiary, Palm. It was one of the most fascinatingly high profile and complex and bungled trades in history, but All The Evil Of This World isn't about the millions and millions of dollars that instantly came into play, it's about seven separate voices from seven separate individuals (an ambitious low-level clerk fresh out of school, a drug-addicted, party-throwing broker with bad taste and gross amounts of money, a seemingly infallible hedge fund manager tortured by his own good luck, to name a few) and the 3Com/Palm trade is what weaves their stories together. They all collide into it and out of it, and it sometimes unites them, implodes them, saves them, or destroys them.This book is not for the faint of heart--these characters are just as troubled and intense and volatile as their surroundings, and the writing pulls not a single punch--but it's an unrelenting examination into a cast of characters that we rarely examine fairly or patiently, and who we often find it easy to dehumanize. The people who inhabit this world aren't cartoon heroes or villains--as it turns out, people who happen to handle large amounts of money for a living--are just people, with shortcomings, just like us.

    * * *Download for FREE on Kindle Unlimited + Free BONUS Inside!* * *From the ~Personality Disorders and Mental Illnesses~ collection and the award winning writer, Paul Sorensen, comes a masterful explanation into the mind of a sociopath! "An excellent depiction of the modern day sociopath!" - Alex Lemmings, Book CritiqueThink of sociopaths, and what’s the first thing that enters your mind? The soulless murderer, lurking in the shadows? Or perhaps you think of the ruthless business man turned hardened criminal, a modern day depiction in recent movies and media.You’d probably be surprised to know that you’ve met a sociopath already, at least one. Are they your classmate, colleague, friend, or even lover? The thing about sociopaths that so few realize is that they are chameleons, masters at blending in. Unless you know them intimately, you will have no idea what’s going on behind the charming façade.In the real world, sociopaths are far more likely to lie to family members, steal from workplaces, cheat on their partners, abuse drugs, and commit fraud, than they ever are to murder someone.Although not all actions by a sociopath are criminal, many are what society considers immoral, and you remain unaware of the sociopaths in your own life at your peril. In this book you will learn what a true sociopath is like, how to recognize them, and how to deal with them – especially if they cannot be avoided. I also discuss how to help yourself heal after you come out the other side.Is there a cure, or even any hope for sociopaths? The short answer is ‘we don’t know’, but there’s a lot more to it than that, and forewarned is forearmed. Don’t let yourself become the next to be manipulated, lied to, or even assaulted or have your life destroyed by the sociopath you know.Topics of Discussion ✓ What is Sociopathy? ✓ Sociopathic Personalities ✓ How to Recognize a Sociopath ✓ Surviving a Sociopath ✓ Clinical Sociopathy ✓ The Cause of Sociopathy ✓ Is there a Cure? ✓ BONUS! Find Inside… Download Your Copy Today! The contents of this book are easily worth over $20 but if you download it right now you'll get it for only $3.99 or FREE on Kindle Unlimited!---------Tags: Sociopath, ASPD

    The world is also indebted to Turing's genius for the modern computer. It was clear that Turing had a remarkable mind from an early age. He taught himself to read in just three weeks. At his first school, the headmistress said, 'I have had clever and hardworking boys, but Alan has genius.' In 1954, he was found dead, poisoned by an apple laced with cyanide. This is the story of his life.

    One island, two unique societies (Norse and Inuit). Only one of these societies would succeed--the other would fail. But how? With his trademark accessibility and comprehensiveness, Diamond documents how environmental damage, climate change, loss of friendly contacts and the rise of hostile ones, and the unique political, economic, and social settings of prehistoric Greenland combine to demonstrate exactly why and how societies choose to fail or succeed. Jared Diamond's latest book, "The World Until Yesterday: What Can We Learn from Traditional Societies?," is available from Viking.

    Subsequent sections deal with integrating factors; dilution and accretion problems; linearization of first order systems; Laplace Transforms; Newton's Interpolation Formulas, more.

    But what if free will doesn't exist? What if our lives are largely predetermined, hardwired in our brains - and our choices over what we eat, who we fall in love with, even what we believe are not real choices at all? Neuroscience is challenging everything we think we know about ourselves, revealing how we make decisions and form our own reality, unaware of the role of our unconscious minds. Did you know, for example, that:* You can carry anxieties and phobias across generations of your family?* Your genes and pleasure and reward receptors in your brain will determine how much you eat?* We can sniff out ideal partners with genes that give our offspring the best chance of survival?Leading neuroscientist Hannah Critchlow draws vividly from everyday life and other experts in their field to show the extraordinary potential, as well as dangers, which come with being able to predict our likely futures - and looking at how we can alter what's in store for us. Lucid, illuminating, awe-inspiring The Science of Fate revolutionises our understanding of who we are - and empowers us to help shape a better future for ourselves and the wider world.

    They will also develop a deeper understanding of the many interconnections that exist among the different areas of psychology. Goodwin's book not only provides accounts of the lives and contributions of psychology's pioneers set into historical context; it also contains original writings by these psychologists, interwoven with informative comments from the author. The text is written in a conversational and engaging style with discrete attention to recent scholarship in the history of psychology, especially that of the past 150 years.

    The book begins with relevant scientific fundamentals and progresses through an exploration of the solar system, stars, galaxies, and cosmology. The Astronomy textbook builds student understanding through the use of relevant analogies, clear and non-technical explanations, and rich illustrations. Mathematics is included in a flexible manner to meet the needs of individual instructors.

    That acclaimed book, as one reviewer put it, "made meteorologists the most unlikely heroes of recent literature." But, what if the warning system failed to provide a clear, timely notice of a major storm? Tragically, that scenario played out in Joplin, Missouri, on May 22, 2011. As a wedding, a high school graduation, and shopping trips were in progress, an invisible monster storm was developing west of the city. When it arrived, many were caught unaware. One hundred sixty-one perished and one thousand were injured. "When the Sirens Were Silent" is the gripping story of the Joplin tornado. It recounts that horrible day with a goal of insuring this does not happen again. The book gives you the tools you need to keep yourself and your family safe. Included are clever lift-out copies of the latest tornado safety rules for homes, schools, and offices.

    This overview has enabled students to make sense more easily of what instructors are doing when they produce proofs, theorems and formulas.

    Each sketch contains Questions and Projects to help you learn more about its topic and to see how its main ideas fit into the bigger picture of history. The 25 short stories are preceded by a 56-page bird's-eye overview of the entire panorama of mathematical history, a whirlwind tour of the most important people, events, and trends that shaped the mathematics we know today. Reading suggestions after each sketch provide starting points for readers who want to pursue a topic further."

    Too bad. Because medicine isn't an industry, it's practically witchcraft. Despite the growth of big pharma, HMOs, and hospital chains, medicine remains the isolated work of individual doctors—and the system is going broke fast.So why is Andy Kessler—the man who told you outrageous stories of Wall Street analysts gone bad in Wall Street Meat and tales from inside a hedge fund in Running Money—poking around medicine for the next big wave of technology?It's because he smells change coming. Heart attacks, strokes, and cancer are a huge chunk of medical spending, yet there's surprisingly little effort to detect disease before it's life threatening. How lame is that—especially since the technology exists today to create computer-generated maps of your heart and colon?Because it's too expensive—for now. But Silicon Valley has turned computing, telecom, finance, music, and media upside down by taking expensive new technologies and making them ridiculously cheap. So why not the $1.8 trillion health care business, where the easiest way to save money is to stop folks from getting sick in the first place?Join Kessler's bizarre search for the next big breakthrough as he tries to keep from passing out while following cardiologists around, cracks jokes while reading mammograms, and watches twitching mice get injected with radioactive probes. Looking for a breakthrough, Kessler even selflessly pokes, scans, and prods himself.CT scans of your heart will identify problems before you have a heart attack or stroke; a nanochip will search your blood for cancer cells--five years before they grow uncontrollably and kill you; and baby boomers can breathe a little easier because it's all starting to happen now.Your doctor can't be certain what's going on inside your body, but technology will. Embedding the knowledge of doctors in silicon will bring a breakout technology to health care, and we will soon see an end of medicine as we know it.

    As a professional C++ developer and former Harvard teaching fellow, I know what you need to know to be a great C++ programmer, and I know how to teach it, one step at a time. I know where people struggle, and why, and how to make it clear. I cover every step of the programming process, including:Getting the tools you need to program and how to use them*Basic language feature like variables, loops and functions*How to go from an idea to code*A clear, understandable explanation of pointers*Strings, file IO, arrays, references*Classes and advanced class design*C++-specific programming patterns*Object oriented programming*Data structures and the standard template library (STL)Key concepts are reinforced with quizzes and over 75 practice problems.