He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    Instead, you get endless rules and regulations, not to mention processes, projects, and technologies that deliver too little, too late, for too much. It's frustrating!How to build a relationship that puts you firmly in control and produces the business results you need? In The 8 Things We Hate About IT, Susan Cramm provides the answers.Start by understanding differences between operational and IT managers - in backgrounds, personality, pressures, and incentives. Cramm explains how differences prevent operational managers and IT from communicating what, why, and how they do what they do.Citing case studies and stories, the author then presents practical strategies for overcoming the difficulty. These include seeing things from your IT partners' perspective, developing a single version of 'truth,' and assuming accountability for IT just as you've done for management of your firm's financial and human resources.Brutally honest, provocative, and filled with sound advice, this book reveals that the key to solving the IT problem is decidedly un-IT: it's a deeper understanding of human behavior, including how to apply your leadership skills to the world of IT.

    How can we originate new ideas, policies, and practices without risking it all?   Using surprising studies and stories spanning business, politics, sports, and entertainment, Grant explores how to recognize a good idea, speak up without getting silenced, build a coalition of allies, choose the right time to act, and manage fear and doubt; how parents and teachers can nurture originality in children; and how leaders can build cultures that welcome dissent. Learn from an entrepreneur who pitches his start-ups by highlighting the reasons not to invest, a woman at Apple who challenged Steve Jobs from three levels below, an analyst who overturned the rule of secrecy at the CIA, a billionaire financial wizard who fires employees for failing to criticize him, and a TV executive who didn’t even work in comedy but saved Seinfeld from the cutting-room floor. The payoff is a set of groundbreaking insights about rejecting conformity and improving the status quo.

    You’ll begin at square one, learning how the Web and web pages work, and then steadily build from there. By the end of the book, you’ll have the skills to create a simple site with multi-column pages that adapt for mobile devices.Learn how to use the latest techniques, best practices, and current web standards—including HTML5 and CSS3. Each chapter provides exercises to help you to learn various techniques, and short quizzes to make sure you understand key concepts.This thoroughly revised edition is ideal for students and professionals of all backgrounds and skill levels, whether you’re a beginner or brushing up on existing skills.Build HTML pages with text, links, images, tables, and formsUse style sheets (CSS) for colors, backgrounds, formatting text, page layout, and even simple animation effectsLearn about the new HTML5 elements, APIs, and CSS3 properties that are changing what you can do with web pagesMake your pages display well on mobile devices by creating a responsive web designLearn how JavaScript works—and why the language is so important in web designCreate and optimize web graphics so they’ll download as quickly as possible

    Bannon had long sensed that deep within America's soul lurked an explosive tension. Cambridge Analytica had the data to prove it, and in 2016 Bannon had a presidential campaign to use as his proving ground.Christopher Wylie might have seemed an unlikely figure to be at the center of such an operation. Canadian and liberal in his politics, he was only twenty-four when he got a job with a London firm that worked with the U.K. Ministry of Defense and was charged putatively with helping to build a team of data scientists to create new tools to identify and combat radical extremism online. In short order, those same military tools were turned to political purposes, and Cambridge Analytica was born. Wylie's decision to become a whistleblower prompted the largest data crime investigation in history. His story is both exposé and dire warning about a sudden problem born of very new and powerful capabilities. It has not only exposed the profound vulnerabilities and profound carelessness in the enormous companies that drive the attention economy, it has also exposed the profound vulnerabilities of democracy itself. What happened in 2016 was just a trial run. Ruthless actors are coming for your data, and they want to control what you think.

    Rhythm guitarist with The Rolling Stones for over 30 years, he is also famous in his own right as a solo artist.

    Dickson's future history of humankind and its ultimate destiny. Now one of its central novels return to print in a two-volume corrected edition.In The Final Encyclopedia the human race is split into three Splinter cultures: the Friendlies, fanatic in their faith; the truth-seeking Exotics; and the warrior Dorsai. But now humanity is threatened by the power-hungry Others, whose triumph would end all human progress.Hal Mayne is an orphan who was raised by three tutors: an Exotic, a Friendly, and a Dorsai. He is the only human capable of uniting humanity against the Others. But only if he is willing to accept his terrifying destiny...as savior of mankind.A towering landmark of future history, The Final Encyclopedia is a novel every SF fan needs to own.

    Their days are defined by a relentless barrage of incoming messages and back-and-forth digital conversations--a state of constant, anxious chatter in which nobody can disconnect, and so nobody has the cognitive bandwidth to perform substantive work. There was a time when tools like email felt cutting edge, but a thorough review of current evidence reveals that the hyperactive hive mind workflow they helped create has become a productivity disaster, reducing profitability and perhaps even slowing overall economic growth. Equally worrisome, it makes us miserable. Humans are simply not wired for constant digital communication.We have become so used to an inbox-driven workday that it's hard to imagine alternatives. But they do exist. Drawing on years of investigative reporting, author and computer science professor Cal Newport makes the case that our current approach to work is broken, then lays out a series of principles and concrete instructions for fixing it. In A World without Email, he argues for a workplace in which clear processes--not haphazard messaging--define how tasks are identified, assigned and reviewed. Each person works on fewer things (but does them better), and aggressive investment in support reduces the ever-increasing burden of administrative tasks. Above all else, important communication is streamlined, and inboxes and chat channels are no longer central to how work unfolds.The knowledge sector's evolution beyond the hyperactive hive mind is inevitable. The question is not whether a world without email is coming (it is), but whether you'll be ahead of this trend. If you're a CEO seeking a competitive edge, an entrepreneur convinced your productivity could be higher, or an employee exhausted by your inbox, A World Without Email will convince you that the time has come for bold changes, and will walk you through exactly how to make them happen.

    As sociologist and network science pioneer Duncan Watts explains in this provocative book, the explanations that we give for the outcomes that we observe in life—explanation that seem obvious once we know the answer—are less useful than they seem.Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry.It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to have been driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals.Only by understanding how and when common sense fails, Watts argues, can we improve how we plan for the future, as well as understand the present—an argument that has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.

     Stories have the power to captivate listeners and to ignite their imaginations. Our brains crave stories - it's how history was recorded before people learned how to write - but what makes a great story? How can you create and deliver stories which keep your listeners transfixed? Based on Intensive Research on Brain Science, Storytelling, Screenwriting and Public Speaking I spent the last four years studying and evaluating thousands of speakers - some great ones, and others who (to put it mildly) needed a lot of help. I read over two hundred books on the art of public speaking, storytelling and screenwriting, attended countless seminars on the subject and devoured every piece of information I could get on the art of presenting. This book is the result of my intensive research. In it, you will find powerful storytelling and speaking techniques that are used by some of the world’s best speakers to help win audiences over to their way of thinking. If you want to master the art of public speaking, you must master the art of storytelling. In this book, you will discover the public speaking and storytelling techniques used by some of the best public speakers in the world. More specifically, you will learn how to: •Create an opening that instantly hooks your audience into your speech •Keep your audience on the edge of their seats with a spellbinding story •Use the suspended story to keep your audience intrigued •Bring your characters to life •Turn your stories into mental movies for your audience •Create and deliver a speech your audience will remember and talk about for years •Keep ratcheting up the suspense by increasing the intensity of your conflicts •Customize your speech (and your story) for your audience •Add organic humor to your speeches and stories without resorting to jokes •Use anchors to make your points memorable •Use tough-watch logic to inspire your audience •Create smooth transitions to ensure your speech flows logically •Create analogies and metaphors to make your message memorable •Give your audience dialogue to build rapport with them •Add a you-focused check-in to relate with your audience •Use vocal variety to spice up your speech •Create a memorable and repeatable catch-phrase using “the rule of opposites” •Add credibility to your speeches and stories •Take an element out of your story and put it into your audience’s lives •Creatively summarize your main points •Tell a story and deliver a speech that your audience will remember and talk about for years What Makes This Book Different? This book is unlike most books on the subjects of public speaking and storytelling.

    From "Bartleby the Scrivener" to The Office, from the steno pool to the open-plan cubicle farm, Cubed is a fascinating, often funny, and sometimes disturbing anatomy of the white-collar world and how it came to be the way it is—and what it might become.In the mid-nineteenth century clerks worked in small, dank spaces called “counting-houses.” These were all-male enclaves, where work was just paperwork. Most Americans considered clerks to be questionable dandies, who didn’t do “real work.” But the joke was on them: as the great historical shifts from agricultural to industrial economies took place, and then from industrial to information economies, the organization of the workplace evolved along with them—and the clerks took over. Offices became rationalized, designed for both greater efficiency in the accomplishments of clerical work and the enhancement of worker productivity. Women entered the office by the millions, and revolutionized the social world from within. Skyscrapers filled with office space came to tower over cities everywhere. Cubed opens our eyes to what is a truly "secret history" of changes so obvious and ubiquitous that we've hardly noticed them. From the wood-paneled executive suite to the advent of the cubicles where 60% of Americans now work (and 93% of them dislike it) to a not-too-distant future where we might work anywhere at any time (and perhaps all the time), Cubed excavates from popular books, movies, comic strips (Dilbert!), and a vast amount of management literature and business history, the reasons why our workplaces are the way they are—and how they might be better.

    For this special hardcover edition, two new appendixes on locales and standard library exception safety (also available at www.research.att.com/ bs/) have been added. The result is complete, authoritative coverage of the C++ language, its standard library, and key design techniques. Based on the ANSI/ISO C++ standard, The C++ Programming Language provides current and comprehensive coverage of all C++ language features and standard library components. For example:abstract classes as interfaces class hierarchies for object-oriented programming templates as the basis for type-safe generic software exceptions for regular error handling namespaces for modularity in large-scale software run-time type identification for loosely coupled systems the C subset of C++ for C compatibility and system-level work standard containers and algorithms standard strings, I/O streams, and numerics C compatibility, internationalization, and exception safety Bjarne Stroustrup makes C++ even more accessible to those new to the language, while adding advanced information and techniques that even expert C++ programmers will find invaluable.

    reveals that what most people think of as "the news" is, in fact, a twisted wing of the entertainment businessIn this characteristically turbocharged new book, celebrated Rolling Stone journalist Matt Taibbi provides an insider's guide to the variety of ways today's mainstream media tells us lies. Part tirade, part confessional, it reveals that what most people think of as "the news" is, in fact, a twisted wing of the entertainment business.In the Internet age, the press have mastered the art of monetizing anger, paranoia, and distrust. Taibbi, who has spent much of his career covering elections in which this kind of manipulative activity is most egregious, provides a rich taxonomic survey of American political journalism's dirty tricks.Heading into a 2020 election season that promises to be a Great Giza Pyramid Complex of invective and digital ugliness, Hate Inc. will be an invaluable antidote to the hidden poisons dished up by those we rely on to tell us what is happening in the world.

    Part intellectual journey, part memoir, Hamlet's BlackBerry sets out to solve what William Powers calls the conundrum of connectedness. Our computers and mobile devices do wonderful things for us. But they also impose an enormous burden, making it harder for us to focus, do our best work, build strong relationships, and find the depth and fulfillment we crave.Hamlet's BlackBerry argues that we need a new way of thinking, an everyday philosophy for life with screens. To find it, Powers reaches into the past, uncovering a rich trove of ideas that have helped people manage and enjoy their connected lives for thousands of years. New technologies have always brought the mix of excitement and stress that we feel today. Drawing on some of history's most brilliant thinkers, from Plato to Shakespeare to Thoreau, he shows that digital connectedness serves us best when it's balanced by its opposite, disconnectedness.Using his own life as laboratory and object lesson, Powers demonstrates why this is the moment to revisit our relationship to screens and mobile technologies, and how profound the rewards of doing so can be. Lively, original, and entertaining, Hamlet's BlackBerry will challenge you to rethink your digital life.

    Proving once and for all that standards-compliant design does not equal dull design, this inspiring tome uses examples from the landmark CSS Zen Garden site as the foundation for discussions on how to create beautiful, progressive CSS-based Web sites.