We chase ‘winning streaks’ that are often just illusions, and we are all too predictable exactly when we try hardest not to be.In the 1970s, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky coined the phrase ‘representativeness’ to describe the psychology of this behaviour. Since then representativeness has been used by auditors to catch people fiddling their tax returns and by hedge fund managers to reap billions from the emotions of small investors. Now Poundstone for the first time makes these techniques fun, easy, and profitable for everyone, in the everyday situations that matter. You’ll learn how to tackle multiple choice tests, what internet passwords to avoid, how to up your odds of winning the office Premier League sweepstakes, and the best ways to invest your money.

    What wonders and adventures await him as he wonders the world, Charlie has many choices he can make. Will he become a hero and champion of the just or will he become a villain feared by all? Find out in this fun and funny Diary of a Fortnite Noob!

    In Standard Deviations, economics professor Gary Smith walks us through the various tricks and traps that people use to back up their own crackpot theories. Sometimes, the unscrupulous deliberately try to mislead us. Other times, the well-intentioned are blissfully unaware of the mischief they are committing. Today, data is so plentiful that researchers spend precious little time distinguishing between good, meaningful indicators and total rubbish. Not only do others use data to fool us, we fool ourselves.With the breakout success of Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise, the once humdrum subject of statistics has never been hotter. Drawing on breakthrough research in behavioral economics by luminaries like Daniel Kahneman and Dan Ariely and taking to task some of the conclusions of Freakonomics author Steven D. Levitt, Standard Deviations demystifies the science behind statistics and makes it easy to spot the fraud all around.

    It is important for every person to save for one’s retirement as one can expect to live for twenty years after one retires as life expectancy of an Indian is going up steadily due to lower infant mortality and better medical care. There is a complete absence of social security safety net for most Indians today, even for those working in Government sector, there is no inflation adjusted pension available anymore. I have tried to simplify the advantages and disadvantages involved in investing your savings in various asset classes. I have deliberately left out two of the most popular forms of investment among middle class Indians 1) Life insurance 2) Real estate Let us consider life insurance first most of us confuse insurance as an instrument of savings, it is not. We have this wrong view because of the tax breaks given to income tax assesses by the Central Government. Insurance is a product that mitigates risk and is sold by the rich to the middle class and is always skewed in the favour of the insurer rather than the insured. A substantial portion of the total money invested by you goes towards paying agent’s commission and premium for insuring you for the risk of mortality. The balance left out is invested in government securities and other securities. Hence the amount of money invested out of the total premium paid is less than half paid by the insurer. The return on money invested by the policy holder is less than half of the money he would have earned either in bonds or fixed deposits. A person who needs insurance is a person whose family will need support in the event of his untimely death. Alternately insurance is required for a person who has debt in form of mortgage and does not want to burden his family in the event of his passing. The product which covers these risks is called term insurance. One should not buy insurance to avoid taxes as there is better tax saving tools available. Real estate is also considered as a good investment by several retail investors but nothing can be further from the truth. Nobody makes money by buying plots in the middle of nowhere. The easy availability of mortgages from the nineties and the tax breaks given by the Central Government on housing loans has created an unparalleled boom in the residential market. There is now a painful correction process under way in that sector. The price of land is reflexively connected to availability of money. The lower the cost of money, greater the returns in real estate. Buying plots in the middle of nowhere is similar to buying lottery tickets as investment. Land cannot be liquidated immediately into cash at a short notice to meet urgent requirements. Cost of maintenance and protection of real estate from illegal occupation is prohibitive and time consuming. Verification of title deeds to the property is a complex process and needs sound legal advice. You should have a house to live and another to collect rent as rent is equivalent of inflation adjusted pension. The return on investment generated in the three different asset classes over 25 years would be in the following order 1) Equities 2) Gold and finally 3) Debt instruments. I enjoyed writing this book as a companion volume to my first book. It is my fond hope that you enjoy reading this book.

    Economics, finance, business & management

    Years later, Ma has inspired not only a bestselling novel and hit movie, but has also started three different companies—the latest of which, Citizen Sports, is an innovative marriage of sports, betting, and digital technology—and launched a successful corporate speaking career. The House Advantage reveals Ma's cutting-edge mathematical insights into the world of statistics and makes them applicable to a wide business audience. He argues that numbers are the key to analyzing nearly everything in the world of business, from how to spot and profit from global market inefficiencies to having multiple backup plans in anticipation of every probability. Ma's stories and business lessons are as intriguing as they are universally applicable.

    For the media, statistics are routinely 'damning', 'horrifying', or, occasionally, 'encouraging'. Yet, for all their ubiquity, most of us really don't know what to make of statistics. Exploring the history, mathematics, philosophy and practical use of statistics, Eileen Magnello - accompanied by Bill Mayblin's intelligent graphic illustration - traces the rise of statistics from the ancient Babylonians, Egyptians and Chinese, to the censuses of Romans and the Greeks, and the modern emergence of the term itself in Europe. She explores the 'vital statistics' of, in particular, William Farr, and the mathematical statistics of Karl Pearson and R.A. Fisher.She even tells how knowledge of statistics can prolong one's life, as it did for evolutionary biologist Stephen Jay Gould, given eight months to live after a cancer diagnoses in 1982 - and he lived until 2002. This title offers an enjoyable, surprise-filled tour through a subject that is both fascinating and crucial to understanding our world.

    What made ancient India the Golden Bird in the first place? What did China, the Land of the Dragon, have in common with India, and when did these two ancient civilizations diverge on their paths to global success? Raina Singhwi Jain discusses the immediate need and measures for a quantum jump in our attitude towards development. While conventional wisdom suggests improvements in manufacturing, the ease of doing business and digital technology, Jain goes a step further, drawing surprising parallels between other areas that beg our attention—process engineering, communication design, journalism, and education. This is a work of reflection and a call to action, urging Indian denizens to act now for a revival of the genius that lies dormant within each one of us.

    Peter Bernstein has written a comprehensive history of man's efforts to understand risk and probability, beginning with early gamblers in ancient Greece, continuing through the 17th-century French mathematicians Pascal and Fermat and up to modern chaos theory. Along the way he demonstrates that understanding risk underlies everything from game theory to bridge-building to winemaking.

    In this iconoclastic book Stuart Sutherland analyses causes of irrationality and examines why we are irrational, the different kinds of irrationality, the damage it does us and the possible cures.

    Darrell Huff runs the gamut of every popularly used type of statistic, probes such things as the sample study, the tabulation method, the interview technique, or the way the results are derived from the figures, and points up the countless number of dodges which are used to fool rather than to inform.

    What began more than sixty years ago as a modest proposal that a mathematician and an economist write a short paper together blossomed, in 1944, when Princeton University Press published Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. In it, John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern conceived a groundbreaking mathematical theory of economic and social organization, based on a theory of games of strategy. Not only would this revolutionize economics, but the entirely new field of scientific inquiry it yielded--game theory--has since been widely used to analyze a host of real-world phenomena from arms races to optimal policy choices of presidential candidates, from vaccination policy to major league baseball salary negotiations. And it is today established throughout both the social sciences and a wide range of other sciences.This sixtieth anniversary edition includes not only the original text but also an introduction by Harold Kuhn, an afterword by Ariel Rubinstein, and reviews and articles on the book that appeared at the time of its original publication in the New York Times, tthe American Economic Review, and a variety of other publications. Together, these writings provide readers a matchless opportunity to more fully appreciate a work whose influence will yet resound for generations to come.

    There's a wonderful mix of science, history and wit, all in bite-sized chapters on a broad range of topics.Urgent and essential, Numbers Don't Lie inspires readers to interrogate what they take to be true in these significant times. Smil is on a mission to make facts matter, because after all, numbers may not lie, but which truth do they convey?'The best book to read to better understand our world. Once in a while a book comes along that helps us see our planet more clearly. By showing us numbers about science, health, green technology and more, Smil's book does just that. It should be on every bookshelf!' Linda Yueh, author of The Great Economists'He is rigorously numeric, using data to illuminate every topic he writes about. The word "polymath" was invented to describe people like him' Bill Gates 'Important' Mark Zuckerberg, on Energy 'One of the world's foremost thinkers on development history and a master of statistical analysis . . . The nerd's nerd' Guardian 'There is perhaps no other academic who paints pictures with numbers like Smil' Guardian 'In a world of specialized intellectuals, Smil is an ambitious and astonishing polymath who swings for fences . . . They're among the most data-heavy books you'll find, with a remarkable way of framing basic facts' Wired 'He's a slayer of bullshit' David Keith, Gordon McKay Professor of Applied Physics & Professor of Public Policy, Harvard UniversityVaclav Smil is Distinguished Professor Emeritus at the University of Manitoba. He is the author of over forty books on topics including energy, environmental and population change, food production and nutrition, technical innovation, risk assessment and public policy. No other living scientist has had more books (on a wide variety of topics) reviewed in Nature. A Fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, in 2010 he was named by Foreign Policy as one of the Top 100 Global Thinkers. This is his first book for a more general readership.

    With it you can prime yourself with the key concepts of statistics before getting involved in the associated calculations. Using words and diagrams instead of figures, formulae and equations, Derek Rowntree makes statistics accessible to those who are non-mathematicians. And just to get you into the spirit of things. Rowntree has included questions in his argument; answer them as you go and you will be able to tell how far you have mastered the subject.

    The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile,and The Bed of Procrustes.