Essentially, you are estimating a probability, but then updating that estimate based on other things that you know. This book is designed to give you an intuitive understanding of how to use Bayes Theorem. It starts with the definition of what Bayes Theorem is, but the focus of the book is on providing examples that you can follow and duplicate. Most of the examples are calculated in Excel, which is useful for updating probability if you have dozens or hundreds of data points to roll in.

    This will let children know that there is a world out there they do not even know about. This will also make children wonder what goes on in these strange places. Some children will even develop the goal to visit some of these places when they get older. Most children do not know that there are strange places all over the earth.

    The 1980s were certainly loud, often garish and utterly fabulous - no matter how embarrassing the outfits were.There are so many elements, which made the 80s a truly great decade, but one of the greatest contributions, if not the greatest, is the mass introduction of affordable 8-bit home micro computers.These curious machines of geekdom changed the way we regarded computers and technology. No longer were they the sole perverse of tweed jacket clad scientists sporting unruly beards, micro computers were now forming a staple inventory in millions of homes.Much of the technology that we enjoy today, such as desktop computers, notebooks, tablets, gaming consoles and smart phones, all of which are often taken for granted, can be traced back to this innovative decade.If you were a child of the 80s and remember the joy of receiving your very first home computer or maybe a young adult who fondly remembers the excitement, then you will appreciate this unabashed reminiscence of a simpler time whose adolescent technological was on the cusp of great advancements.This book is intended as celebration and reflection of all the computer technology that made the 80s such a wonderful, pioneering period and follows the journey of a self confessed, teenaged computer geek who experienced and enjoyed every ground breaking moment, including publishing his own software.10 Print “The 80s are fab!”20 Goto 10RunAuthor's Comments:The current edition is dated 31st January 2016 and has been edited based on customer feedback.

    is an American Board of Emergency Medicine certified ED doctor. His journey began in the mid-1970s, when he chose to pursue a career in medicine. In his youthful perspective, he came to regard doctors as the good guys, the ones who healed people and saved lives. He knew he’d be one of those good guys one day. Now, with a career spanning more than thirty years, he works as an emergency-room physician in North Carolina. In A License to Heal: Random Memories of an ER Doctor, Bentley describes the real world of emergency medicine from the viewpoint of a practicing physician. This memoir is filled with real-life stories of the ER, including life and death, triumph and tragedy. Meet a man named Solomon Darby, who spoke to long-dead relatives during his own near-death experience. Bentley also recalls the heartbreaking story of a young widow who desperately needed to understand and cope with the death of her husband. Amid the grief, there are also episodes of great humor and human comedy. In the dynamic world of emergency medicine, there is a great deal of pain, blood, and tragedy, but there is also hope, compassion, and excitement—for both the patients and the staff."

    Richard Furman is a vascular surgeon with decades of experience. But his personal journey into living younger longer began with a tight pair of pants. Rather than go up a size, he decided to get back to his ideal weight. He changed how he ate. He began to exercise regularly. He started intensive research into what it takes to prevent the kind of conditions his patients had. What he found changed his life . . . and will change yours.Do you want to be healthy and active all of your life?Do you want to enjoy not just long life but quality life?Do you want to be there—wholly there—for your family and friends?Aging is inevitable, but heart disease, cancer, diabetes, dementia, stroke, erectile dysfunction, and other age- and obesity-related problems are not! Simple, sustainable changes you make today can mean the difference between enjoying time with friends and family, and wasting it in doctors’ offices and hospitals.

    this is one of those rare books that will change your beliefs - and in doing so will change your life. tHE ANt AND tHE FERRARI offers readers a clear, navigable path through the big questions that confront us all today. What is the meaning of life? Can we be ethical beings in today's world? Can we know if there is life after death? Is there such a thing as Absolute truth? What caused the Big Bang and why should you care?

     This book gives the simplest exercises on the market to open your hips with effective correctives you can do anywhere. This program was designed to not only be convenient, but also comprehensive. It breaks down an easy set of progressions and goals to get the muscles on your pelvis, lower back, and hips/upper legs to function. Doing these exercises will: -restore balance to your body -instantly improve your posture and hip mobility -strengthen your hips in addition to opening them leaving you feeling "tied together" and fantastic.

    Prepare for exams and succeed in your mathematics course with this comprehensive solutions manual! Featuring worked out-solutions to the problems in CALCULUS: THE CLASSIC EDITION, 5th Edition, this manual shows you how to approach and solve problems using the same step-by-step explanations found in your textbook examples.

    These vignettes serve as springboards to many telling perspectives: simple arithmetic puts life-long habits in a dubious new light; higher dimensional geometry helps us see that we're all rather peculiar; nonlinear dynamics explains the narcissism of small differences cascading into very different siblings; logarithms and exponentials yield insight on why we tend to become bored and jaded as we age; and there are tricks and jokes, probability and coincidences, and much more.For fans of Paulos or newcomers to his work, this witty commentary on his life--and yours--is fascinating reading.From the Trade Paperback edition.

    * * *Download for FREE on Kindle Unlimited + Free BONUS Inside!* * *From the ~Personality Disorders and Mental Illnesses~ collection and the award winning writer, Paul Sorensen, comes a masterful explanation into the mind of a sociopath! "An excellent depiction of the modern day sociopath!" - Alex Lemmings, Book CritiqueThink of sociopaths, and what’s the first thing that enters your mind? The soulless murderer, lurking in the shadows? Or perhaps you think of the ruthless business man turned hardened criminal, a modern day depiction in recent movies and media.You’d probably be surprised to know that you’ve met a sociopath already, at least one. Are they your classmate, colleague, friend, or even lover? The thing about sociopaths that so few realize is that they are chameleons, masters at blending in. Unless you know them intimately, you will have no idea what’s going on behind the charming façade.In the real world, sociopaths are far more likely to lie to family members, steal from workplaces, cheat on their partners, abuse drugs, and commit fraud, than they ever are to murder someone.Although not all actions by a sociopath are criminal, many are what society considers immoral, and you remain unaware of the sociopaths in your own life at your peril. In this book you will learn what a true sociopath is like, how to recognize them, and how to deal with them – especially if they cannot be avoided. I also discuss how to help yourself heal after you come out the other side.Is there a cure, or even any hope for sociopaths? The short answer is ‘we don’t know’, but there’s a lot more to it than that, and forewarned is forearmed. Don’t let yourself become the next to be manipulated, lied to, or even assaulted or have your life destroyed by the sociopath you know.Topics of Discussion ✓ What is Sociopathy? ✓ Sociopathic Personalities ✓ How to Recognize a Sociopath ✓ Surviving a Sociopath ✓ Clinical Sociopathy ✓ The Cause of Sociopathy ✓ Is there a Cure? ✓ BONUS! Find Inside… Download Your Copy Today! The contents of this book are easily worth over $20 but if you download it right now you'll get it for only $3.99 or FREE on Kindle Unlimited!---------Tags: Sociopath, ASPD

    No matter your age, if you're a "slow loser" who wants to speed off stubborn pounds and keep those pounds off for good, then this book is for you.Inside Radical Metabolism you'll discover which "forbidden fats," forgotten flavors, and fat-busting beverages you must eat and drink in order to supercharge your metabolism--making weight loss easier than ever before. But weight loss is just the beginning. With this easy-to-follow program you'll also enjoy greater energy, balanced mood, healthier skin, and protection against autoimmunity, gallbladder issues, type II diabetes, and other devastating health problems.A breeze to use, the Radical Metabolism program consists of: a 4-day Radical Intensive Cleanse designed to rest your digestive tract and detoxify your body a 21-Day Radical Reboot where you'll learn exactly what combinations of foods to eat for results you can feel and see a Maintenance Plan for a radically healthy life With menu plans, 50 sumptuous recipes, an extensive resource section, Radical Metabolism has everything you need to say supercharge your metabolism and transform your body into a fat-burning dynamo in just 21 days.

    Harper focuses on nutrient-dense foods that are big in flavor and allow certain kinds of carbohydrates at targeted times during the day.In The Super Carb Diet you'll find: - How to eat carbs earlier in the day for sustained energy- A list of super-carb foods- Limited snacks but larger and more varied meals- A way of eating that's sustainable- Super-charged weight lossThe Super Carb Diet will keep millions of dieters from giving up after Week One. The program leads you through precise plate proportions, balancing good protein, low fat, high fiber, and nutrient density. Not only will you lose significant weight and whittle your waistline, you'll walk away from the table feeling happy and full.

    

    Children are given a well-rounded understanding of this beautiful fish: its anatomy, feeding habits and behavior. The following Sharks are featured:* The swift Black Tip Reef Shark* The dangerous Bull Shark* The resourceful Hammerhead Shark* The feared Great White Shark* The stealthy Lemon Shark* The fanged Nurse Shark* The gentle Whale Shark* The deceptive Wobbegong

    After a brief tale of her own introduction to the paranormal, the author shares funny, poignant, and insightful words straight from the spirit people themselves. Together, the living and the dead seek forgiveness, solve family mysteries, find closure, settle scores, and come together for birthdays, anniversaries, and graduations. Quoting directly from her readings and séances, Priscilla reports the spirit perspective on mental illness, suicide, religion, and even the afterlife itself. For those readers interested in developing their own spirit communication skills, the last section of the book offers meditations and exercises used by the author herself, both personally and with her students. "It Will All Make Sense When You’re Dead" is chock-full of simple and entertaining wisdom, showing us how to live for today, with light hearts and kindness.