Not When It's Your Own Daughter Missing. A front-page murder is assigned to LAPD Detective Harley Ellis and her partner. Hollywood studio head Ira Spielman has been murdered. His widow says he had no enemies. Except one, says Harley, and she must discover who that is and why. She knows he sometimes interviewed actresses alone in his Hollywood office. Harley wonders: did he make a wrong move? It's not much, but it's a starting point. She would know: her own daughter had a screen test with Spielman before he was killed. Robbery-Homicide Division begins an investigation that obtains the name of Harley's daughter. Is she a suspect? No, but she's a person of interest. Charges get filed. The LAPD investigation is put beneath the microscope. Will Harley's investigation of a totally different suspect be vindicated? The amazing conclusion to this thoughtful investigation culminates in a final chapter few will see coming. Second Edition With Editorial Changes If you enjoyed Thaddeus Murfee you're going to love this tough, brilliant detective, Harley Ellis. John Ellsworth is a Goodreads writer with over 56,000 ratings and a USA Today Bestseller and a Kindle All-Star and an Amazon featured author. Fans of Tracy Crosswhite and Kinsey Millhone will enjoy this riveting saga of history, suspense, and love.

    He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the "prediction paradox": The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good-or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary-and dangerous-science.Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

    It also covers the essentials of using, cultivating, and cooking with weed; identifying pot varieties; and understanding legal and health issues. Handy and to the point, The Little Black Book of Marijuana gives you "the dope" on pot, from possible side effects and risks to medical uses and their efficacy. Learn about cannabis history and the issues around its legalization. Includes full-color photos of marijuana varieties."From cover to cover, The Little Black Book of Marijuana delivers exactly what it promises: An easy-to-read, well-researched informatively entertaining 'essential guide to the world of cannabis'....[I]f a cannabis fan was forced to choose one piece of weed-themed literature to bring with him or her to a deserted island (or even just on a long plane ride), it should probably be this one." --Seattle Weekly Blog"Calling Steve Elliott an accomplished journalist in the fields of drug policy reform and medical cannabis would be a significant understatement....[A]s far as broad-spectrum introductions go you’d be hard-pressed to find better." --4Evergreen Group

    A dark truth that threatens to unleash.Robin Lane has had enough of impossible cases and stubborn clients. Wishing to escape her own mistakes, her return to her hometown takes a turn when she must defend an innocent woman accused of a brutal murder. For Robin is having a hard time believing that her high school friend plunged a knife twenty-seven times in a man's chest.As the case unfolds, dark confessions come to the surface. Her client knows too much, but says too little. More witnesses come to light, but it all seems hopeless against the biggest coverup the state has ever seen. Because two can keep a secret if one of them is dead.Cynical Justice is Freya's debut novel in the Robin Lane series of blood-pumping legal thrillers. If you are an avid fan of strong female leads, action-packed courtroom drama, riveting characters and mind-blowing murder mystery, then you'll love Freya's intriguing story.

    The slaughter of Joan and John Stirland revealed an evil empire of powerful ganglords, contract killings and police corruption. At its dark heart was the East Midlands city of Nottingham. A prosperous centre of business, education and leisure, Nottingham had fallen under the shadow of vicious gangsters. Eventually its police were investigating so many murders that their boss had to appeal to other forces for help, and the influx of drugs and weapons saw the city labelled "Gun Capital UK".HOODS traces the roots of the gangs, revealing how economic dislocation and the clash of cultures between working-class white residents and black immigrants from the 1950s onwards created an alienated underclass. In the 1990s, a more malignant breed of organised criminal emerged. Crime families who had been involved in armed robbery, protection rackets and extortion now sought to control the recreational drugs trade and forged links across Europe to import wholesale quantities of cocaine, ecstasy and amphetamines. By 2002, shootings were running at one a week. HOODS uncovers how outlaw Yardies pioneered the sale of crack cocaine and imported the ruthless violence of the Jamaican ghettos; how young black gangs from the so-called NG Triangle of the Meadows, St Ann’s and Radford areas clashed in a series of turf wars; how the shadowy Dawes Cartel built a lucrative international drugs empire; and how the Bestwood Cartel and its terrifying leader, Colin Gunn, corrupted police officers and left dead and maimed in its wake. As local police struggled to cope with the mayhem, MI5 and the National Crime Squad launched a massive undercover investigation into the Nottingham ‘untouchables’. It led ultimately to the dismantling of some of the UK’s most powerful crime networks. HOODS is a stark account of what happens when the rule of the gun supplants the rule of law and fear stalks the streets.

    How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

    Too often, that power is abused and the numbers bamboozle. This book shows how to see straight through them - and how to seize the power for yourself. Public spending, health risks, environmental disasters, who is rich, who is poor, Aids or war deaths, pensions, teenage offenders, the best and worst schools and hospitals, immigration - life comes in numbers. The trick to seeing through them is strikingly simple. It is to apply something everyone has - the lessons of their own experience. Using vivid and everyday images and ideas, this book shows how close to hand insight and understanding can be, and how we can all use what is familiar to make sense of what is baffling. It is also a revelation - of how little the principles are understood even by many who claim to know better. This book is written by the team who created and present the hugely popular BBC Radio 4 series, More or Less.

    Determined to prove her client innocent, Ashley delves into the secret life and relationships of the quiet teen. And turns up more questions than answers.Meanwhile, Ashley's longtime friend and sometimes rival, police officer Katie Mickey, investigates the alleged murder with the aim of ensuring Rachel's conviction. Despite working against each other, the two women begin to share the same awful suspicions, and the tragic case takes an even darker turn when rumors surface that the father of Rachel's baby is an adult in her life.Then Ashley falls victim to a personal attack, and she and Mickey find themselves racing to unmask a different, far more dangerous offender.Readers will stay up late into the night untangling the web of deception and betrayal in Undetermined Death.

    Lucy is a Chelsea girl, brought up off the King's Road in the seventies when punk was in full bloom. Her family comes in the wonderful tradition of English eccentrics. In Heads and Straights , she creates a funny, moving account of a family eager to escape the confines of class. Through interlocking tales of their extravagant and often self-destructive journeys away from the Circle line stops of Sloane Square, South Kensington and Gloucester Road, Lucy evokes the collision between conformism and bohemian excess and the complicated class antipathies that flourished in that particular time and place. In the end we are left wondering - is it ever possible to escape, or do we, in our travels, simply loop back on ourselves?

    Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they’re commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month.     But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of “miracle” is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.     Together, these constitute Hand’s groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.     An irresistible adventure into the laws behind “chance” moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it’s in the world of business and finance or you’re merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.

    Dozens of examples in innumeracy show us how it affects not only personal economics and travel plans, but explains mis-chosen mates, inappropriate drug-testing, and the allure of pseudo-science.

    

    But all too often, even the most respected publications present numbers that are miscalculated, misinterpreted, hyped, or simply misleading. Following on the heels of his highly acclaimed Damned Lies and Statistics and More Damned Lies and Statistics, Joel Best now offers this practical field guide to help everyone identify questionable statistics. Entertaining, informative, and concise, Stat-Spotting is essential reading for people who want to be more savvy and critical consumers of news and information.Stat-Spotting features:* Pertinent examples from today's news, including the number of deaths reported in Iraq, the threat of secondhand smoke, the increase in the number of overweight Americans, and many more* A commonsense approach that doesn't require advanced math or statistics

    At a summer tea party in Cambridge, England, a guest states that tea poured into milk tastes different from milk poured into tea. Her notion is shouted down by the scientific minds of the group. But one man, Ronald Fisher, proposes to scientifically test the hypothesis. There is no better person to conduct such an experiment, for Fisher is a pioneer in the field of statistics.The Lady Tasting Tea spotlights not only Fisher's theories but also the revolutionary ideas of dozens of men and women which affect our modern everyday lives. Writing with verve and wit, David Salsburg traces breakthroughs ranging from the rise and fall of Karl Pearson's theories to the methods of quality control that rebuilt postwar Japan's economy, including a pivotal early study on the capacity of a small beer cask at the Guinness brewing factory. Brimming with intriguing tidbits and colorful characters, The Lady Tasting Tea salutes the spirit of those who dared to look at the world in a new way.

    That’s a mistake, Tim Harford says in The Data Detective. We shouldn’t be suspicious of statistics—we need to understand what they mean and how they can improve our lives: they are, at heart, human behavior seen through the prism of numbers and are often “the only way of grasping much of what is going on around us.” If we can toss aside our fears and learn to approach them clearly—understanding how our own preconceptions lead us astray—statistics can point to ways we can live better and work smarter.As “perhaps the best popular economics writer in the world” (New Statesman), Tim Harford is an expert at taking complicated ideas and untangling them for millions of readers. In The Data Detective, he uses new research in science and psychology to set out ten strategies for using statistics to erase our biases and replace them with new ideas that use virtues like patience, curiosity, and good sense to better understand ourselves and the world. As a result, The Data Detective is a big-idea book about statistics and human behavior that is fresh, unexpected, and insightful.