This updated edition of Ross's classic bestseller provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes, and shows how probability theory can be applied to the study of phenomena in fields such as engineering, computer science, management science, the physical and social sciences, and operations research. With the addition of several new sections relating to actuaries, this text is highly recommended by the Society of Actuaries.This book now contains a new section on compound random variables that can be used to establish a recursive formula for computing probability mass functions for a variety of common compounding distributions; a new section on hiddden Markov chains, including the forward and backward approaches for computing the joint probability mass function of the signals, as well as the Viterbi algorithm for determining the most likely sequence of states; and a simplified approach for analyzing nonhomogeneous Poisson processes. There are also additional results on queues relating to the conditional distribution of the number found by an M/M/1 arrival who spends a time t in the system; inspection paradox for M/M/1 queues; and M/G/1 queue with server breakdown. Furthermore, the book includes new examples and exercises, along with compulsory material for new Exam 3 of the Society of Actuaries.This book is essential reading for professionals and students in actuarial science, engineering, operations research, and other fields in applied probability.

    Never again will you order the Poisson Distribution in a French restaurant!This updated version features all new material.

    While Brexit and the unpopularity of opposition leader Jeremy Corbyn are factors, there is a more nuanced story explored in Broken Heartlands of how these northern communities have fared through generational shifts, struggling public services, deindustrialisation, and the changing nature of work. Featuring interviews with people from the red wall and the viewpoints of major political figures from both parties, Payne explores the role these social and economic forces, decades in the making, have played in upheaving the political landscape.

    Based on Don Lowry's True ColorsÒ model, you will discover tips for understanding, appreciating and relating to each style. Lighthearted anecdotes convey concepts in �real life� situations, offering immediately useful methods for resolving conflicts, opening lines of communication, and enhancing personal effectiveness. Convenient reference lists and a set of color character cards are included for easy determination of your True Colors spectrum. The end result is a celebration of the uniqueness in yourself and others.

    More and more leading businesses today use estimation questions in interviews to test applicants' abilities to think on their feet. Guesstimation enables anyone with basic math and science skills to estimate virtually anything--quickly--using plausible assumptions and elementary arithmetic.Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam present an eclectic array of estimation problems that range from devilishly simple to quite sophisticated and from serious real-world concerns to downright silly ones. How long would it take a running faucet to fill the inverted dome of the Capitol? What is the total length of all the pickles consumed in the US in one year? What are the relative merits of internal-combustion and electric cars, of coal and nuclear energy? The problems are marvelously diverse, yet the skills to solve them are the same. The authors show how easy it is to derive useful ballpark estimates by breaking complex problems into simpler, more manageable ones--and how there can be many paths to the right answer. The book is written in a question-and-answer format with lots of hints along the way. It includes a handy appendix summarizing the few formulas and basic science concepts needed, and its small size and French-fold design make it conveniently portable. Illustrated with humorous pen-and-ink sketches, Guesstimation will delight popular-math enthusiasts and is ideal for the classroom.

    With a new introduction, three new chapters, modernized language and methods throughout, and an appendix of challenging and enjoyable practice problems, Calculus Made Easy has been thoroughly updated for the modern reader.

    But many people use data in ways they don't even understand, meaning they aren't getting the most from it. Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way will change that.This book will give you a complete understanding of Bayesian statistics through simple explanations and un-boring examples. Find out the probability of UFOs landing in your garden, how likely Han Solo is to survive a flight through an asteroid shower, how to win an argument about conspiracy theories, and whether a burglary really was a burglary, to name a few examples.By using these off-the-beaten-track examples, the author actually makes learning statistics fun. And you'll learn real skills, like how to:- How to measure your own level of uncertainty in a conclusion or belief- Calculate Bayes theorem and understand what it's useful for- Find the posterior, likelihood, and prior to check the accuracy of your conclusions- Calculate distributions to see the range of your data- Compare hypotheses and draw reliable conclusions from themNext time you find yourself with a sheaf of survey results and no idea what to do with them, turn to Bayesian Statistics the Fun Way to get the most value from your data.

    Out of Control chronicles the dawn of a new era in which the machines and systems that drive our economy are so complex and autonomous as to be indistinguishable from living things.

    While many of the mathematicians and software engineers on Wall Street failed when their abstractions turned ugly in practice, a special breed of physicists has a much deeper history of revolutionizing finance. Taking us from fin-de-siècle Paris to Rat Pack-era Las Vegas, from wartime government labs to Yippie communes on the Pacific coast, Weatherall shows how physicists successfully brought their science to bear on some of the thorniest problems in economics, from options pricing to bubbles.The crisis was partly a failure of mathematical modeling. But even more, it was a failure of some very sophisticated financial institutions to think like physicists. Models—whether in science or finance—have limitations; they break down under certain conditions. And in 2008, sophisticated models fell into the hands of people who didn’t understand their purpose, and didn’t care. It was a catastrophic misuse of science.The solution, however, is not to give up on models; it's to make them better. Weatherall reveals the people and ideas on the cusp of a new era in finance. We see a geophysicist use a model designed for earthquakes to predict a massive stock market crash. We discover a physicist-run hedge fund that earned 2,478.6% over the course of the 1990s. And we see how an obscure idea from quantum theory might soon be used to create a far more accurate Consumer Price Index.Both persuasive and accessible, The Physics of Wall Street is riveting history that will change how we think about our economic future.

    Myerson introduces, clarifies, and synthesizes the extraordinary advances made in the subject over the past fifteen years, presents an overview of decision theory, and comprehensively reviews the development of the fundamental models: games in extensive form and strategic form, and Bayesian games with incomplete information.Game Theory will be useful for students at the graduate level in economics, political science, operations research, and applied mathematics. Everyone who uses game theory in research will find this book essential.

    Open any newspaper, and what do you find? Violence and crime, child abuse and neglect, expenses scandals, addiction, fraud and corruption, environmental melt-down Is Britain indeed broken? How did modern society get to this point? Who is to blame? How can we change? We have come to inhabit a culture of selfish individualism which has confused material well-being with happiness. As society became bigger and more competitive, working life was cut off from child-rearing and the new economics ignored people's emotional needs. We have lived with this culture so long that it is hard to imagine it being any different. Yet we are now at a turning point where the need for change is becoming urgent. If we are to build a more reflective and collaborative society, Gerhardt argues, we need to support the caring qualities that are learnt in early life and integrate them into our political and economic thinking. Inspiring and thought-provoking, The Selfish Society sets out a roadmap to a more positive and compassionate future.

    Now in this intensely topical book, he surveys a much more troubled scene with more anger and impatience. He looks at the whole panoply of power, from an embattled Number Ten to the murky intelligence spooks, from corporate boardrooms to banks and pension funds. Who Runs This Place? is written not just for those inside the Westminster Bubble. It is addressed in fresh and vivid terms to those who need to understand the institutions and careers they are choosing, and the bosses who will influence their whole future. And it comes at a time when the British people are clamoring to comprehend the secretive groups that pull the levers, behind the facades.

    In Making Numbers Count, Chip Heath argues that it's crucial for us all to be able to interpret and communicate numbers and stats more effectively so that data comes alive. By combining years of research into making ideas stick with a deep understanding of how the brain really works, Heath has discerned six critical principles that will give anyone the tools to communicate numbers with more transparency and meaning. These ideas - including simplicity, concreteness and familiarity - reveal what's compelling about a number and show how to transform it into its most understandable form. And if we can do this when we're using numbers, Heath tells us, then the idea of data won't drive people to panic. We're not hungry for numbers - there's an unfathomable amount of information being generated each year - but we are starved for meaning. The ability to communicate and understand numbers has never mattered more.

    It emphasizes forms suitable for students and researchers whose interest lies in solving equations rather than in general theory. Solutions to odd-numbered problems appear at the end. 1957 edition.

    The Tall Book also offers well-researched explanations into the great unanswered questions of tallness, including: Why are people tall to begin with? How have tall people figured throughout history? Why are CEOs so tall? And how does tallness affect the dating game? Filled with illustrative graphics, charts, and piles of tall miscellanea and factoids, The Tall Book is a wonderful and much-needed exploration of life from on high.