Reflecting the need for even minor programming in today's model-based statistics, the book pushes readers to perform step-by-step calculations that are usually automated. This unique computational approach ensures that readers understand enough of the details to make reasonable choices and interpretations in their own modeling work.The text presents generalized linear multilevel models from a Bayesian perspective, relying on a simple logical interpretation of Bayesian probability and maximum entropy. It covers from the basics of regression to multilevel models. The author also discusses measurement error, missing data, and Gaussian process models for spatial and network autocorrelation.By using complete R code examples throughout, this book provides a practical foundation for performing statistical inference. Designed for both PhD students and seasoned professionals in the natural and social sciences, it prepares them for more advanced or specialized statistical modeling.Web ResourceThe book is accompanied by an R package (rethinking) that is available on the author's website and GitHub. The two core functions (map and map2stan) of this package allow a variety of statistical models to be constructed from standard model formulas.

    This is NOT, your typical love story, but this is OUR story. The Story Of Us. I love him, from the instant I set eyes on him when I was just 11 years old I have loved him and nothing will ever change that, he owns me, he owns my heart and he owns my body and no matter how many lies are told, no matter how many people conspire to keep us apart, despite the fame and the distance, we will find a way. Carnage, is an edgy coming of age love story that breaks all the rules and transcends the generations . Georgia and Sean's story will stay with you long after you read the final word. An emotional, gut wrenching read. You will need tissues. Contains scenes they may offend some, you have been warned. CARNAGE BOOK 2... When your world, your life and all of your hopes and dreams for the future are ripped out from under you, how do you go on? Death without dying is not only the most painful kind of death, it's also the most painful kind of life and I don't know if I'm strong enough to live it. I spend my lonely days and nights trying to make sense of what my life has become. Do I have the strength to move forward into the light, or should I just let the darkness take me? I'm Georgia Rae Layton McCarthy and this is the story of me, just me. I'm no longer a part of an us, it's just me. Alone. By myself. MARLEY... So, they want me to write a book? They want to know about my band, my life, my loves and my losses. But they have no idea what they’re asking for. If I give them what they want, they’ll get so much more than the sex and drugs and the rock and roll they’re expecting. They’ll get the secrets that I’ve kept for so long, they’ll get an insight into the person I really am, or at least was. They think they know my story, they know nothing. If I do this, if I write honestly and give them the ugly truth, people will get hurt. People that I love, people that have already suffered in the worst possible ways. Do I do this, or do I walk away? Taking my secrets to the grave.’ Marley is an adult contemporary romance. It contains content suitable only for grownups with an open mind. There are scenes of group sex which include m/f/m a little bit of f/m/m and even some f/f/f/m/m/f/f/f. There is drinking and drug taking involved. A lot of swearing, some Essex slang and some very high emotion. Please don’t complain after reading this book that you wasn’t warned. And yes, of course you’ll need tissues.

    Guided by an ancient parchment written in mysterious code and accompanied by their faithful guide Lao Xu, the three explorers encounter subterranean phenomenon, prehistoric animals, and vast underground seas. "A Journey to the Center of the Earth" is one of Jules Verne's best-known works and one of the most classic tales of adventure ever written. Mandarin Companion is a series of easy-to-read novels in Chinese that are fun to read and proven to accelerate language learning. Every book in the Mandarin Companion series is carefully written to use characters, words, and grammar that a learner is likely to know. Level 2 is intended for Chinese learners at a low intermediate level, equivalent to roughly two to three years of formal study. Most learners who have been able to fluidly read Mandarin Companion Level 1 should be able to read this book. This series is designed to combine simplicity of characters with an easy-to-understand storyline that helps learners grow their vocabulary and language comprehension abilities. The more they read, the better they will become at reading and grasping the Chinese language.

    Her book practically writes itself. She marries her gorgeous agent. Her name is on all of the best seller lists. Billionaire author Jay McCallister takes an interest in her meteoric rise to fame and invites her into his world of alien-believing celebrities. Her life changes forever when he tells her that they were both created inside of a laboratory. These authors are embedding an alien genetic code within the pages of their novels that originated from Nazi Germany because... The time has come. They are here.

    She can’t wait to become a witch, but she is nearly eighteen and still has no magical powers. What seems really strange to her is that her witch parents don't seem to be worried at all.On the first day of school, she notices a guy, too old to be a student. He watches her from afar – sometimes with a smirk, sometimes with a frown on his handsome face. The question is – what does he want from her? Her best friend Connie thinks it’s merely an innocent flirt, but something tells Nicky that the answer is more complicated than that.

    The world was 'somewhere inside his skull. And it hurt.' These poems and dramatic sketches, however, delight even when they hurt" -- ROSMARIE WALDROP"BORIS BY THE SEA was born when Aesop was reading Chekhov, and Chekhov was reading Nietzsche, and Nietzsche was watching The Brother From Another Planet. Actually Matvei Yankelevich wrote this book, but 'wrote' is incomplete... he seems more to inhabit this stateless, beautiful being who uses language to move his body or erase the sea: 'Boris looked over himself and realized there were many parts of him that he could not see. And only a small part of these parts was on the surface.' BORIS BY THE SEA could be a children's fable if it weren't so freakin' real, unreal, hyper-real: 'But people need each other to open each other up and see what is inside.' This is Boris--and he, like Pinnochio--has a clever master." -- ROBERT FITTERMANMatvei Yankelevich's first full-length book, BORIS BY THE SEA, is a work of existential theater that destroys the distance between puppeteer and puppet, between ego and id, between what is real and what is absurd. Consisting of prose, poems, and plays, the book creates its own world and then confronts the loneliness of having to exist within one's own creation. Like Daniil Kharms, Yankelevich has written a children's book for only the bravest of adults.

    I also hope that it will serve as a useful reference too for the many workers engaged in one type of solid state research activity or another, who may be without formal training in the subject.

    Readers will get tips on how to play games on the site, how to adopt a puffle, decorate their igloo, and much more. Full color.

    To his horror, Lord Plep has been reincarnated as a dog - a Jack Russell / Rat Terrier mix to be exact, and when he is adopted by an elderly woman, gains the reputation of being a psychic dog for his ability to find her neighbors' lost eyeglasses and keys. But when something far more precious is lost, Libby is called upon to use her amazing skills for something truly important. My First Christmas is the first book in the holiday series Libby the Psychic Dog. It was written for adults, though there is no offensive language and only one mild amorous reference. This ebook also contains an excerpt from A.L. Jambor's “The Body in the Bungalow,” A Divine Detective Agency Mystery Short.

    Those dead can't hit back.At the age of fourteen I became addicted to amphetamine and for the next twenty years took up to 100 tablets a day. Drugs led me into a bizarre life of crime and lunacy. As my addiction took its toll I fell from being a wealthy playboy with everything money could buy to living in the Salvation Army Missions, ending up on the streets with the winos for over five years. Why did all this happen to me? Looking at young children today I wonder if some of them are just a few years away from a similar roller coaster hell-ride. What distinguishes them from the others, the normal children?

    The item is Brand New Paperback International/South Asian Edition textbook with 100 % identical Contents as US Edition. Shipped Same Day. Will be dispatched fast. 100% Satisfaction. Great Customer Service, Buy with Confidence, Front Cover May Differ. Ships to PO or APO. May have printed "NOT FOR SALE OUTSIDE of INDIA" or Territorial Disclaimer.

    Worked examples and exercises support the text. An ELBS/LPBB edition is available.

    

    Morgan takes boys and girls where they have never been before—right into the game they love!Will Noah and Violet finally defeat Daniel and his crew of rainbow griefers?Violet and Noah’s village is celebrating the new amusement park opening in town. Everyone is enjoying the fun rides and tasty food. But when Noah spots a rainbow griefer in the village carrying blocks of TNT, the celebration suddenly stops. Before the townspeople can do anything about the dangerous interloper, the roller coaster explodes!The accident with the roller coaster is blamed on Noah and Violet’s frequent enemy, Daniel. The duo must stop Daniel and his new crop of rainbow griefers before they do anymore damage to the village—or the world of Minecraft. Things get tricky when Noah and Violet get a message from an old friend who needs their help.Can Noah and Violet come to the aide of their friend while saving their village? It will be a team effort to stop the rainbow griefers in this battle, but are the Minecrafters up for the challenge? Find out in this thrilling fourth installment of the League of Griefers series!Sky Pony Press, with our Good Books, Racehorse and Arcade imprints, is proud to publish a broad range of books for young readers—picture books for small children, chapter books, books for middle grade readers, and novels for young adults. Our list includes bestsellers for children who love to play Minecraft; stories told with LEGO bricks; books that teach lessons about tolerance, patience, and the environment, and much more.In particular, this adventure series is created especially for readers who love the fight of good vs. evil, magical academies like Hogwarts in the Harry Potter saga, and games like Minecraft, Terraria, and Pokemon GO. While not every title we publish becomes a New York Times bestseller or a national bestseller, we are committed to books on subjects that are sometimes overlooked and to authors whose work might not otherwise find a home.

    She was going to stay away from magic, become a successful interior designer in a big city, and maybe finally learn how to waltz. But then, her magic acts up—without her permission—leaving her without a job and a plan.Coming home was never in the stars. But when her aunt calls, Cassie packs up her stuff and heads to Crooked Windows Inn. Maybe with a little peace and quiet, and a remodeling gig, she can get her magic (and life) back under control.But the universe is clearly out to get her!Not only has she picked up an annoying cat sidekick, but then her childhood nemesis comes back into her life in the form of the (hot) new handyman, and things just can’t get any worse.That is, until one of the inn’s guests turns up dead and Cassie’s aunt is the prime suspect.Now Cassie has no choice but to take the matters into her own magical hands.Can she solve the case before her aunt is arrested for a crime she didn’t commit?If you love a little magic and wit with your murder, you’ll love this brand new paranormal witch cozy mysteries series from USA Today bestselling author, Valia Lind!