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    Essentially, you make an initial guess, and then get more data to improve it. Bayes Theorem, or Bayes Rule, has a ton of real world applications, from estimating your risk of a heart attack to making recommendations on Netflix But It Isn't That Complicated This book is a short introduction to Bayes Theorem. It is only 15 pages long, and is intended to show you how Bayes Theorem works as quickly as possible. The examples are intentionally kept simple to focus solely on Bayes Theorem without requiring that the reader know complicated probability distributions. If you want to learn the basics of Bayes Theorem as quickly as possible, with some easy to duplicate examples, this is a good book for you.

    No reporter, who flew in, contacted a few dissidents, and flew out again, could ever match his experience, insight, or personal adventures. His book, For The Love Of Prague, is part love story, part history, part a record of national lunacy, and part terror. It is all true, with real names, real people, and real incidents. The New York Times, in a two-thirds page illustrated story, hailed it as a spicy, funny memoir! About the Author: Gene Deitch is an Oscar-winning animation film director and scenarist. He is a voting member of the Motion Picture Academy of Arts and Scientists. In the early 1950s he was Creative Director of UPA s New York studio, where among his many gold-medal winning films were the famous Bert & Harry Piels beer commercials. His TV commercials were the first ever shown at the New York Museum of Modern Art. In 1956 CBS purchased the Terrytoons animation studio and named Gene Deitch as its Creative Director. Under his supervision and direction, the studio produced 18 CinemaScope cartoons per year for 20th Century-Fox, and won its very first Oscar nomination. He personally created and directed the Tom Terrific series for the CBS nationwide Captain Kangaroo show. Tom Terrific, with Mighty Manfred the Wonder Dog, was the very first animated serial for network television. In 1958 he set up his own studio, Gene Deitch Associates, inc., in New York.

    Petersburg was the haunt of poets, artists, and musicians, a place to meet, drink, read, brawl, celebrate, and stage performances of all kinds. It has since become a symbol of the extraordinary literary ferment of that time. It was then that Alexander Blok composed his apocalyptic sequence “Twelve”; that the futurists Velimir Khlebnikov and Vladimir Mayakovsky exploded language into bold new forms; that the lapidary lyrics of Osip Mandelstam and plangent love poems of Anna Akhmatova saw the light; that the electrifying Marina Tsvetaeva stunned and dazzled everyone. Boris Pasternak was also of this company, putting together his great youthful hymn to nature, My Sister, Life. It was a transforming moment—not just for Russian but for world poetry—but a short-lived one. Within little more than a decade, revolution and terror were to disperse, silence, and destroy almost all the poets of the Stray Dog cabaret.

    Andrew Lang was the foremost scholar in folklore and mythology of his time. Many of the earliest books, particularly those dating back to the 1900s and before, are now extremely scarce and increasingly expensive. We are republishing these classic works in affordable, high quality, modern editions, using the original text and artwork.

    BradyGames’ World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King Official Strategy Guide includes the following: Complete coverage of each race, with strengths, weaknesses, and more.WEAPONS: Discover the awesome battery of weapons and armor, with detailed equipment listsNORTHREND EXPLORED: In-depth information on quests, bosses, and treasuresNEW DUNGEONS: Instances and Raid roles explained plus locations and strategyCOMPLETE CRAFTING COVERAGE: Every recipe for every crafting professionPlatform: PCGenre: Role-Playing Game

    The stories are the perfect length for reading aloud in a classroom or at bedtime. With lots of humour and fantastic characters, these will appeal to newly confident readers to read alone as well as to younger children being read to.Enid Blyton remains one of Britain's favourite children's authors and her bumper short story collections are perfect for introducing her to the latest generation of readers.

    When the movie was released in 1939 by MGM, few could have foreseen that it would retain such enduring appeal. Yet over 60 years on, a third generation is being raised on Dorothy's adventures with the Scarecrow, the Tin Man and the Munchkins. This full version of the original screenplay is for families, schools and children's drama groups to enjoy.

    Nurture your ability to embrace differences. Seek out challenges--scale one mountain after another. Face challenges that matter-- learn to "fight with real swords." These and other lessons were the constants in the life of Konosuke Matsushita, founder of the Panasonic business empire. In this first complete English translation of "The Path," Matsushita's timeless advice will benefit anyone who desires to lead better by living better.For the first time in English, the complete translation of one of the most popular and important management books ever published.In Japan, the name Konosuke Matsushita is spoken with a hushed reverence. Even now, twenty-one years after his death, Matsushita-san is praised by some as "the god of management," and he remains one of the most influential and inspirational business thinkers ever. Founder and father of the global corporation Panasonic, Matsushita saw the creation of wealth not as a goal or destination but as a voyage. And in "The Path," Matsushita shared the wisdom and insights acquired on his journey: how to inspire true innovation at all levels, manage through difficult times, and create lasting value and a great legacy.Written humbly from a platform of accomplishment virtually unparalleled among businesspersons, "The Path" demonstrates to readers today the many ways each of us can find within ourselves the strength and focus to do good by doing well. Brief, beautifully stated chapters offer an unconventional management philosophy that you can apply universally, as well as to specific everyday situations: When You Have to Make Important Decisions To Further Improve Your Work To Cultivate a Spirit of Independence To Further Expand Your Business For the Country to Prosper For more than four decades, "The Path" has been a perennial bestseller, with nearly 4.5 million copies sold worldwide. Presented here in its entirety for the first time in English, this book offers an enlightening and informative spiritual blueprint for entrepreneurs, executives, managers, and anyone who wishes to learn from a great master. Follow "The Path." It may lead you--and help you lead others--to professional success and personal fulfillment.

    s/t: Plato's original story of the lost city, continent, empire

    It features Top 10 best of everything in Lisbon.

    Tolkien written by Lin Carter. It was 1st published in paper by Ballantine in 3/69 & went thru numerous additional printings. It was among the earliest full-length critical works devoted to Tolkien's fantasies, the 1st to set his writings in their proper context in the history of fantasy. It was the earliest of three studies by Carter devoted to fantasy/horror writers & the history of fantasy, being followed by Lovecraft: A Look Behind the Cthulhu Mythos ('72) & Imaginary Worlds: The Art of Fantasy ('73), establishing him as an authority on the genre, indirectly leading to his editorial guidance of the Ballantine Adult Fantasy series. Gollancz published a cloth edition updated by Adam Roberts in 8/03. The study serves as an introduction for those unfamiliar with Tolkien's work. An introduction briefly reviews the publishing phenomenon of The Lord of the Rings & its popularity in the wake of the 1st paper editions in the '60s, after which he devotes three chapters to a short biography of the author thru the late '60s, including an account of how it was written. Four chapters explaining Middle-earth & summarizing the stories of The Hobbit & the three volumes of The Lord of the Rings follow, for the benefit of readers who may not have actually read the works. Carter next turns to the question of what the works are, a point of some confusion at the time. The then-current vogue for realistic fiction provided critics with few tools for evaluating an out-&-out fantasy on its own terms. Attempts to deconstruct it as a satire or allegory were rife. Carter firmly debunks these efforts, supporting his argument by drawing on Tolkien's own published ruminations on fantasy's functions & purposes. He then contextualizes the works by sketching the history of written fantasy from its earliest appearance in the epic poetry of the ancient world thru the heroic poetry of the Dark & the prose romances of the Middle Ages, down to the fairy tales, ghost stories & gothic novels of the early modern era & the rediscovery of the genre by writers of the 19-20th centuries prior to & contemporary with Tolkien. The origins of the modern genre are discovered in the writings of Wm Morris, Lord Dunsany & E.R. Eddison & followed thru the works of authors they influenced, including H.P. Lovecraft, Fletcher Pratt, L. Sprague de Camp & Mervyn Peake. Carter next highlights some of Tolkien's particular debts to his predecessors, tracing the motifs & names he utilizes back to their beginnings in Norse mythology & highlighting other echoes in his work deriving from legend & history. Finally noted is Tolkien's influence on contemporary fantasy, which was just beginning to make itself felt, primarily in the juvenile fantasies of Carol Kendall, Alan Garner & Lloyd Alexander.

    Biography of Tamora Pierce, who has written twenty-three young adult fantasy novels, in addition to many short stories, articles, and radio plays.

    The work of Yagyῡ Munenori from 1632 concerns martial arts and military science. It is translated by Thomas Cleary and can be found tucked behind Miyamoto Musashi‘s “the Book of five rings” from 1643. Both these texts analyse conflict between two men armed with swords and scale this up bigger battles. These important treaties on swordsmanship, and have been taken as giving lessons on life in general.